2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[so_whats_happening]

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why I feel we want a high RONI during an El Nino event....the RONI represents a spectrum, or continuum if you will, of the ability of warm ENSO to modulate the north Pacific versus the baseline trend that is more reflective of CC, which is cool ENSO like. I think folks obfuscate this with the MEI, which simply measures the intensity of the warm ENSO coupling. RONI is not so much about the intensity of the coupling, but the war waged between ENSO and competing hemispheric forces.

I think that it could also go beyond the RONI in that the 500 mb ridges are expanding in the mid-latitudes outside the tropical oceans which RONI measures.

The 500 mb ridge across the North Pacific from east of Japan to south of the Aleutians has been unprecedented during the 2020s. Also note the slightly weaker mirroring of the pattern in the South Pacific to the east of New Zealand. 

So it’s been warming the SSTs underneath the ridge causing the -PDO to remain negative. In the old days ,the -PDO was more a function of colder SSTs off of California rather than the extensive warm pool from east of Japan to south of the Aleutians that we have today.
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think that it could also go beyond the RONI in that the 500 mb ridges are expanding in the mid-latitudes outside the tropical oceans which RONI measures.

The 500 mb ridge across the North Pacific from east of Japan to south of the Aleutians has been unprecedented during the 2020s. Also note the slightly weaker mirroring of the pattern in the South Pacific to the east of New Zealand. 

So it’s been warming the SSTs underneath the ridge causing the -PDO to remain negative. In the old days ,the -PDO was more a function of colder SSTs off of California rather than the extensive warm pool from east of Japan to south of the Aleutians that we have today.
 

 

Well, it's all connected...sure, the RONI only measures the oceans, but I think the warming oceans are somewhat connected to the more pronounced 500MB ridges....I think there is an element of feedback at play. Bottom line is there is more heat, which is being reflected in the ocean and the atmosphere, but it just so happens that the RONI only measures the former...so technically, yes...it certainly goes beyond the RONI.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 If we have (finally) turned the corner in the Atlantic to a solid -AMO cycle, what implications does that have on the NAO? 

I think it would favor more -NAO events going forward (decadally). 

Be careful that you are calling the -AMO right now is not from a lot of +NAO/+AO, especially in the warm season. Immediate term the central-south Atlantic has -0.3 to -0.4 SSTA correlation with +NAO conditions. I know, correlated immediately, inverse in the long term. 

[snowman19]

@LakePaste25

This is what you were talking about the other day with true, classic low frequency El Niño forcing (standing wave) setting up and sinking/subsidence over the IO and Indonesia for a change….
 

 

 

 

 

 

Very strong ocean-atmosphere coupling developing…+AAM, -SOI, decrease in OLR (convection) in the central and eastern equatorial PAC, WWBs/westerlies, major weakening of trade winds over the equatorial PAC

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm wondering if TAO/Triton will pop a +8c in the subsurface in the next few days, as it continues to warm. It's really taking on a Strong east-based dominance. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

New York Post posted an article about Mt. Rainier possibly erupting: https://nypost.com/2026/05/29/science/most-dangerous-us-volcano-mt-rainier-could-devastate-60000-residents/

This is probably the only thing that can prevent another temperature jump from this upcoming el nino.

Remember that Pinatubo erupted in mid-June 1991, ahead of a robust el nino.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Last year March - October was all +AO monthly, 8/8 months. It looks like this March - June will be starting off +AO, 4/4 months. 

Edit: It looks like a east-based Nino/-PDO Winter composite, when rolled forward. I always like 2nd points to the same probability. 

[SnoSki14]

Man the northeast is so cooked next winter. 

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Man the northeast is so cooked next winter. 

We are only in May LOL. Come back in October or even November to talk about the winter. 

[WX-PA]

10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Man the northeast is so cooked next winter. 

72-73,82-83,97-98,15-16..super nino..cooked yea it's gonna be warm but 2 out of the 4 years had historic blizzards

 

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

We are only in May LOL. Come back in October or even November to talk about the winter. 

East based Super Nino + Negative PDO means the anomalies out west last winter will be over us this winter. 

