2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[annunciated]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Even more impressive is +10c spanning almost 2,500 miles. And steady over long periods of time. It would take quite a bit of energy to produce that unnaturally. 

Interpreting from ARMOR3D's measurements, not only does it span actually about 3,500 miles but also likely has the width of roughly 3-4 degrees of latitude (2N-2S) and a depth of 25 meters on average. The energy required to heat a specific area like that to +10C is ridiculous. If it's anywhere in the >10^16 joule range, which I believe it is, good luck producing that unnaturally.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The earth's #1 motive is self-preservation, and the primary resistance to this objective is prohibitive warmth.

I dont know how many of you are aware of this but for 85% of this planet's history there was no ice anywhere on the planet. That being said yes the planet self regulates and as an example the Amazon even controls its own rainfall. The planet will be fine even either way the question is will humanity?

Human beings are not the only creatures to alter the planet and ACC is nowhere close to the worst thing that's ever happened to this planet. Blue green algae aka phytobacteria altered the entire composition of the atmosphere and without them we wouldn't be here. The K-T event that ended the dinosaurs and 75% of all life on the planet was far worse than ACC is and happened in a much shorter time frame and the planet recovered just fine. As a matter of fact ACC can be thought of as the revenge of the dinosaurs as it may cause the climate to return to what it was like before the K-T event by literally burning their remains!

[raindancewx]

Going to be very interesting to see if we get 'normal' El Nino conditions here. So far the Summer here has been about as hot as ever recorded, with near record low precipitation as well. 2023 was even drier in the Summer, but we're running hotter. Summer has been very close to 1953, 1958, 2023 as a blend, all the sort of drought plagued, -PDO, El Nino, very +AMO shit years locally.

It's actually been very interesting - for the past month little batches of rain showers have formed late evening almost every night. But they are widely scattered and have only brought drizzle to the city most nights. A lot of the terrible monsoon years don't even have the showers form. But they typically perform best for rainfall late afternoon to about 8 pm. We've seen showers develop in the 8 pm to 2 am time frame and then sizzle out, which is unusual here for formation time.

The Atlantic has really warmed up quite a bit relative to averages over the past 2-3 weeks. I think we will actually see a brief period of decent hurricane season activity in September.

My hottest average temperature El Nino Summers are these winters: 1994, 2023, (2003 borderline El Nino), 1958, 2018, 1953, 2002.

We tend to get fluky out-of-season heavy snow events following very hot and very dry Summers here. 1994-95 snowed a lot in April, 1953-54 in November, 2002-03 in March, 1958-59 in March, 2023-24 in November. Several of these also see good snow in the main winter too. My guess is the MJO will set up to favor bigger storms nationally in something like an Oct 15-->Nov 30-->Jan 15-->Mar 1-->Apr 15 fashion for major events given the local Summer data supports unusual concentration of heavy snow events in Nov/Mar/Apr so far, more than the winter.

[GaWx]

The latest few CFSv2 4 day means have reduced the Feb cold in the SE substantially:

 

 Compare that to how cold it was on the 4 day mean just 2.5 days prior:

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

The latest few CFSv2 4 day means have reduced the Feb cold in the SE substantially:

 

 Compare that to how cold it was on the 4 day mean just 2.5 days prior:

It's been waxing and waning since February came into view. If you go to the actual Cfs2 site and check out the monthly forecasts, it's a little colder than what the TT site shows due to different time periods.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know...uncharted territory. I think that season has some surprises in store.

Starting to see +11 subsurface anomalies now.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Starting to see +11 subsurface anomalies now.

 

If you were to fathom a scenario that would at long last, reposition that dreaded west-warm pool, this is it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont know how many of you are aware of this but for 85% of this planet's history there was no ice anywhere on the planet. That being said yes the planet self regulates and as an example the Amazon even controls its own rainfall. The planet will be fine even either way the question is will humanity?

