2026-2027 Super El Nino

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It might not be as east-based as either of those two ENSO events, but there's still a lot of time before the anomalies peak. It looks solidly east-based, perhaps evolving into a basinwide event as it weakens. 

Yeah, we could have active forcing from the WPAC and CPAC over to the EPAC with how extensive the warm pool is forecast to become.

Notice how the pattern from the Great Lakes to the Northeast wasn’t all that different between 1997-1998 and 2023-2024.

Forcing either focused near the EPAC in 1997-1998 or more split like 2023-2024 between the WPAC and CPAC along with the EPAC yielded roughly similar results for the Great Lakes and Northeast. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

[forkyfork]

muh backyard snow

[snowman19]

All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru
 

 

^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data
@DHN_peru
All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.”

And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress:

 

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru
 

 

^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data
@DHN_peru
All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.”

And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress:

 

The ongoing and strengthening El Niño is already contributing to record warm ocean temperatures. Global sea surface temperatures are currently well ahead of those during the development of the 2023-24 El Niño.

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ongoing and strengthening El Niño is already contributing to record warm ocean temperatures. Global sea surface temperatures are currently well ahead of those during the development of the 2023-24 El Niño.

I don’t think the new EURO ONI/RONI projections are far-fetched at all given the massive SOI crash, the continued big WWBs, the new DWKW, the record warm subsurface, +IOD development, ++PMM, OLR anomalies, MJO/ERW constructive interference and the extremely rapid surface warming that has started. This event is showing signs of going into a “runaway” Bjerknes feedback loop. I would not be surprised if we are into a super El Niño by August 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru
 

 

^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data
@DHN_peru
All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.”

And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress:

 

 Levy is saying record high anom for Paita on 6/3-4/26. He doesn’t say how far back records go. And we’re certainly nowhere near the record anom for 1+2 overall for early June of 1983:

 The following are 1+2 monthly anoms

1983   5   28.26    3.85

1983   6   27.36    4.24

 

 And 1997 was quite warm, too:

1997   6   26.12    3.00

 

 These are weeklies

1983 much warmer

01JUN1983         4.4
 08JUN1983         4.0

1997 fairly comparable to current non-relative although this is warmer than current relative’s low 2s:

28MAY1997         2.6
04JUN1997         2.5
 11JUN1997         3.0

 
OISST 1+2 (non-relative) +2.6 (relative only in low +2s vs 4+ in ‘83):

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Levy is saying record high anom for Paita on 6/3-4/26. He doesn’t say how far back records go. And we’re certainly nowhere near the record anom for 1+2 overall for early June of 1983:

 The following are 1+2 monthly anoms

1983   5   28.26    3.85

1983   6   27.36    4.24

 

 And 1997 was quite warm, too:

1997   6   26.12    3.00

 

 These are weeklies

1983 much warmer

01JUN1983         4.4
 08JUN1983         4.0

1997 fairly comparable to current non-relative although this is warmer than current relative:

28MAY1997         2.6
04JUN1997         2.5
 11JUN1997         3.0

 
OISST 1+2 (non-relative) +2.6 (relative only in low +2s vs 4+ in ‘83):

I thought it was implicit in his tweet that he was speaking of daily anomalies in a very specific area and not region 1+2 overall. Nowhere in that tweet does he say region 1+2 overall

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Levy is saying record high anom for Paita on 6/3-4/26. He doesn’t say how far back records go. And we’re certainly nowhere near the record anom for 1+2 overall for early June of 1983:

 The following are 1+2 monthly anoms

1983   5   28.26    3.85

1983   6   27.36    4.24

 

 And 1997 was quite warm, too:

1997   6   26.12    3.00

 

 These are weeklies

1983 much warmer

01JUN1983         4.4
 08JUN1983         4.0

1997 fairly comparable to current non-relative although this is warmer than current relative:

28MAY1997         2.6
04JUN1997         2.5
 11JUN1997         3.0

 
OISST 1+2 (non-relative) +2.6 (relative only in low +2s vs 4+ in ‘83):

Gimme' 82/83 please! Surprise 7" in December then the Megalopolis storm in February. My brother and I had to push my late uncle's van during the Noon hour when BWI recorded 4" in that hour. Thunder and lightning all day was just surreal. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I thought it was implicit in his tweet that he was speaking of daily anomalies in a very specific area and not region 1+2 overall. Nowhere in that tweet does he say region 1+2

I think he was just pointing out that the entire 1+2 was cooler than 82/83.