It wouldn't surprise me if we experienced the warmest winter on record and by a lot too

[snowman19]

I think the June model updates are going to show some crazy solutions, very likely showing this El Niño easily surpassing all the events since 1950 in both RONI and ONI….
 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

4/13/26 CFS RONI peak +2 (OND):

5/30/26 CFS RONI peak just under +3! Record peak is +2.5:

5/30 CFS DJF +2.22. That wouldn’t be record for DJF as ‘83 +2.5 and ‘92 +2.3. So, it’s actually showing a record rapid cooldown OND to DJF of 0.75 vs current record of 0.62 (2002-3).

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

4/13/26 CFS RONI peak +2 (OND):

5/30/26 CFS RONI peak just under +3! Record peak is +2.5:

5/30 CFS DJF +2.22. That wouldn’t be record for DJF as ‘83 +2.5 and ‘92 +2.3.

And this is before the new WWB (which has just begun), ERW and subsequent DWKW has a chance to do their dirty work with strengthening this event further

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

East based Super Nino + Negative PDO means the anomalies out west last winter will be over us this winter. 

It wouldn't surprise me if we experienced the warmest winter on record and by a lot too

What about a one-month relaxation like 1994-95 (which was a -PDO el nino)? November 1994-January 1995 were really warm and snowless, but there was a cold and snowy window in February 1995, before the warm and snowless weather returned in March. 94-95 ended up very warm and below average snowfall, but at least we got a respectable winter month out of it.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

What about a one-month relaxation like 1994-95 (which was a -PDO el nino)? November 1994-January 1995 were really warm and snowless, but there was a cold and snowy window in February 1995, before the warm and snowless weather returned in March. 94-95 ended up very warm and below average snowfall, but at least we got a respectable winter month out of it.

Not sure about the NE but here my early gut call is of the 3 DJF months to expect one good winter month, one terrible (ie warm, little snow) winter month and the third is a wild card. I also expect early and late season snow.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

East based Super Nino + Negative PDO means the anomalies out west last winter will be over us this winter. 

It wouldn't surprise me if we experienced the warmest winter on record and by a lot too

What are the numbers for the winning lotto tickets ?

[LakePaste25]

Super Ninos aren’t always record warm for the NE unless you get that competing Nina forcing from the W pac warm pool. The typical way to get record warm temps here is via the SE ridge which ushers in subtropical air from the Gulf. Ninos don’t have this and instead typically usher in a pacific jet extension which floods the lower 48 with mild pacific air, and you have a raging southern stream bringing cool and stormy weather in the south.  This pattern is usually record warm for the northern plains and Canada, but not the NE. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

And this is before the new WWB (which has just begun), ERW and subsequent DWKW has a chance to do their dirty work with strengthening this event further

 Today’s CFS has a record high RONI starting in JAS and going through NDJ before dropping at a record quick pace to only 3rd highest in DJF. I’m talking about records for each respective 3 month period, not overall.

 On monthly basis, it has records Jul-Dec! But then Jan falls so fast that it is then 0.5 cooler than ‘83 and is only 6th warmest behind ‘83, ‘92, ‘98, ‘58, and ,’16. Feb also is 6th warmest with it a whopping 0.63 cooler than ‘92! 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s CFS has a record high RONI starting in JAS and going through NDJ before dropping at a record quick pace to only 3rd highest in DJF. I’m talking about records for each respective 3 month period, not overall.

 On monthly basis, it has records Jul-Dec! But then Jan falls so fast that it is then 0.5 cooler than ‘83 and is only 6th warmest behind ‘83, ‘92, ‘98, ‘58, and ,’16. Feb also is 6th warmest with it a whopping 0.63 cooler than ‘92! 

Cfs will change only a thousand more times before November. 

[MarcmmKU]

16 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Man the northeast is so cooked next winter. 