Human beings are not the only creatures to alter the planet and ACC is nowhere close to the worst thing that's ever happened to this planet. Blue green algae aka phytobacteria altered the entire composition of the atmosphere and without them we wouldn't be here. The K-T event that ended the dinosaurs and 75% of all life on the planet was far worse than ACC is and happened in a much shorter time frame and the planet recovered just fine. As a matter of fact ACC can be thought of as the revenge of the dinosaurs as it may cause the climate to return to what it was like before the K-T event by literally burning their remains!

Good points.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Going to be very interesting to see if we get 'normal' El Nino conditions here. So far the Summer here has been about as hot as ever recorded, with near record low precipitation as well. 2023 was even drier in the Summer, but we're running hotter. Summer has been very close to 1953, 1958, 2023 as a blend, all the sort of drought plagued, -PDO, El Nino, very +AMO shit years locally.

It's actually been very interesting - for the past month little batches of rain showers have formed late evening almost every night. But they are widely scattered and have only brought drizzle to the city most nights. A lot of the terrible monsoon years don't even have the showers form. But they typically perform best for rainfall late afternoon to about 8 pm. We've seen showers develop in the 8 pm to 2 am time frame and then sizzle out, which is unusual here for formation time.

The Atlantic has really warmed up quite a bit relative to averages over the past 2-3 weeks. I think we will actually see a brief period of decent hurricane season activity in September.

My hottest average temperature El Nino Summers are these winters: 1994, 2023, (2003 borderline El Nino), 1958, 2018, 1953, 2002.

We tend to get fluky out-of-season heavy snow events following very hot and very dry Summers here. 1994-95 snowed a lot in April, 1953-54 in November, 2002-03 in March, 1958-59 in March, 2023-24 in November. Several of these also see good snow in the main winter too. My guess is the MJO will set up to favor bigger storms nationally in something like an Oct 15-->Nov 30-->Jan 15-->Mar 1-->Apr 15 fashion for major events given the local Summer data supports unusual concentration of heavy snow events in Nov/Mar/Apr so far, more than the winter.

Yea, I'm with you on feeling as though the old regime isn't entirely washed out, even though it may appear as though it should be.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We always talk about a lag with respect to ENSO....this may be a case where that logic can be applied on a grander scale....yea, yea....record coupling in the tropics, I get it...but we don't live there.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We always talk about a lag with respect to ENSO....this may be a case where that logic can be applied on a grander scale....yea, yea....record coupling in the tropics, I get it...but we don't live there.

You haven't visited the Mid Atlantic lately, have you? 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you were to fathom a scenario that would at long last, reposition that dreaded west-warm pool, this is it.

Maybe the Walker circulation is finally beginning to weaken. The strengthening in recent decades went against model forecasts. Probably due to an incomplete understanding of how it works. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105332

The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) weakens under global warming in climate change projections, supported by a global hydrological constraint. However, the PWC has strengthened over the past decades despite ongoing global warming, and the cause has been a puzzle.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50156-9

Our finding of a reversal in ENSO evolution from an initial increase to a subdued or collapsed amplitude toward 2300 highlights a strong nonlinear response of ENSO to persistent greenhouse warming. Under transient greenhouse warming, the fast warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, though initially contributing to an increase in ENSO variability, sows the seeds of a subsequent ENSO decrease by reducing the potential intensity and shrinking the climatological non-convective area of the equatorial Pacific. Establishing atmospheric convection in the reduced non-convective area induces small convective and wind anomalies that feed into the Bjerknes feedback. The associated curtailing effect eventually leads to the ENSO reduction. Although ENSO from a reduction to an eventual collapse is seen in some models, the likelihood in other models requires experiments integrated beyond the 23rd century, but such an evolution represents no good news, because it means that the oscillatory nature of ENSO impacts would be replaced by a quasi-permanent condition that is similar to an El Niño in many respects, therefore with a cumulative impact on affected regions.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe the Walker circulation is finally beginning to weaken. The strengthening in recent decades went against model forecasts. Probably due to an incomplete understanding of how it works. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105332

