2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

The latest CFSv2 release has actually cooled ~0.15 to 0.20 vs that from the start of June for the periods starting with JJA:

June 1st release: relative peak ~+3.0 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.25 DJF

Today’s release: relative peak ~+2.8 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.1 DJF

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The latest CFSv2 release has actually cooled ~0.15 to 0.20 vs that from the start of June for the periods starting with JJA:

June 1st release: peak ~+3.0 (OND)

Today’s release: peak ~+2.8 (OND)

From someone who has, for better or worse, followed the Cfs2 forecast follies over the years, the  bias corrected SSTA plumes have almost always been more accurate, whether warmer or cooler. Fwiw

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The latest CFSv2 release has actually cooled ~0.15 to 0.20 vs that from the start of June for the periods starting with JJA:
June 1st release: relative peak ~+3.0 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.25 DJF


Today’s release: relative peak ~+2.8 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.1 DJF

@forkyfork I wonder what the models will show once this current WWB and the new DWKW that has formed does their “dirty work”? There is some major strengthening and warming about to come

And once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to constructively interfere with the El Nino/Bjerknes feedback

 

 

 

 

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

If you read the comments from the original poster of the video, there are pics from the 1950s of boats catching them in the same region.  So it has happened before and reading other comments it doesn't seem like this is a very rare thing, but doesn't happen yearly.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

 Just to clarify to insure appropriate context:

-There’s no doubt that currently Nino 3.4 is very warm for so early in the year. But keep in mind that Eliot’s chart showing the current warmth is from a combination of GW and El Nino. On that basis, it’s clear that Nino 3.4 is by a good margin the warmest on record.

-But the best way to compare to past years as far as just El Niño component, itself, is to look at the relative anomalies for the same point in the year. Currently, relative 3.4 is ~+1.0. I’ll now compare to other weeklies, which go back to 1982:

09JUN1982      1.0

11JUN1997        0.8

10JUN2015        0.6

14JUN2023       0.4

 So, going back to 1982, 2026 is currently near the warmest on record about tied with 1982, which is itself obviously quite notable.

 To go back further, I need to look at relative monthlies. So, these won’t give as precise a comparison, but they’re still worth mentioning. Currently, the CFS is projecting June of 2026 to be ~+0.95. I’ll now compare to some past June relatives:

1957   6   1.13

1965   6   1.09 

1972   6   0.98

 So, 2026 is projected for June, alone, to be slightly cooler than 1957/1965 and ~same as 1972.

 So, folks need to be careful to not let others deceive you. The current El Niño strength is by no means out on its own and is instead in the general vicinity of 1982, 1972, 1965, and 1957 for the warmest since 1950.

 Going back further is less reliable for comparison purposes. But per Eric Webb’s MJJ 3.4 anomalies, one could argue that 1877, 1902, 1905, and 1941 could have easily been similar, if not warmer than 2026 in mid June. There’s a good chance that 1877 was a bit warmer and some chance that 1905 was slightly warmer in mid June.

 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

 Today’s -29 is the 33rd straight day with a sub -5 SOI. Tomorrow will make 34. That’s pretty historic because that will make it the 3rd longest sub -5 streak on record back to 1991! The only two longer ones were in 1997-8 and they were extremely long: 51 and 42 days, respectively.

 The beauty of the SOI is that it doesn’t appear to be strongly affected by CC. Thus it doesn’t need a RONI-like adjustment to remain a good indicator of ENSO strength.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

except for those two peaks that are higher 

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh, I think I know what he meant - it just wasn’t at first clear he meant the 3 SD itself 

[csnavywx]

On 6/10/2026 at 5:55 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The 3 el ninos in the 82-92 period were all robust, though. The 88-89 la nina happened after the 2nd event. That's the only time really that robust el ninos were so close to each other. It will be interesting to see, after this el nino event, if the same pattern follows, and get such a strong la nina.

It's possible. I'm kind of leaning that way this time since we're likely to get a fully coupled and canonical ('97-like) full warm pool discharge and it will take some time for that to recover.

[snowman19]

 

The WPAC DWKW looks real healthy now…..

 

[GaWx]

 Despite being steady last 7 days, I predict that 3.4 will warm by 0.3 in Mon’s update because of how the weeks compare.

[roardog]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Despite being steady last 7 days, I predict that 3.4 will warm by 0.3 in Mon’s update because of how the weeks compare.

Does it look like the extreme -SOI will continue? It'll be interesting to see how low the 30 day average will go?

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, roardog said:

Does it look like the extreme -SOI will continue? It'll be interesting to see how low the 30 day average will go?

 Models are suggesting -SOI will lessen. There’s chance -SOI will end 6/16. If so, could be 6 days of +SOI before goes back -.

 Guessing per models

6/14: -15 to -20

6/15: -6 to -13

6/16: +5 to -6

6/17: +8 to -5

6/18: +16 to +1

6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point)

6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

It was last year at this time when the PDO started its dump. Interesting to see if we repeat. I know Larry uses Ncep(?) numbers, but I  think they pretty much followed the same trend as this graph. Feel fee to correct me Larry. 