Not necessarily. I think 1997-1998 was ok for the interior. I think it's unlikely though that both the interior and coast get close to normal snowfall. At least one will probably be far below normal. The coast cause they missed out on a KU, or the interior cause it truly was an epic torch.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Legit Strong Nino going

 

30 May 2026	1012.24	1014.15	-26.33	-13.17	-5.29
29 May 2026	1011.31	1014.15	-33.46	-12.63	-4.77
28 May 2026	1012.81	1014.30	-23.11

 

Again, lowest 2-month SOI likely in 10 years. March's +7 really came back around. It had never been above +2.3 in March in a developing Strong+ Nino before, guess it didn't matter too much, except showing general SOI tendency to not really take off like SSTA, that has been present in the 2020s. 

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Legit Strong Nino going

 

30 May 2026	1012.24	1014.15	-26.33	-13.17	-5.29
29 May 2026	1011.31	1014.15	-33.46	-12.63	-4.77
28 May 2026	1012.81	1014.30	-23.11

 

Again, lowest 2-month SOI likely in 10 years. March's +7 really came back around. It had never been above +2.3 in March in a developing Strong+ Nino before, guess it didn't matter too much, except showing general SOI tendency to not really take off like SSTA, that has been present in the 2020s. 

 Based on the past after strong -SOI periods, 3.4 SSTs tend to start warming ~10-24 days after the start of these periods. The last 20 days have averaged way down at -18 (and it hasn’t yet shown it is ending soon). Thus I’m expecting 3.4 to resume good warming at almost anytime after the last 2 weeks of little change. Plus the models have strong warming resuming in June. Thus I expect 3.4 to be several 10ths warmer by a week from now.

[snowman19]

The Peruvian government is confirming SST anomalies of over +5C off their coast (ENSO region 1+2)

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Peruvian government is confirming SST anomalies of over +5C off their coast (ENSO region 1+2)
 

Latest OISST 1+2 anomaly is +2.5C (non-relative). That tells me that relative 1+2 is at a pretty hefty ~+2.0:

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Super Ninos aren’t always record warm for the NE unless you get that competing Nina forcing from the W pac warm pool. The typical way to get record warm temps here is via the SE ridge which ushers in subtropical air from the Gulf. Ninos don’t have this and instead typically usher in a pacific jet extension which floods the lower 48 with mild pacific air, and you have a raging southern stream bringing cool and stormy weather in the south.  This pattern is usually record warm for the northern plains and Canada, but not the NE. 

The Nina-like WPAC warm pool forcing in DJF 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 did enhance the warmth in the Northeast those winters above the typical super El Niño winters like 1997-1998 and 1982-1983.

While the PDO was positive in 2015-2016, we got the record MJO 5 in December adding to the historic +13 warmth. 2023-2024 had both a -PDO and strong MJO 4-7 activity. So both winters featured record Niña-like MJO activity for super El Niños.

But even without the Niña influence in 1997-1998, that winter was still very warm. Plus the winters have warmed since 1997-1998. So perhaps that winter would be just as warm today as 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 was even without the La Niña influence. Since the stronger Southeast trough in 1997-1998 was all Pacific air with the record east based super El Niño. 

Top 15 warmest winters in NYC

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
	2015-2016	41.0	Super El Niño Nina Influence
3	2023-2024	40.6	Super El Niño Nina influence
4	2011-2012	40.5	0
5	1931-1932	40.1	0
6	1997-1998	39.6	Super El Niño No Niña influence
7	2016-2017	39.3	0
8	2019-2020	39.2	0
9	1990-1991	39.1	0
10	1998-1999	38.6	0
11	1948-1949	38.5	0
12	1889-1890	38.4	0
13	1952-1953	38.1	0
14	1982-1983	37.9	Super El Niño No Niña influence
-	1936-1937	37.9	0
15	1996-1997	37.8	0
-	1932-1933	37.8	0

 

 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Nina-like WPAC warm pool forcing in DJF 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 did enhance the warmth in the Northeast those winters above the typical super El Niño winters like 1997-1998 and 1982-1983.

While the PDO was positive in 2015-2016, we got the record MJO 5 in December adding to the historic +13 warmth. 2023-2024 had both a -PDO and strong MJO 4-7 activity. So both winters featured record Niña-like MJO activity for super El Niños.

