2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

 
 I closely followed the DMI site’s 80+N Arctic temps showing 2026 being the coldest on record (back to 1958) by a good margin late May-early August and posted many times about that here and in the Arctic Ice thread. There’s little doubt it was notably colder there than recent summers, especially N of Alaska, and it helped the Arctic ice.
 However, as[mention=564]bluewave[/mention][mention=36]OSUmetstud[/mention]emphasized in discussions with me, they convinced me to think that comparing to DMI charts prior to 2002 per Chris (see his quote below) and possibly even to all years through 2025 per [mention=36]OSUmetstud[/mention] (due possibly to a cooler ECMWF bias introduced in May of 2026) MAY make the appearance of the summer of 2026 being significantly colder than all years 1958-2025 per the DMI graphs deceptive because of the DMI ECMWF data.
 
Per Chris in Arctic Ice thread:
“Even the less reliable ECWMF only starts in 2002, so an apples to apples comparison to any year earlier than 2002 can’t be made.”
——————
 However, I’m still very open-minded about just how cold it really was in 80N+ late May-early Aug relative to 1958-2025, especially 2002+, pending continued research of other knowledgeable people’s opinions. Look how cold June 2026 was N of 80N per actual ERA5 reanalysis:
1. only ~1/7 is in warmest 1/2 of years vs ~6/7 in coldest 1/2
2. a little >50% is in 4 coldest colors meaning coldest 11 of 87 while only ~6% is in warmest 11, which is 3. ~25% is in coldest 3 of 8 while only ~1% is in warmest 3 of 87, which is a mere 1/25 of the size of coldest 3

 
This 80N+ close-up came from this image below: only the relatively small area (~1/7 of 80N+) of light green, beige, yellow, orange, and reds is warmer than the median while >50% (4 coldest colors or coldest 11 of 87) is 87%+ percentile cold!

 
 So, does this cold of an ERA5 reanalysis actually support this cold of a DMI 80N+ June ‘26? Food for thought at least.

The models may be off but the ice data does not lie. I’m more interested in the fact that one would have thought the opposite would have occurred this summer. That we would be looking at a new record sea ice low based on the amount of heating happening overall. Having such a contrast between the record heat in the tropics and a relatively cold Arctic will act to enhance storm formation this cold season. What that means practically i am not sure. I do have full confidence in an active STJ and storm track.


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[GaWx]

 After a decent rise in last week’s release from +0.59 to +0.88, the latest weekly IOD update had no change. But that could easily just be a short-lived pause in the general upward trend since June 1st. Based on the history of IOD usually maxing out by Nov, I’m giving it another month to see if we get a very strong IOD peak this late autumn/early winter. One can see on this chart how much stronger was the +IOD in autumn 2023! At this time then, the IOD was already peaking way up at +1.91! Even in 2019 on this date it was way up at +1.94!

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCK000072/iod_1.txt?1791781094025

@snowman19

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 After a decent rise in last week’s release from +0.59 to +0.88, the latest weekly IOD update had no change. But that could easily just be a short-lived pause in the general upward trend since June 1st. Based on the history of IOD usually maxing out by Nov, I’m giving it another month to see if we get a very strong IOD peak this late autumn/early winter. One can see on this chart how much stronger was the +IOD in autumn 2023! At this time then, the IOD was already peaking way up at +1.91! Even in 2019 on this date it was way up at +1.94!
https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCK000072/iod_1.txt?1791781094025

[mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]

It’s going to strengthen more and a classic +IOD forcing signature is showing up on the OLR charts, so it’s coupling. Question is how high does it peak next month?

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 Look how much the forecasted mean GEFS NAO has risen from its Oct 13th forecast to today’s forecast!

Oct 13th: peaking at only +1.0 on Oct 15th and then plunging to -1/remaining down at -0.9 on Oct 27th:

Today’s prog (Oct 19th): peaked not til today way up at +1.73 and already after a dip to -0.8 back up to ~0 on Oct 27th:

 I’m assuming this drastic change is related to the actual strong storm offshore the E US that wasn’t even forecasted back on Oct 13th thus leading to lower actual SLP in Iceland today than progged 6 days ago.

