2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, all of the data is available in this post above. Check how closely CANSIPS resembles Modoki data set.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Basin-wide, similarly to this...1982-1983 was very east-based, and even that had some fierce winter mixed in. December was pretty snowy in my area and of course the Feb blizzard....something to keep in mind given it was the one very strong warm ENSO without a pronounced +WPO, and we seem to have seen a decadal shift the north Pacific over the past couple of years.

1982-83 was a classical backloaded winter in the mid-Atlantic. In addition to the February blizzard, there was a snow/freeze event on April 19-20. Places as far south as North Carolina got a hard freeze.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO def. in the CFS camp by the look of NDJ, which is what I would expect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I binned my El Nino composites by weak, mod, strong and intense.....the CFS looks exactly like the "strong" composite at 500mb (1957, 1965, 1986, 1987, 1991, 2009, 2023).

 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO def. in the CFS camp by the look of NDJ, which is what I would expect.

 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1982-83 was a classical backloaded winter in the mid-Atlantic. In addition to the February blizzard, there was a snow/freeze event on April 19-20. Places as far south as North Carolina got a hard freeze.

Regarding super strength El Niño seasons, 1957-8, 1972-3 and 1982-3 were all fantastic to historic in the SE overall relative to climo in terms of wintry precip. Also, Feb of 1889 had a major snow in the SE. 1965-6 had historic cold in late Jan. In addition, Jan and especially Feb of 1958 were quite cold! Most importantly, they are usually wet, which we so desperately need to relieve the drought!

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't resign yourself to a lost season-just accept that we likely aren't getting much in the way of sustained cold.

Hey personally while I love sustained cold, don't have to have it. The snow is the bigger thing for me. I just don't want a 72-73 or 97-98 1.2" snow total...it seems super niños are boom or bust where I am.

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def. a risk with a pumped STJ....see 2016. More often than not, that is more of a worry for NNE.

72-73..Southeast did well with snow. What happened in NY Metro was either supression or just not enough cold air when precip arrived. Tons of rainstorms. 97-98 was similar

[FPizz]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Epitomizes your online contributions over the course of the past two decades....what a waste of a degree. Plenty of highly esteemed contributors like @bluewaveand @raindancewx are pretty painfully objective with regard to east coast winter prospects...it's not about that. You just don't offer much value not because you aren't capable, but you allocate all of your time and energy towards mindless trolling.

When he posts on 33 hes better because hes afraid of the 2 guys in charge.  Its quite funny.

[LakePaste25]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

When he posts on 33 hes better because hes afraid of the 2 guys in charge.  Its quite funny.

Oh, I know...he has a lot to offer...he used to DM me some times in the lead up to large events. He just doesn't take this site seriously, which is fine, but in that case just lurk.

[40/70 Benchmark]

How do you access 33? I had a membership over there, but all I can find is the X and Facebook accounts....

[Typhoon Tip]

Super duper bust?

Moderate ENSO might still be able to penetrate RONI 

[csnavywx]

3 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

72-73..Southeast did well with snow. What happened in NY Metro was either supression or just not enough cold air when precip arrived. Tons of rainstorms. 97-98 was similar

Early trade wind pattern in this event certainly looked like 72-73. Then tilted more towards 97-98. It's a souped up version of those older canonical events, imo, if superimposed on a warmer background state. Problem is I think the warm pool is coming even further east than '98 did (that event got to about 150W) and it will drag everything else into resonance with it, so makes a straight shot comparison more muddled.

[csnavywx]

Case in point. We were slightly behind 97/98 with thermocline depression. That year took a break in July before turning the turbojets back on. This one doesn't appear to be taking a breather.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

Early trade wind pattern in this event certainly looked like 72-73. Then tilted more towards 97-98. It's a souped up version of those older canonical events, imo, if superimposed on a warmer background state. Problem is I think the warm pool is coming even further east than '98 did (that event got to about 150W) and it will drag everything else into resonance with it, so makes a straight shot comparison more muddled.

Yea, I was saying it would end up centered around 140W.

[BlizzardWx]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I was saying it would end up centered around 140W.

I think stuff like this is where past analogs could fall short. This basically has never happened, so while I wouldn't say past analogs have no utility we have to be careful to not oversubscribe what we know. We may well see equatorial convection further east than has ever been seen, and so forcing will be uniquely far to the east as well. My comment isn't being directed at you btw, just in general, a caution for all. 

[snowman19]

Region 3.4 record-breaking:
 

Region 1+2 also off the charts, the only El Niño event in history that was warmer in 1+2 at this point in time was 1997 and it wasn’t warmer by much

 

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Case in point. We were slightly behind 97/98 with thermocline depression. That year took a break in July before turning the turbojets back on. This one doesn't appear to be taking a breather.