But even without the Niña influence in 1997-1998, that winter was still very warm. Plus the winters have warmed since 1997-1998. So perhaps that winter would be just as warm today as 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 was even without the La Niña influence. Since the stronger Southeast trough in 1997-1998 was all Pacific air with the record east based super El Niño. 

Top 15 warmest winters in NYC

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
	2015-2016	41.0	Super El Niño Nina Influence
3	2023-2024	40.6	Super El Niño Nina influence
4	2011-2012	40.5	0
5	1931-1932	40.1	0
6	1997-1998	39.6	Super El Niño No Niña influence
7	2016-2017	39.3	0
8	2019-2020	39.2	0
9	1990-1991	39.1	0
10	1998-1999	38.6	0
11	1948-1949	38.5	0
12	1889-1890	38.4	0
13	1952-1953	38.1	0
14	1982-1983	37.9	Super El Niño No Niña influence
-	1936-1937	37.9	0
15	1996-1997	37.8	0
-	1932-1933	37.8	0

 

 

83% of the warmest temperature winters (40+ degrees) occurred in the last 26 years. What saddens me is if I make it to my hoped for 104th birthday in 2051, the entire list may consist of 21st century years. As always …..

[WX-PA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Nina-like WPAC warm pool forcing in DJF 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 did enhance the warmth in the Northeast those winters above the typical super El Niño winters like 1997-1998 and 1982-1983.

While the PDO was positive in 2015-2016, we got the record MJO 5 in December adding to the historic +13 warmth. 2023-2024 had both a -PDO and strong MJO 4-7 activity. So both winters featured record Niña-like MJO activity for super El Niños.

But even without the Niña influence in 1997-1998, that winter was still very warm. Plus the winters have warmed since 1997-1998. So perhaps that winter would be just as warm today as 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 was even without the La Niña influence. Since the stronger Southeast trough in 1997-1998 was all Pacific air with the record east based super El Niño. 

Top 15 warmest winters in NYC

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
	2015-2016	41.0	Super El Niño Nina Influence
3	2023-2024	40.6	Super El Niño Nina influence
4	2011-2012	40.5	0
5	1931-1932	40.1	0
6	1997-1998	39.6	Super El Niño No Niña influence
7	2016-2017	39.3	0
8	2019-2020	39.2	0
9	1990-1991	39.1	0
10	1998-1999	38.6	0
11	1948-1949	38.5	0
12	1889-1890	38.4	0
13	1952-1953	38.1	0
14	1982-1983	37.9	Super El Niño No Niña influence
-	1936-1937	37.9	0
15	1996-1997	37.8	0
-	1932-1933	37.8	0

 

 

97-98 the coast got shut out but inland didn't do that bad..we had a dusting of snow a few days after Christmas..it was warm like all Super Nino's are. 82-83 had a snow event in middle of December..65 degrees Chistmas day and a blizzard in February..15-6 had a blowtorch December..70 degrees Christmas day and a historic blizzard 4 weeks later..So yes it will be warm but there will be winter weather.

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

97-98 the coast got shut out but inland didn't do that bad..we had a dusting of snow a few days after Christmas..it was warm like all Super Nino's are. 82-83 had a snow event in middle of December..65 degrees Chistmas day and a blizzard in February..15-6 had a blowtorch December..70 degrees Christmas day and a historic blizzard 4 weeks later..So yes it will be warm but there will be winter weather.

 I’ve noticed that there’s a significant number especially in the northern U.S. here and at other wx bbs who like cold only for snow chances and otherwise prefer mild in winter. They hate cold and dry, complain about it being “useless cold”, and prefer mild if it’s not going to snow. The good news with very strong El Niño winters is that there’s typically not as much cold, dry wx as in other winters. There will generally be a few significant to possibly major snowstorms but otherwise lots of mild for those folks to enjoy.

 I always prefer cold but I’m deep in the SE US and thus cold here isn’t typically that cold up north. If I were living up north, I’d probably have a different take on my desire for cold and would enjoy mild periods much more as mild up there is not nearly as warm as down here and too much and too severe cold would get tiring fast.