Daily NAO: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.gefs.z500.120days.csv

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Look how much the forecasted mean GEFS NAO has risen from its Oct 13th forecast to today’s forecast!

Oct 13th: peaking at only +1.0 on Oct 15th and then plunging to -1/remaining down at -0.9 on Oct 27th:

Today’s prog (Oct 19th): peaked not til today way up at +1.73 and already after a dip to -0.8 back up to ~0 on Oct 27th:

 I’m assuming this drastic change is related to the actual strong storm offshore the E US that wasn’t even forecasted back on Oct 13th thus leading to lower actual SLP in Iceland today than progged 6 days ago.

Daily NAO: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.gefs.z500.120days.csv

NAO will definitely end the month +. By exactly how much and its significance obviously tbd. Hopefully, Chuck's observation that any October +NAO favors the opposite for the winter prevails. 

[Typhoon Tip]

looks like yet another NINO 3.4 spike has take place...  ~+3.2C now. 

[LakePaste25]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

looks like yet another NINO 3.4 spike has take place...  ~+3.2C now. 

 

On 10/13/2026 at 9:14 AM, LakePaste25 said:

Typical short-term temporary drop of 3.4/r3.4 due to the evaporative cooling induced by strong WWBs. Once that settles in a week or two, they should start shooting to the moon again. 

 

Yup, right on schedule

[Keith Central PA]

8 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

Yup, right on schedule

I hate strong ninos and waiting for its demise.We peak early December and by next Summer  neutral or a weak La Nina Definitely a more active hurricane season next year and a more promising winter then this probable disaster.

[forkyfork]

the nao was negative in 1998

[MJO812]

Judah Cohen

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the nao was negative in 1998

Was it really?

1998   0.39  -0.11   0.87

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Was it really?

1998   0.39  -0.11   0.87

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

yes

[mitchnick]

Just now, forkyfork said:

yes

You said it was - in 1998. I posted January-March 1998. That map is December, 1997-February 1998. 

That's not 1998.

[snowman19]

[A-L-E-K]

folks still doing the few good weeks cope?

[FPizz]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

What did this have 15 days ago happening today?  Just want to see how it did.  

[mitchnick]

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Since I don't have an X account, you should probably give them this link because that run, when put in motion, clearly shows that trough off the west coast retrograding WEST, NOT EAST, in the frames leading up to that 360hr map they posted.

Agenda, agenda....that's all I see.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026101900&fh=18

[snowman19]

Since I don't have an X account, you should probably give them this link because that run, when put in motion, clearly shows that trough off the west coast retrograding WEST, NOT EAST, in the frames leading up to that 360hr map they posted.
Agenda, agenda....that's all I see.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026101900&fh=18

Commoditywx does not have an agenda. Last winter he was hyping cold runs. He’s as neutral as they come

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Commoditywx does not have an agenda. Last winter he was hyping cold runs. He’s as neutral as they come

You may want to reconsider. 

[LakePaste25]

Just now, mitchnick said:

You may want to reconsider. 

That’s not modeling a retrograde. You can clearly see the secondary center of LP N of HI moving east to replace it. The eastward end is just getting smoothed out. Come on now. The entire wave pattern is literally locked in. 

[LakePaste25]

Here are the 850s for that same loop:

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

That’s not modeling a retrograde. You can clearly see the secondary center of LP N of HI moving east to replace it. The eastward end is just getting smoothed out. Come on now. The entire wave pattern is literally locked in. 

Disagree. That post had the trough moving east by the arrows. It's not moving east. And to say the eastward end is just smoothing out is your interpretation. 

 

 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Here are the 850s for that same loop:

 

Residual cold. Look how far the heights are off the coast matching the low anomaly.