This event is in runaway strengthening. The subsurface warmth is just as crazy as the surface warmth in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. And we are about to see a barrage of TC’s that are just going to keep reinforcing the WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs. That 30C isotherm is going to reach 140W easily this fall…


 

 

 

 

 

 

@LakePaste25 30kt westerlies to 120W lol

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I think stuff like this is where past analogs could fall short. This basically has never happened, so while I wouldn't say past analogs have no utility we have to be careful to not oversubscribe what we know. We may well see equatorial convection further east than has ever been seen, and so forcing will be uniquely far to the east as well. My comment isn't being directed at you btw, just in general, a caution for all. 

Yes, I hear that....but first of all,  I feel as though at this range, the reluctance to forecast an event of an unprecedented magnitude/nature should take precedence with any ultimate capitulation reserved for closer lead times. In other words....in July, it's safer to heavily incorporate analogs and if it still looks unprecedented later this summer and into the fall, then revisit. Secondly, this is just me musing when I offer guesstimates in the forum like that...it's not as though I'm issuing any type of published forecast online or anything. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This event is in runaway strengthening. The subsurface warmth is just as crazy as the surface warmth in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. And we are about to see a barrage of TC’s that are just going to keep reinforcing the WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs. That 30C isotherm is going to reach 140W easily this fall…


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Nino 1+2 regions not fully cooling off from 2023-2024 super El Nino for the first time was an early signal something was different this time.

Notice how much warmer Nino 1+2 was in 2025 than all the previous years following super El Niños.

Almost like a bridge between the two super El Niños only three years apart.

 

 

[LakePaste25]

5 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I think stuff like this is where past analogs could fall short. This basically has never happened, so while I wouldn't say past analogs have no utility we have to be careful to not oversubscribe what we know. We may well see equatorial convection further east than has ever been seen, and so forcing will be uniquely far to the east as well. My comment isn't being directed at you btw, just in general, a caution for all. 

1877-78 is probably the closest to an extreme east based event. Unfortunately I cannot change the 1991-2020 climatology for this map (not an option), so you have to extrapolate that the anomalies in Nino 3 here were likely extreme for its time since the baseline SST’s have warmed since then. 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Incredibly impressive on the YTD for CONUS-wide average. Nearly 3F above the 1991-2020 mean. With Nino heating for the second half of the year, you have to think there is a real chance for warmest year on record. Current record is +2.21F (relative to 91-20 average), set in 2024.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, I hear that....but first of all,  I feel as though at this range, the reluctance to forecast an event of an unprecedented magnitude/nature should take precedence with any ultimate capitulation reserved for closer lead times. In other words....in July, it's safer to heavily incorporate analogs and if it still looks unprecedented later this summer and into the fall, then revisit. Secondly, this is just me musing when I offer guesstimates in the forum like that...it's not as though I'm issuing any type of published forecast online or anything. 

Since we are very likely going to be in uncharted territory by early November with the warm pool pushed all the way to 140W (along with a record-breaking super El Niño in place for that matter), we aren’t going to know how the atmosphere reacts to that massive change in the global heat budget and the realignment of the ENSO Hadley Cell….where does it put the main forcing/standing wave convection? How far east does it go? We are going to have to wait and see what happens at that point in time….
 

[GaWx]

A Cold Atlantic Anomaly Returns as Super El Niño Shapes Winter 2026/2027 Early Forecast Signals

Together, the Atlantic cold blob and Super El Niño signals are already giving strong early hints for Winter 2026/2027 pressure and temperature across the United States, Canada, and Europe.

If we look at the actual observation image below, it shows the real ocean temperature trends over time. It looks nearly identical to the model simulation of a weakening AMOC. This supports the fact that the AMOC is indeed weakening, even faster than first anticipated.

This temperature signature of the warm Gulf Stream area and cold North Atlantic is one of the strongest indicators of the AMOC weakening.

Data shows the formation and growth of a new “cold blob” pattern, forecast to last into 2027.

You can see a very clear cold ocean anomaly, stretching back towards the Gulf Stream area. This anomaly is much larger than last year, continuing the long-term cooling trend of the subpolar North Atlantic.

You can see that the main cold area is linked back into the Gulf Stream and towards the east coast of the United States.

Below is an even more dramatic analysis image. It shows the 1-year difference in surface temperature for the last week of June. This shows that the North Atlantic is much colder currently than it was this time last year. What stands out most is the Gulf Stream area, which shows several degrees lower temperatures compared to last year.

North Atlantic Cold Anomaly and Super El Niño Forecast

North American Pattern: Where Ocean and Atmosphere Collide

The atmospheric pattern we found the connection to is called the Pacific-North American pattern, or PNA.