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I thought it was implicit in his tweet that he was speaking of daily anomalies in a very specific area and not region 1+2 overall

 He was but my point is that Paita is just a very specific small area in the far edge of 1+2. It’s 1+2 that we follow because it matters significantly as far as Nino effects on the globe are concerned. And the current 1+2 is nowhere near record highs. I’m adding important context related to this tweet you posted. Without what I added, one could be fooled into thinking that 1+2 is at all-time highs, which is nowhere near true.

[GaWx]

 More on 97. Here were the monthlies:

                     1+2       3          4  

    3.4
1997   6   26.12    3.00   28.13    1.51   29.23    0.26   28.82    1.09
1997   7   25.59    3.63   27.90    2.09   29.37    0.47   28.86    1.56
1997   8   24.96    3.96   27.71    2.59   29.29    0.50   28.75    1.89
1997   9   24.69    3.96   27.74    2.84   29.44    0.68   28.85    2.13
1997  10   24.69    3.67   28.06    3.08   29.34    0.58   29.08    2.36
1997  11   26.12    4.47   28.37    3.27   29.39    0.69   29.12    2.41
1997  12   27.06    4.25   28.53    3.30   29.11    0.57   28.89    2.29
1998   1   28.12    3.55   28.74    3.08   28.95    0.64   28.93    2.38
1998   2   28.74    2.64   28.90    2.49   28.79    0.59   28.78    2.03

 1+2 (peak 4.47) and 3 (peak 3.3) were way, way stronger than 4, which remained just wk (peak 0.69) and even way stronger than 3.4 (peak 2.41)!

 The forecast for ‘26 is much stronger in 3.4/4 and stronger in 3, but not as strong in 1+2:

Per latest Euro, here are peak non-rel. monthlies:

1+2: 3.9

3:    3.9

3.4: 3.7

4:    2.4

 That’s only a contrast of 1.5 from E to W compared to 3.8 in ‘97! And contrast from 1+2 to 3.4 is a mere 0.2 vs 2.1 in ‘97!! So, the prog is for ‘26 to be E based but way more balanced and thus not nearly as E based as the extremely E based ‘97.

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 More on 97. Here were the monthlies:
                     1+2       3          4  
    3.4
1997   6   26.12    3.00   28.13    1.51   29.23    0.26   28.82    1.09
1997   7   25.59    3.63   27.90    2.09   29.37    0.47   28.86    1.56
1997   8   24.96    3.96   27.71    2.59   29.29    0.50   28.75    1.89
1997   9   24.69    3.96   27.74    2.84   29.44    0.68   28.85    2.13
1997  10   24.69    3.67   28.06    3.08   29.34    0.58   29.08    2.36
1997  11   26.12    4.47   28.37    3.27   29.39    0.69   29.12    2.41
1997  12   27.06    4.25   28.53    3.30   29.11    0.57   28.89    2.29
1998   1   28.12    3.55   28.74    3.08   28.95    0.64   28.93    2.38
1998   2   28.74    2.64   28.90    2.49   28.79    0.59   28.78    2.03
 1+2 (peak 4.47) and 3 (peak 3.3) were way, way stronger than 4, which remained just wk (peak 0.69) and even way stronger than 3.4 (peak 2.41)!
 The forecast for ‘26 is much stronger in 3.4/4 and stronger in 3, but not as strong in 1+2:
Per latest Euro, here are peak non-rel. monthlies:
1+2: 3.9
3:    3.9
3.4: 3.7
4:    2.4
 That’s only a contrast of 1.5 from E to W compared to 3.8 in ‘97! And contrast from 1+2 to 3.4 is a mere 0.2 vs 2.1 in ‘97!! So, the prog is for ‘26 to be E based but way more balanced and thus not nearly as E based as the extremely E based ‘97.

I agree that it’s obviously not as strong in 1+2 as 1997 or 1982 thus far. The final result still to be determined, but this event is developing unlike anything we’ve seen since 1997. It is still decidedly east-based

From @csnavywx

“We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect.

I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”

[GaWx]

 The strong 3.4 OISST warming hasn’t stopped as it warmed 0.12 on 6/5, which means a whopping 0.5C warming 5/31-6/5! Mon’s weekly should be ~0.3 warmer (~0.8). 6/5 RONI equivalent is ~+1.0:

[raindancewx]

The very cold Western US + MX heatwave in June 2023 are nowhere to be found so far. It's been quite warm in the West so far this June, and the monsoon in Mexico has been in full swing at normal timing. Much of the West was 5F below average in June 2023.