The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) weakens under global warming in climate change projections, supported by a global hydrological constraint. However, the PWC has strengthened over the past decades despite ongoing global warming, and the cause has been a puzzle.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50156-9

Our finding of a reversal in ENSO evolution from an initial increase to a subdued or collapsed amplitude toward 2300 highlights a strong nonlinear response of ENSO to persistent greenhouse warming. Under transient greenhouse warming, the fast warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, though initially contributing to an increase in ENSO variability, sows the seeds of a subsequent ENSO decrease by reducing the potential intensity and shrinking the climatological non-convective area of the equatorial Pacific. Establishing atmospheric convection in the reduced non-convective area induces small convective and wind anomalies that feed into the Bjerknes feedback. The associated curtailing effect eventually leads to the ENSO reduction. Although ENSO from a reduction to an eventual collapse is seen in some models, the likelihood in other models requires experiments integrated beyond the 23rd century, but such an evolution represents no good news, because it means that the oscillatory nature of ENSO impacts would be replaced by a quasi-permanent condition that is similar to an El Niño in many respects, therefore with a cumulative impact on affected regions.

Congrats to my great, great, great, great, great grandkids on perpetual El Nino.

[LakePaste25]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Congrats to my great, great, great, great, great grandkids on perpetual El Nino.

It already feels like we’re heading that direction on a very small scale. The  weak La Nina’s we had the last 2 years have exhibited extended Modoki-like patterns at least prior to February. 

[Maestrobjwa]

33 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

It already feels like we’re heading that direction on a very small scale. The  weak La Nina’s we had the last 2 years have exhibited extended Modoki-like patterns at least prior to February. 

And here I eas thinking we were going the opposite way with the perpetual nina we've had...I mean one double nina and one triple dip in the last 6 years has just been dumb, lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And here I eas thinking we were going the opposite way with the perpetual nina we've had...I mean one double nina and one triple dip in the last 6 years has just been dumb, lol

It seems to me like we are establishing a modest cool ENSO baseline of sorts due to the increased warmth pooling in the western Pacific, however, for that same reason the frequency of powerful El Nino events is also increasing as part or the overall redistribution oriented efforts to maintain the global heat budget.....ie more frequent La Nina, but weaker...less frequent El Nino, but more powerful ones.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'm with you on feeling as though the old regime isn't entirely washed out, even though it may appear as though it should be.

Need the return of hemispheric seasonal gradient increase - the triggered machinery response ( wave spacing and speeds and jet location biases ..et all) will be conducted by the new maestro so to speak.  Prior to that, all we have is WWBs and vague SS stressing differentiating SST pattern/morphology, happening amid a generic summer hemisphere that remains unresponsive.  The gradient and the response/forcing of planetary wave modes come hand in hand

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Need the return of hemispheric seasonal gradient increase - the triggered machinery response ( wave spacing and speeds and jet location biases ..et all) will be conducted by the new maestro so to speak.  Prior to that, all we have is WWBs and vague SS stressing differentiating SST pattern/morphology, happening amid a generic summer hemisphere that remains unresponsive.  The gradient and the response/forcing of planetary wave modes come hand in hand

Yea, I get it's too early to definitely say whether that will chance by the time that the winter season ensues, but the mid latitude ground truth relative to the development of past major El Nino events dictates that this definitely remains a work on progress.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And here I eas thinking we were going the opposite way with the perpetual nina we've had...I mean one double nina and one triple dip in the last 6 years has just been dumb, lol

The average 3.4 SSTa adjusted for GW has leaned significantly toward La Niña the last 20 years with an avg anomaly of -0.3C.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The average 3.4 SSTa adjusted for GW has leaned significantly toward La Niña the last 20 years with an avg anomaly of -0.3C.

