2026-2027 Super El Nino

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It might not be as east-based as either of those two ENSO events, but there's still a lot of time before the anomalies peak. It looks solidly east-based, perhaps evolving into a basinwide event as it weakens. 

Yeah, we could have active forcing from the WPAC and CPAC over to the EPAC with how extensive the warm pool is forecast to become.

Notice how the pattern from the Great Lakes to the Northeast wasn’t all that different between 1997-1998 and 2023-2024.

Forcing either focused near the EPAC in 1997-1998 or more split like 2023-2024 between the WPAC and CPAC along with the EPAC yielded roughly similar results for the Great Lakes and Northeast. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

[forkyfork]

muh backyard snow

[snowman19]

All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru
 

 

^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data
@DHN_peru
All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.”

And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress:

 

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru
 

 

^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data
@DHN_peru
All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.”

And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress:

 

The ongoing and strengthening El Niño is already contributing to record warm ocean temperatures. Global sea surface temperatures are currently well ahead of those during the development of the 2023-24 El Niño.

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ongoing and strengthening El Niño is already contributing to record warm ocean temperatures. Global sea surface temperatures are currently well ahead of those during the development of the 2023-24 El Niño.

I don’t think the new EURO ONI/RONI projections are far-fetched at all given the massive SOI crash, the continued big WWBs, the new DWKW, the record warm subsurface, +IOD development, ++PMM, OLR anomalies, MJO/ERW constructive interference and the extremely rapid surface warming that has started. This event is showing signs of going into a “runaway” Bjerknes feedback loop. I would not be surprised if we are into a super El Niño by August 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru
 

 

^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data
@DHN_peru
All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.”

And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress:

 

 Levy is saying record high anom for Paita on 6/3-4/26. He doesn’t say how far back records go. And we’re certainly nowhere near the record anom for 1+2 overall for early June of 1983:

 The following are 1+2 monthly anoms

1983   5   28.26    3.85

1983   6   27.36    4.24

 

 And 1997 was quite warm, too:

1997   6   26.12    3.00

 

 These are weeklies

1983 much warmer

01JUN1983         4.4
 08JUN1983         4.0

1997 fairly comparable to current non-relative although this is warmer than current relative’s low 2s:

28MAY1997         2.6
04JUN1997         2.5
 11JUN1997         3.0

 
OISST 1+2 (non-relative) +2.6 (relative only in low +2s vs 4+ in ‘83):

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Levy is saying record high anom for Paita on 6/3-4/26. He doesn’t say how far back records go. And we’re certainly nowhere near the record anom for 1+2 overall for early June of 1983:

 The following are 1+2 monthly anoms

1983   5   28.26    3.85

1983   6   27.36    4.24

 

 And 1997 was quite warm, too:

1997   6   26.12    3.00

 

 These are weeklies

1983 much warmer

01JUN1983         4.4
 08JUN1983         4.0

1997 fairly comparable to current non-relative although this is warmer than current relative:

28MAY1997         2.6
04JUN1997         2.5
 11JUN1997         3.0

 
OISST 1+2 (non-relative) +2.6 (relative only in low +2s vs 4+ in ‘83):

I thought it was implicit in his tweet that he was speaking of daily anomalies in a very specific area and not region 1+2 overall. Nowhere in that tweet does he say region 1+2 overall

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Levy is saying record high anom for Paita on 6/3-4/26. He doesn’t say how far back records go. And we’re certainly nowhere near the record anom for 1+2 overall for early June of 1983:

 The following are 1+2 monthly anoms

1983   5   28.26    3.85

1983   6   27.36    4.24

 

 And 1997 was quite warm, too:

1997   6   26.12    3.00

 

 These are weeklies

1983 much warmer

01JUN1983         4.4
 08JUN1983         4.0

1997 fairly comparable to current non-relative although this is warmer than current relative:

28MAY1997         2.6
04JUN1997         2.5
 11JUN1997         3.0

 
OISST 1+2 (non-relative) +2.6 (relative only in low +2s vs 4+ in ‘83):

Gimme' 82/83 please! Surprise 7" in December then the Megalopolis storm in February. My brother and I had to push my late uncle's van during the Noon hour when BWI recorded 4" in that hour. Thunder and lightning all day was just surreal. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I thought it was implicit in his tweet that he was speaking of daily anomalies in a very specific area and not region 1+2 overall. Nowhere in that tweet does he say region 1+2

I think he was just pointing out that the entire 1+2 was cooler than 82/83.