This basically tells us that a Fall cold blob anomaly in the Atlantic corresponds to a positive PNA pattern in Winter.

Not meaning that the cold anomaly itself is responsible for a colder winter over the eastern United States, but it can be like an indicator of what is to come.

But this year, we have a far stronger driver on the rise, the Super El Niño. Below is the analysis of the winter period during the last 4 Super El Niño events. You can actually see a very similar pattern to the +PNA above. 

 

Below is the December 2026 pressure forecast from the ECMWF model that we used above for the ocean temperatures. We also added the CanSIPS model to compare different predictions. You can see that both forecasts show a strong positive PNA pattern, with a high-pressure system over Canada, a deep low in the North Pacific, and a low-pressure zone over the central and southern United States.

We can add another model into the mix, the CFS from the United States CPCcenter, which covers the whole Winter 2026/2027 period. Below is the pressure forecast that again shows an identical pattern to the two predictions above, with a clear Super El Niño pattern and a positive PNA over North America, with a ridge into Europe.

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/atlantic-anomaly-and-super-el-nino-shaping-early-winter-2026-2027-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

@snowman19@40/70 Benchmark

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

A Cold Atlantic Anomaly Returns as Super El Niño Shapes Winter 2026/2027 Early Forecast Signals

Together, the Atlantic cold blob and Super El Niño signals are already giving strong early hints for Winter 2026/2027 pressure and temperature across the United States, Canada, and Europe.

If we look at the actual observation image below, it shows the real ocean temperature trends over time. It looks nearly identical to the model simulation of a weakening AMOC. This supports the fact that the AMOC is indeed weakening, even faster than first anticipated.

This temperature signature of the warm Gulf Stream area and cold North Atlantic is one of the strongest indicators of the AMOC weakening.

Data shows the formation and growth of a new “cold blob” pattern, forecast to last into 2027.

You can see a very clear cold ocean anomaly, stretching back towards the Gulf Stream area. This anomaly is much larger than last year, continuing the long-term cooling trend of the subpolar North Atlantic.

You can see that the main cold area is linked back into the Gulf Stream and towards the east coast of the United States.

Below is an even more dramatic analysis image. It shows the 1-year difference in surface temperature for the last week of June. This shows that the North Atlantic is much colder currently than it was this time last year. What stands out most is the Gulf Stream area, which shows several degrees lower temperatures compared to last year.

North Atlantic Cold Anomaly and Super El Niño Forecast

North American Pattern: Where Ocean and Atmosphere Collide

The atmospheric pattern we found the connection to is called the Pacific-North American pattern, or PNA.

This basically tells us that a Fall cold blob anomaly in the Atlantic corresponds to a positive PNA pattern in Winter.

Not meaning that the cold anomaly itself is responsible for a colder winter over the eastern United States, but it can be like an indicator of what is to come.

But this year, we have a far stronger driver on the rise, the Super El Niño. Below is the analysis of the winter period during the last 4 Super El Niño events. You can actually see a very similar pattern to the +PNA above. 

 

Below is the December 2026 pressure forecast from the ECMWF model that we used above for the ocean temperatures. We also added the CanSIPS model to compare different predictions. You can see that both forecasts show a strong positive PNA pattern, with a high-pressure system over Canada, a deep low in the North Pacific, and a low-pressure zone over the central and southern United States.

We can add another model into the mix, the CFS from the United States CPCcenter, which covers the whole Winter 2026/2027 period. Below is the pressure forecast that again shows an identical pattern to the two predictions above, with a clear Super El Niño pattern and a positive PNA over North America, with a ridge into Europe.

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/atlantic-anomaly-and-super-el-nino-shaping-early-winter-2026-2027-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

@snowman19@40/70 Benchmark

Just be careful with that severe-weather-weenie site.

[GaWx]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just be careful with that severe-weather-weenie site.

 Ray, Good advice! I’m careful with potential bias of forecasts from any source, especially internet based looking for clicks or likes ($).

 This source is putting some emphasis on the cooling N Atlantic and AMO decline tendencies as an additional important factor to consider for especially the E US, something I haven’t seen a whole lot here and elsewhere (not specifically you though). So, this gives a different perspective (both Atlantic and Pacific influences) from most discussions I’ve seen with lots of support from both historic data and latest forecasts from 3 of the most widely followed seasonal models, none of which are warm this winter as a whole for the bulk of the E US. Also, note that this article from a European source also includes warm maps for the upcoming European winter.

[snowman19]

[dmillz25]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How do you access 33? I had a membership over there, but all I can find is the X and Facebook accounts....

It’s on discord now if you want the link ill dm it to you