2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[snowman19]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't recall 23-24 expected to be that warm. Seasonal models, especially the Euro, constantly had a trough over the Mid Atlantic in the mean, below average heights. -QBO was expected to dip the AO negative. We did end up having 4 Strat warmings that Winter, but +NAO won out. The -PDO/east-based Nino composite worked out perfectly, a warmer version of 72-73, but many people realized that only after the fact. It led to a lot of PDO reliance in 24-25 and 25-26, which then busted people too warm lol. 

Plus, a similar strength el nino in 09-10, which produced a very cold (and in the mid-Atlantic, very snowy winter) happened in between.

In hindsight, though, we probably should have seen that 25-26 was going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East, and warm in the West. 25-26 was the 2nd year without a defined ENSO state. In recent times, 2nd years without a defined ENSO state (93-94 and 13-14) were cold and snowy in the East, and warm in the West.

[LakePaste25]

Getting (cautiously) more bullish that we see a classic Nino response and the W pac warm pool will not be as influential. The suppressed  convection in the W pac, believe it or not, is actually being under modeled now.

[snowman19]

[FPizz]

Should Snowman change his name to Ben Noll?  Its pretty much his feed non-stop in here.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, I stand corrected. Colder than I recalled.

That cansips was from Sept though...pretty far out. 

[forkyfork]

42 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Should Snowman change his name to Ben Noll?  Its pretty much his feed non-stop in here.

should he hold your hand and tell you it's going to be a modoki? 

[brooklynwx99]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, I stand corrected. Colder than I recalled.

there was also a major block that was poorly forecasted in February... one of the worst pattern busts I've ever seen. if that occurred, things would have turned out a whole lot differently that month

[roardog]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

These guys are talking about atmospheric responses like WWB,MJO,SOI, etc. I don’t think anyone here disagrees with any of this. Posters like Bluewave and Chuck are talking about the pattern over the North Pacific and or North America not being completely Nino like. I’m still not even sure why we should even be expecting a strong Nino response right now since the RONI is at like +.5

[PhiEaglesfan712]

32 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

should he hold your hand and tell you it's going to be a modoki? 

If you told me this upcoming el nino is going to be a modoki, I'll gladly take my chances with it. 

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If you told me this upcoming el nino is going to be a modoki, I'll gladly take my chances with it. 

1997. deal with it

[George001]

11 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If you told me this upcoming el nino is going to be a modoki, I'll gladly take my chances with it. 

It’s unlikely it will be a modoki given the warmth already present in Nino 1.2 and the current subsurface structure (hence Andy Hazeltons comparison to 1997) + the historical precedence of super ninos to leak east. Nino 1.2 never really cooled off even during our past 2 la Nina’s. Its not impossible it becomes a modoki, but given where we are currently at east based should be the favored outcome, or at least a super Nino with an eastern tilt. 

[rclab]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s unlikely it will be a modoki given the warmth already present in Nino 1.2 (hence Andy Hazeltons comparison to 1997) + the historical precedence of super ninos to leak east. Nino 1.2 never really cooled off even during our past 2 la Nina’s. Its not impossible it becomes a modoki, but given where we are currently at east based should be the favored outcome, or at least a super Nino with an eastern tilt. 

 It sad, getting old! All the fine posts by well versed members/meteorologists and the only thing I remember is “copulating anus”. As always ….

[Stormchaserchuck1]

In other news, we have a pretty good +AO setting up for the early Summer (May-June), for the 3rd consecutive year. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-23 Daily SOI today

If May ended now, it would be the 6th most negative SOI month since Apr 2016. 

Apr-May would be close to the 2nd lowest 2-month period since Apr 2016. 

Definitely an El Nino. I just don't know if it's going to go off the hinges in global pattern domination. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+7c has popped in the far east, highest of the event so far. Still warming.  Definitely taking on an east-based look

[LakePaste25]

22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-23 Daily SOI today

If May ended now, it would be the 6th most negative SOI month since Apr 2016. 

Apr-May would be close to the 2nd lowest 2-month period since Apr 2016. 

Definitely an El Nino. I just don't know if it's going to go off the hinges in global pattern domination. 

Curious to see the S hemisphere height anomalies for the ensembles. As they go into the cold season, are we seeing their counterpart to the deep Aleutian/GOA low? Asking because I don’t have access to good SH height anomaly ensemble maps. 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^That's a good point. Definitely watch the S. Hemisphere Winter to see if it's propagating to the mid latitude Cell. Pretty good correlation you found there, I like how it's a sea of yellow otherwise. 

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+7c has popped in the far east, highest of the event so far. Still warming.  Definitely taking on an east-based look

Agreed

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 Not surprisingly being that the crazy high 0Z 5/25/26 run was likely the strongest CFSv2 ensemble mean +AAM prog since at least 2023, it has come way down since. As I’ve said a number of times, it’s the CFSv2 long range and thus while worth following and posting, s/b taken with a huge grain.

0Z 5/25/26 run: mean peak ~+3.5 late June!

12Z 5/28/26 run: mean peak way down to only ~+1 in late June: like night and day!

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Not surprisingly being that the crazy high 0Z 5/25/26 run was likely the strongest CFSv2 ensemble mean +AAM prog since at least 2023, it has come way down since. As I’ve said a number of times, it’s the CFSv2 long range and thus while worth following and posting, s/b taken with a huge grain.

0Z 5/25/26 run: mean peak ~+3.5 late June!

12Z 5/28/26 run: mean peak way down to only ~+1 in late June: like night and day!

