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paulm

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Everything posted by paulm

  1. paulm
    Tracking 1997 closely in the upper ocean. Currently well above recent non-super El Nino years. Chart from James Hansen as of March. https://mailchi.mp/caa/super-duper-el-nino
  2. paulm
    Wanted to see if 91-92 also had the same twin tropical cyclones as 82/97/15 in the spring preceding the El Nino event, since 91-92 is now a super Nino in RONI. Turns out, yes, 91-92 did also have twin tropical cyclones in early May 1991. So that remains an incredibly bullish signal for this upcoming Nino being one of the strongest on record.
  3. paulm
    Might have been a data artifact - am now seeing populated data for this chart:
  4. paulm
    The day 3 SPC hatched risk over PIT from this afternoon's outlook is the first time a day 3 hatched risk has been over Pittsburgh since 2002. The 1 instance in the 20z outlook is from this afternoon.
  5. paulm
    Yep - that graphic does nothing to address what the cause of the longer term warming trend is.
  6. paulm
    Amazing that the "no warming since 1998" claim has been set aside with no acknowledgement why from those who were pushing it to begin with. Tells you there are bad faith factors involved in this discourse. There was already goalpost moving to "no warming since 2016" but 2023/2024 have ensured that 2016 will no longer be used as a starting year to cherry pick going forward either.
  7. paulm
    There are plenty of poor outcomes between now & extinction. Such as a massive immigration crisis due to hundreds of millions of people whom will need to leave countries that will soon become too hot to sustain human life. At 3C above preindustrial, nearly 2 billion people will see conditions too hot to sustain human life for a week, in an average year. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2305427120
  8. paulm
    Paper published last summer argued that the net effect of that eruption was to cool the globe slightly overall, and that the impact from the volcano is now negligible. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD041296
  9. paulm
    Thanks - Copernicus now has daily data for ERA5 through the 22nd available to download, so a few extra days left to go due to data postprocessing, but a record now looks likely, as you've said. Remarkable to see us edge 2024 given the ENSO flip.
  10. paulm
    Impressive to see 2025 even competitive with 2024, let alone running slightly above 2024 for most of January. Will be a close call for whether we finish as the warmest January on record in ERA5 or not.
  11. paulm
    Happy New Year all. Just a couple of days ago, the GEFS had no storm signal. Now, the signal is the strongest it has been with the most recent 6z GEFS run.
  12. paulm
    EPS is significantly less amplified than the Euro, so the operational is likely too aggressive for the 1/2 storm system.
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