SnoSki14 Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 52 minutes ago, GaWx said: “Very very massive yikes” Oh no! What are we going to do? Will we survive? Webb is so over the top. Yikes about what? The comparison doesn't make sense because waters are so much warmer overall now vs 97. You have to consider the anomalies compared to currents sst norms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 21 minutes ago, GaWx said: The SOI has dropped back down to -11. It may drop further temporarily. However, the models are not suggesting a further sustained drop to the 3 day long -30ish level of April 9-11 in the immediate future. So far, the SOI hasn’t been overly impressive negative for an oncoming very strong Nino vs history. Yet the very strong WWBs, DWKW’s, TC’s and very impressive, rapid subsurface and surface (especially in region 1+2) warming continues unabated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 3 hours ago, GaWx said: “Very very massive yikes” Oh no! What are we going to do? Will we survive? Webb is so over the top. Yikes about what? He's a click whore that blocks everyone that brings up a different viewpoint. He can be good when he wants, but very dramatic and always looking for clicks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 24 Author Share Posted April 24 An example of analogs working: March +NAO was top 2/900. When rolled forward to May, it is surprisingly cool, and this is the idea being adopted by CPC going forward Pre El Nino May: Nice combo of the two: warm in PNW. Cool elsewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: An example of analogs working: March +NAO was top 2/900. When rolled forward to May, it is surprisingly cool, and this is the idea being adopted by CPC going forward Pre El Nino May: Nice combo of the two: warm in PNW. Cool elsewhere. This looks like another Rossby Wave west of the IDL,while some RMMS are hinting the MJO could possibly go back into the WP,the MJO signal seemingly is getting destructive interference from this and is into the WH.I see the CFS is already showing another strong WWB but be carefulll looking at this or any models,that WWB last time wasnt as strong east of the IDL and was more or less picked up at times by the Rossby Wave train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 This should even kick off phoons once again,even tho this is 360 hrs out by the GFS from Rossby and plus Kelvin waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 U all ready 2 torch? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 25 Author Share Posted April 25 34 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: U all ready 2 torch? You keep saying the same thing over and over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You keep saying the same thing over and over So that's a no? Better get your mind right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: So that's a no? Better get your mind right Not sold on a super el nino and especially not on a torch. I do think it will be milder here than the last 2 cold winters, however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 The models are starting to go bonkers with multiple TC’s developing in the PAC over the next week….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 25 Author Share Posted April 25 +3c subsurface now stretches all the way from 160E to 90W 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 25 Author Share Posted April 25 9 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: So that's a no? Better get your mind right Worse yet -- you don't read the thread. You are just copy and pasting what you said B4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 On 4/24/2026 at 8:32 AM, GaWx said: Even if the KW were to verify as strongest in history (however long the recorded history of KWs is), why the “Very very massive yikes”? That wording implies to me that that’s worrisome. Why would that be something to get worried about? Are we in trouble? To me this is just more of his being over the top and not professional. Agree. The facts are fairly straightforward. An El Niño is developing, and it is developing similarly to previous strong and super ninos. If it does become a super Nino it won’t be the first one, and certainly won’t be the last. Personally I don’t think it’s a huge deal, I mean im not too happy about it because it’s an unfavorable ENSO state for cold and snow for my area, but it’s not like the El Niño itself is an actual threat to our lives or anything. 2015-2016 happened, life went on. Same thing will happen with this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Thanks for posting. I like how Leon Simons’ tweet shows the stats and how strong the latest CFSv2 has RONI peaking. But I don’t like that he used the word “dystopian” and said “No one is prepared.” What do you and others think? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: Thanks for posting. I like how Leon Simons’ tweet shows the stats and how strong the latest CFSv2 has RONI peaking. But I don’t like that he used the word “dystopian” and said “No one is prepared.” What do you and others think? Well we survived the 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 super Ninos. I think we’ll make it through this one too…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That second post is entirely generated by AI. Cool to know that you’re fine with posting slop so long as it hits all of the Paul Roundy super El Niño talking points. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Dear stupid cow, That’s actually what the new RONI forecast shows, which is not generated by AI you vapid little airhead The raw RONI and Cfs forecasts are usually way more extreme than the bias corrected, which often more accurate at this range. Bias corrected RONI still <2. I've never seen any of these posters mention the bias corrected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The raw RONI and Cfs forecasts are usually way more extreme than the bias corrected, which often more accurate at this range. Bias corrected RONI still <2. I've never seen any of these posters mention the bias corrected. I wonder what type of tweets the bias corrected Snowman19 would post. They would probably be more moderate to strong El Niño tweets instead of super. Its too bad we don’t have access to that. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Phase 1 peaked way up at ~2.73 amplitude this month. Only 2018 (also ~2.73) and 2009 (~2.75) had a higher phase 1 peak in April going back to 1975. Both were pre-Nino years like 2026. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 1 hour ago, roardog said: I wonder what type of tweets the bias corrected Snowman19 would post. They would probably be more moderate to strong El Niño tweets instead of super. Its too bad we don’t have access to that. Im taking a stab in the dark, but i think snowman is going with a super nino. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 26 Author Share Posted April 26 2 days of strong -SOI, moving the 30-day average to the lowest since 23-24 El Nino 26 Apr 2026 1010.40 1011.90 -28.05 -9.61 3.89 25 Apr 2026 1010.94 1012.50 -28.48 -9.08 4.09 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 OHC and buoys both show sharp warming since early April: OHC: only ~+1.6 early April OHC: ~+2.0 to +2.1 mid April! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulm Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 1 hour ago, GaWx said: OHC and buoys both show sharp warming since early April: OHC: only ~+1.6 early April OHC: ~+2.0 to +2.1 mid April! Tracking 1997 closely in the upper ocean. Currently well above recent non-super El Nino years. Chart from James Hansen as of March. https://mailchi.mp/caa/super-duper-el-nino 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 27 Author Share Posted April 27 Does anyone trade weather derivatives or is familiar with it? It's kind of frustrating that this May pattern was predictable far in advance -- March was 2nd most +NAO on all of records, going back to 1950. The +2 month, following May's had a strong below average temp signal: So here we are in May, and it's verifying Sometimes in weather forecasting there are these strong leads -- and I would like to be able to use knowledge to increase capital. PNW warmth was very predictable from pre-El Nino year May's, a composite that has been working out every month since November 2025: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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