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It was last year at this time when the PDO took its dump. Interesting to see if we repeat. I know Larry uses Ncep(?) numbers, but I  think they pretty much followed the same trend as this graph. Feel fee to correct me Larry. 

Yes, ncep ~-0.75 to -1 vs WCS

[Maestrobjwa]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Yes, ncep ~-0.75 to -1 vs WCS

Sheesh...what do we have to wait another decade to get outta this? Boo, lol

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It was last year at this time when the PDO started its dump. Interesting to see if we repeat. I know Larry uses Ncep(?) numbers, but I  think they pretty much followed the same trend as this graph. Feel fee to correct me Larry. 

 Mitch, the -0.75 to -1 is/was a general guide based on several years of data. However, I just did a new compare as it appears that ncep may have raised some of their months since I last looked closely and perhaps their methodology recently changed??:

7/25: ~-0.6

8/25: ~0

9/25: ~0

10/25: ~-0.3

11/25: ~0

12/25: ~+0.35

1/26: ~0

2/26:~-0.5

3/26: ~-0.6

4/26: ~-0.6

5/26: ~-0.7

 So range for 7/25-5/26 was -0.7 to +0.35! Avg ~-0.3.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

^ “Given the inability of the Anticyclone to exercise its normal duties at this time of year; warm waters are fully invading the Peruvian coastline and beginning to manifest off the north of #Chile.
On the other hand, with a different dynamic, the dissipation of the cold anomaly off the north of #Ecuador was also observed.
#Lima today Saturday, one week from the start of the astronomical winter, is seeing temperatures between 25°C and 27°C.
#ElNiño”

[roardog]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Mitch, the -0.75 to -1 is/was a general guide based on several years of data. However, I just did a new compare as it appears that ncep may have raised some of their months since I last looked closely and perhaps their methodology recently changed??:

7/25: ~-0.6

8/25: ~0

9/25: ~0

10/25: ~-0.3

11/25: ~0

12/25: ~+0.35

1/26: ~0

2/26:~-0.5

3/26: ~-0.6

4/26: ~-0.6

5/26: ~-0.7

 So range for 7/25-5/26 was -0.7 to +0.35! Avg ~-0.3.

 

 

 

That seems like a huge change. If they changed their methodology that much then it's hard to take the past numbers seriously. It's almost annoying actually. lol

[jaxjagman]

Im kinda skeptic you see any big change in the SST'S  in the east.Seems like we are fixing to see a WWB getting combatted with possibly a strong EWB,which is why you see the RMMS showing a decent signal into the WP when we get into July and beyond,other than that maybe a ERW off the Peruvian coast which could possibly warm  3 up,should not be much going on well into July

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Subsurface is warming again. Eastern subsurface is about to pop a +8c on TAO/Triton. If normal water is 65F, that's almost 80 degrees, 100 meters below the surface. In La nina it can possibly cool down to 55F, so it must be interesting the type of wildlife that has evolved there, along the equator. 

[buckeye]

Don ain’t buy’n it

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Don ain’t buy’n it

Idk Don, but even I must admit Don's in denial on this one Buckeye. 

[roardog]

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

Don ain’t buy’n it

So I actually looked this news article up and it’s kind of what I thought it was going to be. The headline isn’t what he said at all. Basically this guy says he expects a strong El Niño but a dry winter in Wyoming isn’t guaranteed since nothing is guaranteed in weather that far in advance. 

[bluewave]

The spring WWB data was just released. This event is interesting in that the WWBs were displaced a little further north and west off the equator than 2015 and 1997.

Those events were focused right on the equator. 2023 was driven by the unusual WWB closer to South America.

Also note the weaker zonal flow east of Japan with the strong ridging there driving the -PDO. Even though the WWB average was weaker than 2015 and 1997, the upper ocean warming has been faster especially near Nino 3.4.
 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

16 hours ago, mitchnick said:

It was last year at this time when the PDO started its dump. Interesting to see if we repeat. I know Larry uses Ncep(?) numbers, but I  think they pretty much followed the same trend as this graph. Feel fee to correct me Larry. 

If we're having an el nino that's supposedly going off the charts, then I don't expect the PDO to repeat the pattern of the last 2 years. If a record-breaking el nino can't flip the PDO, then it's time to start getting concerned that the -PDO is going to be permanent. Quite frankly, if a record-breaking el nino doesn't break the -PDO, I don't know what will.

[snowman19]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The spring WWB data was just released. This event is interesting in that the WWBs were displaced a little further north and west off the equator than 2015 and 1997.

Those events were focused right on the equator. 2023 was driven by the unusual WWB closer to South America.

Also note the weaker zonal flow east of Japan with the strong ridging there driving the -PDO. Even though the WWB average was weaker than 2015 and 1997, the upper ocean warming has been faster especially near Nino 3.4.
 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/

 

 

@csnavywx Brought up the off-equator WWBs a couple of weeks ago: 

“We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect.

I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”