Nino 4 was already about 30.0C in May - record warmth. Nino 3.4 finished below May 2015.

The precip pattern depicted on the June run for DJF looks like a blend of 1997-98, 2009-10, 2012-13, 2015-16. Looks to me like an MJO 6-7 blend with major +IOD contributions by East Africa.

 

 

The Canadian Update in June did move the greatest precipitation area v. means much further east in the tropics, which is a good sign for canonical El Nino impacts.

 

[GaWx]

 A freaky record breaking cold period for N of 80N just occurred May 23rd-June 4th per the image below (records back to 1958). I saw it mentioned by Bastardi but wanted to confirm it, myself. So, I went through the graphs for every year to confirm this and it turns out he’s right with that period averaging ~-6C, which is ~3.5C BN:

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 A freaky record breaking cold period for N of 80N just occurred May 23rd-June 4th per the image below (records back to 1958). I saw it mentioned by Bastardi but wanted to confirm it, myself. So, I went through the graphs for every year to confirm this and it turns out he’s right!

The thought that you would question the great JB's claim of a weather record setter is shocking, just shocking.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Massive round of -SOI.. 30-day below -18, which 23-24 never did. 15-16 peaked at -22. 97-98 is the next higher up (although there was 1-month strong dip in Feb 2005). 

6 Jun 2026	1013.94	1016.55	-27.42	-18.06	-9.05
5 Jun 2026	1012.20	1015.15	-29.81	-17.33	-8.44
4 Jun 2026	1010.52	1014.25	-35.29	-16.43	-7.77
3 Jun 2026	1010.14	1013.80	-34.80	-15.47	-7.10
2 Jun 2026	1012.48	1015.05	-27.13	-14.79	-6.56

 

What we have been calling -PDO may have actually been more of a -ENSO decadal state. 

82-83 is the real one to beat, that had a streak of 3/4 months <-30 SOI. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 A freaky record breaking cold period for N of 80N just occurred May 23rd-June 4th per the image below (records back to 1958). I saw it mentioned by Bastardi but wanted to confirm it, myself. So, I went through the graphs for every year to confirm this and it turns out he’s right with that period averaging ~-6C, which is ~3.5C BN:

Since the Aurora borealis in May 2024 associated with Solar Max, this big +AO pattern has been happening at the beginning of the warm season for the last 3 years. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Since the Aurora borealis in May 2024 associated with Solar Max, this big +AO pattern has been happening at the beginning of the warm season for the last 3 years. 

 Thanks, Chuck. Consistent with that, 2025 has by a large margin the strongest +AO for the period I was analyzing, May 23rd-June 4th from 1958 through 2026. That period in 2025 was chilly (~1.5C BN)  though not nearly as cold as the ~-3.5C of 2026. By the way, 2026 had the 4th strongest +AO of this period back to 1958 thus intuitively helping it be one of the coldest. 2023 had the 10th strongest +AO and was ~1C BN. 1994 had the 2nd strongest +AO but it was only ~0.5C BN. 1996 had the 3rd strongest +AO, but it was NN rather than cold. So, the correlation of +AO to cold N of 80B is far from perfect due to other factors coming into play as you very likely realize even though there’s still a decent partial correlation.

[GaWx]

On 6/3/2026 at 1:12 PM, GaWx said:

 The model progs are suggesting a shot at a 1017 mb Darwin SLP on June 7th. If that occurs, it would easily become the new highest Darwin SLP that early in the year based on records back to 1992. The current record highest that early in the year is 4/22/2023’s 1016.2 mb. If it reaches 1017, it would become the earliest 1017 on record by ~15 days!

It turns out that the models were right on as today’s Darwin SLP is 1017.70, the earliest that high so early in the season and the 6th highest on record:

7 Jun 2026

1014.05

1017.70

-34.73

 Darwin will be lower tomorrow. Based on history, that 1017.7 could easily end up the highest daily Darwin SLP of 2026. But there’s no telling for sure as an SLP that high remains possible through September.
 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^It updates at 2am?

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^It updates at 2am?

It sometimes updates later but, yes, it often does update in the middle of the night our time. The 24 hour period that each daily is based on evidently ends at about the average middays of Darwin and Tahiti.