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I thought it was implicit in his tweet that he was speaking of daily anomalies in a very specific area and not region 1+2 overall

 He was but my point is that Paita is just a very specific small area in the far edge of 1+2. It’s 1+2 that we follow because it matters significantly as far as Nino effects on the globe are concerned. And the current 1+2 is nowhere near record highs. I’m adding important context related to this tweet you posted. Without what I added, one could be fooled into thinking that 1+2 is at all-time highs, which is nowhere near true.

[GaWx]

 More on 97. Here were the monthlies:

                     1+2       3          4  

    3.4
1997   6   26.12    3.00   28.13    1.51   29.23    0.26   28.82    1.09
1997   7   25.59    3.63   27.90    2.09   29.37    0.47   28.86    1.56
1997   8   24.96    3.96   27.71    2.59   29.29    0.50   28.75    1.89
1997   9   24.69    3.96   27.74    2.84   29.44    0.68   28.85    2.13
1997  10   24.69    3.67   28.06    3.08   29.34    0.58   29.08    2.36
1997  11   26.12    4.47   28.37    3.27   29.39    0.69   29.12    2.41
1997  12   27.06    4.25   28.53    3.30   29.11    0.57   28.89    2.29
1998   1   28.12    3.55   28.74    3.08   28.95    0.64   28.93    2.38
1998   2   28.74    2.64   28.90    2.49   28.79    0.59   28.78    2.03

 1+2 (peak 4.47) and 3 (peak 3.3) were way, way stronger than 4, which remained just wk (peak 0.69) and even way stronger than 3.4 (peak 2.41)!

 The forecast for ‘26 is much stronger in 3.4/4 and stronger in 3, but not as strong in 1+2:

Per latest Euro, here are peak non-rel. monthlies:

1+2: 3.9

3:    3.9

3.4: 3.7

4:    2.4

 That’s only a contrast of 1.5 from E to W compared to 3.8 in ‘97! And contrast from 1+2 to 3.4 is a mere 0.2 vs 2.1 in ‘97!! So, the prog is for ‘26 to be E based but way more balanced and thus not nearly as E based as the extremely E based ‘97.

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 More on 97. Here were the monthlies:
                     1+2       3          4  
    3.4
1997   6   26.12    3.00   28.13    1.51   29.23    0.26   28.82    1.09
1997   7   25.59    3.63   27.90    2.09   29.37    0.47   28.86    1.56
1997   8   24.96    3.96   27.71    2.59   29.29    0.50   28.75    1.89
1997   9   24.69    3.96   27.74    2.84   29.44    0.68   28.85    2.13
1997  10   24.69    3.67   28.06    3.08   29.34    0.58   29.08    2.36
1997  11   26.12    4.47   28.37    3.27   29.39    0.69   29.12    2.41
1997  12   27.06    4.25   28.53    3.30   29.11    0.57   28.89    2.29
1998   1   28.12    3.55   28.74    3.08   28.95    0.64   28.93    2.38
1998   2   28.74    2.64   28.90    2.49   28.79    0.59   28.78    2.03
 1+2 (peak 4.47) and 3 (peak 3.3) were way, way stronger than 4, which remained just wk (peak 0.69) and even way stronger than 3.4 (peak 2.41)!
 The forecast for ‘26 is much stronger in 3.4/4 and stronger in 3, but not as strong in 1+2:
Per latest Euro, here are peak non-rel. monthlies:
1+2: 3.9
3:    3.9
3.4: 3.7
4:    2.4
 That’s only a contrast of 1.5 from E to W compared to 3.8 in ‘97! And contrast from 1+2 to 3.4 is a mere 0.2 vs 2.1 in ‘97!! So, the prog is for ‘26 to be E based but way more balanced and thus not nearly as E based as the extremely E based ‘97.

I agree that it’s obviously not as strong in 1+2 as 1997 or 1982 thus far. The final result still to be determined, but this event is developing unlike anything we’ve seen since 1997. It is still decidedly east-based

From @csnavywx

“We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect.

I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”

[GaWx]

 The strong 3.4 OISST warming hasn’t stopped as it warmed 0.12 on 6/5, which means a whopping 0.5C warming 5/31-6/5! Mon’s weekly should be ~0.3 warmer (~0.8). 6/5 RONI equivalent is ~+1.0: