2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 30 hPa QBO per ATMO Hub dropped from +17.6 in Sept to +14.0 in Oct. But I advise weenies to not take that small drop and interpret that to mean that a -QBO is going to arrive by Feb (though I expect some x weenies to do just that….be prepared ). All it is doing is oscillating within the solidly positive region (the image below shows this well).

 Related to that, 20 hPa and 15 hPa are still maintaining their strong status with +17.5 to +17.6. Also, the level that Paul Roundy referred to a few days ago, 70 hPa, as expected rose sharply from +2.6 to +7.0. 
 
 The last 29 +cycles at 30 hPa have lasted 10 months++ and have averaged ~13 months going back to 1960. The current one started in May. Feb ‘27 would be the 10th month and May ‘27 the 13th month.

 Thus, I maintain my prediction that there will be a +QBO at 30 hPa through at least Feb with Feb likely lower than the current +14 but likely still at +5+ and possibly as high as ~+10. My best guess as to when it goes to a -QBO is still around May. Thus, 2015-6, 1982-3, and 1957-8 remain the top +QBO/strong+ Nino analogs ignoring where it will be based (east). If the E basedness is then incorporated, 1982-3 easily becomes the best overall analog.

 This image (just updated for Oct) better illustrates the current QBO status at all levels. As one can clearly see, we’re in the heart of a solid +QBO at 30 hPa that won’t end per history til at the very least 3 months after we see it first dropping to <0 at 10 hPa. The avg lag of going to -QBO from the 10 hPa level to the 30 hPa level is actually 7 months:

@snowman19

 

This never had a prayer of being easterly.

[roardog]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Seems like we all agree it will be warm....just a matter of whether there will be a decent window or two.

Basically anyone who doesn’t think the earth is going to uninhabitable in 5 years is labeled a denier here.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

9 minutes ago, roardog said:

Basically anyone who doesn’t think the earth is going to uninhabitable in 5 years is labeled a denier here.

AI might end us first, lol.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, roardog said:

Basically anyone who doesn’t think the earth is going to uninhabitable in 5 years is labeled a denier here.

ET coming ?

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This never had a prayer of being easterly.

 Based on the combo of an E based super Nino with +QBO, 1982-3 is the single best analog for DJFM. Although it was AN in the megapolis, this was no torch there with it only ~2F AN. The true torch was much further W centered on the upper MW. The S US was NN (1877-8 among others was similar):

 

Precip: sharp deliniation between very wet SE/AN NE coast to BN to the NW and AN beyond that:

[roardog]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

AI might end us first, lol.

As long AI stops our planet from warming then it’s ok if it kills us all. That’s how some people think. lol

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

denier board

frontranger left the board for 9 years after the 2016 sea ice extent came in second worst

[michsnowfreak]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Seems like we all agree it will be warm....just a matter of whether there will be a decent window or two.

Even "window" is a highly subjective term imo. If your talking simple snow chances, then theres lots of windows for the Lakes and New England. If your talking a period of sustained winter for a few weeks at a time, id say a few windows. 

[michsnowfreak]

33 minutes ago, roardog said:

Basically anyone who doesn’t think the earth is going to uninhabitable in 5 years is labeled a denier here.

Post of the year 

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I see this place has gone back to its usual cesspool of arguing whether it’ll be warm or cold rather than talking about ENSO and teleconnections. sad. 

the hive has been wrong about this event since april and they're still here shamelessly posting away

[csnavywx]

One way train the entire year. 

[csnavywx]

Not even close.

Just asking to get your face ripped off trying to short sell that.

[Ephesians2]

3 hours ago, frontranger8 said:

Here's February over the last dozen years. Keep in mind the baseline goes back 35 years.

 

Seattle's snowfall in February the past 10 years has been more than double their long term mean. This includes their snowiest February on record (2019) and their third snowiest (2021).

https://wrcc-archive.dri.edu/WRCCWrappers.py?sodxtrmts+457473+por+por+snow+none+msum+5+07+F

La Nina base state seems to account for most (not all) of the warmth in the east

[EasternLI]

Usually feel like 50mb is a pretty good proxy for where the cold is. We don't have any on this side of the planet. Whatever that event is in the stratosphere. It's booting it all to the other side of the planet. Ultimately, it's dumping into the Pacific. Increase that gradient? Just going to turbocharge the Pacific jet by doing that... Thinking torched thoughts...

 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, frontranger8 said:

Short term trends and limited sample sizes are a thing.

Non-linear climate shifts don’t care about small sample sizes.

Non-linear climate dynamics combined with small sample sizes create severe statistical and predictive challenges because the Earth's system can cross critical thresholds or experience abrupt state shifts that short or sparse historical records fail to capture. [1, 2, 3]