Either way the AAM is going positive

[Stormchaserchuck1]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agreed

 

 

 

Last image of that NASA SLH makes me wonder if we are setting up a big La nina roll back, with the way it's unfolding so east and that cold subsurface water popping north of New Guinea. I think the tendency is +ENSO for 2-3 years relative to swings and stuff so we'll see. 

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Either way the AAM is going positive

It’s already positive (~+1.7)as per the latest CFSv2 initialization posted above. That was well predicted on that insane 0Z 5/25 run as one can see.

[so_whats_happening]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In other news, we have a pretty good +AO setting up for the early Summer (May-June), for the 3rd consecutive year. 

It has been something I have been watching for a bit. We don't seem to have the preconditioning issues of April through early June we saw over last 15 or so years prior to the switch up. No miraculous comeback by any means but interesting to see the change up. Very similar to 2000-2009 timeframe for April to June.

[raindancewx]

May 2026 nationally looks a lot like May 1997, 1994, and 1940. Somewhat like 2006 and 2009.

Not really like 2015 or 2023 or 1982 or 1965 or 1972 or 1957 or 1991.

Actually pretty unusual for the NW/West to be the warmest area of the US with El Nino conditions.

 

Locally, April and May have so far trended similarly to average April-May highs following our hottest Marches ever. 

December and August both have 4-5 years in the 10 hottest March grouping that are at least two degrees colder than long-term average highs.

For August, only 17 years for 1931-2025 are 2F are more below the 95 year average. So it's 12/85 v 5/10 if you separate out the hottest March years.

If your hypothesis is "August following a top-ten warm March" has the same frequency of cold highs as any other March, a difference in proportions test would say you are wrong because the P value is ~0.004 - well under 0.05. 

Only 48/95 Augusts are colder than average for highs locally. But 7/10 are following a top 10 hot August.

41 / 85 v. 7/ 10 is not statistically significant. So if we have a cold August, its likely to be quite cold, but its not meaningfully more likely that we have a cold August locally.

2026	52.5	62.7	76.5	73.3	80.0	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	69.0
1972	51.2	58.7	71.1	75.2	81.2	90.3	93.1	86.4	80.6	68.3	50.9	47.3	71.2
1974	45.6	53.7	69.5	73.3	85.4	96.3	90.9	85.5	78.4	68.6	58.0	43.7	70.7
2017	48.9	58.4	69.4	70.5	78.4	93.2	92.1	88.0	83.6	72.1	65.4	53.1	72.8
1989	47.9	54.9	68.8	77.8	85.1	90.5	92.1	86.8	82.8	69.5	60.2	47.7	72.0
2011	48.1	50.5	67.4	72.6	77.9	93.6	94.5	93.8	82.9	71.4	57.2	42.8	71.1
1967	48.1	54.7	67.3	72.7	79.3	85.7	92.2	86.7	81.1	73.4	59.7	41.9	70.2
1934	51.0	58.5	67.0	72.7	83.3	88.9	94.8	90.6	80.9	75.3	57.8	49.0	72.5
1997	43.5	51.5	66.7	64.1	78.7	86.3	90.0	87.9	82.8	69.9	54.5	41.7	68.1
2015	47.9	57.3	66.3	70.1	74.0	90.8	88.4	91.5	86.2	72.0	56.9	46.9	70.7
2016	47.5	59.8	66.2	68.9	77.1	93.3	95.6	85.8	83.2	75.9	58.6	49.7	71.8

[GaWx]

Check out this 19 day sub -5 SOI streak along with today’s -33.46 being 2nd most negative (barely missing 1st) so far this year. Note that Darwin’s higher than avg SLP for May has the last 10 days finally joined Tahiti’s lows to contribute. Darwin SLPs look to remain on the high side at least over the next week or so per models:

2026 131 1012.47 1012.15   -9.25
2026 132 1011.99 1012.00  -11.78
2026 133 1010.40 1010.50  -12.47
2026 134 1009.81 1010.30  -15.45
2026 135 1009.15 1010.00  -18.21
2026 136 1008.21 1009.70  -23.11
2026 137 1007.49 1009.55  -27.48
2026 138 1009.98 1009.25   -6.11
2026 139 1011.63 1010.85   -5.73
2026 140 1012.01 1012.45  -15.07
2026 141 1010.85 1013.05  -28.55
2026 142 1012.15 1013.20  -19.74
2026 143 1011.70 1012.55  -18.21
2026 144 1010.19 1012.80  -31.69
2026 145 1011.06 1012.85  -25.41
2026 146 1013.30 1012.45   -5.19
2026 147 1013.80 1013.10   -6.34
2026 148 1012.81 1014.30  -23.11
2026 149 1011.31 1014.15  -33.46

[bluewave]

Starting to see the seasonal -PDO drop heading into summer which has been common during the the 2020s.

 

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Starting to see the seasonal -PDO drop heading into summer which has been common during the 2020s.

 

Also, keep in mind that a -1.40 WCS daily PDO is generally equivalent to a sub-2 NOAA daily PDO. This differential has been the case since I started following WCS daily PDOs years ago.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Also, keep in mind that a -1.40 WCS daily PDO is generally equivalent to a sub-2 NOAA daily PDO. This differential has been the case since I started following WCS daily PDOs years ago.

My guess is that the recent drop was enhanced by the +EPO -PNA pattern in May.

 

 

[BlizzardWx]

My calculation has -1.18 for the PDO, so at least relatively in line with WCS. It's definitely been dropping the last few weeks. But the AMO is looking solidly negative now, so that is new compared to recent history.