2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Cobalt]

 

Their methodology has a pretty good track record. This does not seem too far fetched

[WinterWolf]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D winter outlook

 

https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2026/10/30/winter-forecast-2026-27/

I like his “high potential” of what can go wrong on the cold side ….that’d be pretty cool. 

[GaWx]

Recent 10 day mean CFS runs have warmed for Feb:

10 days ago:

 

Today:

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

Their methodology has a pretty good track record. This does not seem too far fetched

Cosgrove’s just released Nov forecast disagrees just slightly :

 I think that CWG will verify much more closely based on the Euro Weeklies.

[snowman19]

Very strong signal for a warm November IMO

[qg_omega]

54 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

Their methodology has a pretty good track record. This does not seem too far fetched

Looks like warmest CONUS November, December ever 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand that it's true, but given the rarity of blizzards of that magnitude, it just seems tone-deaf.  I'm not angry...I just don't get it....sure, the anomaly with respect to the warmth is more impressive statistically speaking, but anyone with a pulse is more compelled by the anomaly that is magnificently impacting their sensible weather in the short-term. Focusing on the blizzard that is dropping 30" in your drive way and understanding that CC is real are not mutually exclusive...why is their this tacit mindset that you're in denial unless you're strutting around nude on main street with a banner touting your ever-expanding Hadley Cell. Shit, strap on a loin-cloth and enjoy the fruits of ma-nature; smoke 'em if ya got 'em, as fleeting as they may be.

I mean, I got married, had 4 kids, launched a career and purchased a home..."geez, look at that guy, he's in denial about his own mortality"...

"Why bother, he's just going to die anyway, idiot"-

What weather enthusiast wouldnt marvel about how warm it is in Phoenix when theres a blizzard in his own backyard? 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Very strong signal for a warm November IMO
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yet, the Euro-AIFS shows decent snow in southern Canada the 1st 15 days of November. I'd show further north, but Pivotal doesn't offer that map. 

Even some in the NE US.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like warmest CONUS November, December ever 

You predict that every year.

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Cosgrove’s just released Nov forecast disagrees just slightly :

 I think that CWG will verify much more closely based on the Euro Weeklies.

Bamwx likes a cool November 

[snowman19]

Yet, the Euro-AIFS shows decent snow in southern Canada the 1st 15 days of November. I'd show further north, but Pivotal doesn't offer that map. 
Even some in the NE US.

Ok

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Bamwx likes a cool November 

The first half of November will definitely be warmer than avg. November (at least here) is the most rapidly changing month of the entire year from first day to last. So with the natural transition from Fall to winter alone, I would expect the second half to be solidly colder than the first, but in the end, highly confident anyone in the north finishes the month on the cool side of normal is an ill-advised call.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The first half of November will definitely be warmer than avg. November (at least here) is the most rapidly changing month of the entire year from first day to last. So with the natural transition from Fall to winter alone, I would expect the second half to be solidly colder than the first, but in the end, highly confident anyone in the north finishes the month on the cool side of normal is an ill-advised call.

In these parts, November snow is rarer than March snow so temps are pretty meaningless. I'd rather save the oil for when it counts anyway.  Lol

[SnoSki14]

30 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like warmest CONUS November, December ever 

Not gonna lie if winter is gonna be like its been the last 2 weeks then sign me up. 

Yes it's dull as dirt, San Diego style weather,  but it feels great. 

I know we'll pay for it next spring/summer though. Summer 2027 will be a complete global disaster. 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. Only if you honestly want it warm it is.

You are a funny guy. The reason that I point out how much warmer things have become is due to the fact that I grew up in a much colder 1970s and 1980s. This is literally a new climate paradigm. Not because I like such a warmer planet.

But most people off this forum like a warmer climate since a large portion of the population has been moving to the Sunbelt from the colder regions. But there has been some small shift to this long term trend in the last few years.

 

9 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Huh? Why does something need to be more impressive than something else? It's all impressive. I'm just not all that surprised by that. That's what super el nino does. 

Since we live here near the surface and not up in the stratosphere. Numerous posts on how the stratosphere might change the eventual outcome vs the super El Niño. Not meant to single you out since I understand that you were only posting the data. But the super El Niño is a much greater climate driver in comparison. 

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Jesus, Chris....we get it. There's no hope.

"My beach umbrella is bigger than your snow shovel"

We pretty much knew where this was headed with the record WWBs last spring and the early model shift to a stronger and stronger east based El Niño. So no hopes are going to get dashed since expectations were lowered in accordance to how extreme an east based event this has become. 

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There was literally a generational blizzard ongoing last February, and he was posting images illustrating how the magnitude of that the anomaly paled in comparison to the warmth in the southwest....love-ya-mean-it, Chris...but wow-

The national and global climate system is much bigger than our local backyards. Last winter was our first both cold and snowy winter in 11 years. The limited area of the cold against the background of the 2nd warmest CONUS winter on record explains what has happened.

The cold since the 2015-2016 super El Niño baseline shift has become extremely limited. So the chances of any one winter being both colder and snowier than average is becoming less likely.

The geographic footprint of the cold when it does occur is more limited. So this new pattern made it possible for us to go this long before experiencing a colder winter.

In the old days it was possible to get coast to coast widespread cold. So our chances for a colder winter in any given location were greater.

These days we can’t get a colder winter winter in a portion of the CONUS without a much more impressive warm winter somewhere else.

We were discussing snowfall before last winter and during previous winters. I was very happy to get the benchmark storm track back for the first time since 21-22. But it highlights how important the benchmark track is for our snow especially since the mid-90s.

In the colder climate prior to the mid-90s, we could nickel and dime our way to normal snowfall especially around NYC Metro. It was possible during the colder era to have an average snowfall season with just small or moderate events. But for the last 30 years getting a KU benchmark storm has become a prerequisite. 

This has lead to the snowfall for places around NYC to become an all or nothing proposition with hardly any more seasons near the mid-20s average.

I also said in earlier years that it would be a struggle to get another 50” snowfall season in NYC with how warm the winters have become. Since NYC proper needs a winter close to 32° in order to pull this off. The colder temperatures are necessary but not always sufficient like we found out last winter.

Areas like Islip to the east and Newark to the west don’t fall into this category which I also pointed out years ago. 

So it’s more of a NYC and surrounding stations like LGA and JFK requirement. 
 

 

[snowman19]

Massive WWB coming for early-mid next month. This will cause even more warming in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4, setting the stage for the December peak. This super El Niño has secured and guaranteed its rightful place as the strongest and most east-based in history….

[LakePaste25]

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Very strong signal for a warm November IMO
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The trade off here is that we probably avoid a December 2015-like outcome and instead see something closer to December 1997. 

[qg_omega]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yet, the Euro-AIFS shows decent snow in southern Canada the 1st 15 days of November. I'd show further north, but Pivotal doesn't offer that map. 

Even some in the NE US.

Literally shows nothing across almost all of southern Canada

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Literally shows nothing across almost all of southern Canada

We disagree on geographic labels.