Nooooo  (good for some areas though)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Again, the most positive 7-year ENSO time in history (since 1948) followed the only other time we had 5/6 La Nina years (1970-1976) (ONI)

70-71: Moderate La Nina

71-72: Weak La Nina

72-73: Strong El Nino

73-74: Strong La Nina

74-75: Weak La Nina

75-76: Strong La Nina

Only other period on record to have 5/6 La Nina's, until 2020-2026 (RONI):

20-21: Moderate La Nina

21-22: Moderate La Nina

22-23: Moderate La Nina

23-24: Moderate El Nino

24-25: Moderate La Nina

25-26: Weak La Nina

ENSO tends to even out, historically. Here is what followed the 70-76 streak:

76-77: Moderate El Nino

77-78: Moderate El Nino

78-79: Neutral

79-80: Weak El Nino

80-81: Neutral

81-82: Neutral

82-83: Super El Nino

 

(07-12 was 4/5 La Nina's, then didn't see another one for 4 years, and 3 years later 15-16 was Super El Nino.

86-95 was 4 El Nino's vs 1 La Nina, and was followed by 4/6 La Nina's.

95-01 was 4 La Nina's vs 1 El Nino, and flipped to 2 El Nino, 2 Neutral, 0 La Nina's for 4 years, and the 97-98 Super El Nino was in there.

*The 76-83 4 El Nino vs 0 La Nina was followed by only 2 El Nino's in the following 8 years in +PDO, and the Strongest La Nina on record (88-89) occurred in that period.)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-SOI picking up again the last 2 days

20 Aug 2026	1013.20	1017.40	-35.32	-17.97	-22.25
19 Aug 2026	1013.80	1016.85	-28.34	-17.37	-22.07

 

And 7 straight days of -17 or lower. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

New CPC temp outlook for JFM, kind of surprising it's based with mean ridge over NE more than NW

Matches Nino 1+2 JFM composite

[qg_omega]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

New CPC temp outlook for JFM, kind of surprising it's based with mean ridge over NE more than NW

Matches Nino 1+2 JFM composite

Conus torch

[Ephesians2]

42 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

New CPC temp outlook for JFM, kind of surprising it's based with mean ridge over NE more than NW

Matches Nino 1+2 JFM composite

implies a bad Pacific, which I think is more likely than not unless the PDO reverses

[mitchnick]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

New CPC temp outlook for JFM, kind of surprising it's based with mean ridge over NE more than NW

Matches Nino 1+2 JFM composite

What was their prediction at this point for last winter if you know?

[A-L-E-K]

cope^

[csnavywx]

We've tapped the brakes here on the subsurface (peaking in the short run around +10-11C) as the trades temporarily recovered a bit, but the recent very strong WWB plus a migration of the standing wave towards 160W over the next ~10d should put the pedal back to the metal. CFSv2 forecasts are just playing catch-up on fully integrating the effects of wind stress and should bottom out here in the next week or so before crawling back up.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

New CPC temp outlook for JFM, kind of surprising it's based with mean ridge over NE more than NW

Matches Nino 1+2 JFM composite

I'm getting this vibe from these outlooks that they're more interested in the N Atlantic/index correlation than the PNA to this point in time.  Not sure why that lean as both it and the +PNA are at least linearly-neg correlated. 

The 2009/2010 season tucked a short lived but potent warm ENSO into the tail end of 2009 into the first quarter of '10. That was a winter whence the NAO became so excessive it jammed all events into the SE/MA, while up this way in NE ended up with suppression depression        In a neutral ENSO year, a +PNA correlates more negatively with NAO during JAN/FEB anyway.  But 2010 perhaps "over" ideally situated that result. There may have been other hemispheric things gong on that constructively interfered and drove a synergistic wild hyper response with that look that season/year.  It was nuts!  That one "snowmaggedon" storm looked as though it was really a hybrid between any cyclone at all, together with a mass-restoring forced nodal trough pinned there by the coupled -NAO state. fascinating. I believe at least a handful of official seasonal snow totals  down there exceeded climo at sites around SNE and NNE - but not sure of that. Still, getting to within reach of N climates, in principle, evinces the point.   It was like their 2015. 

But ...as 2015 demos... +ENSOs don't always do that.  That's why I think the other was a bit of a "positive bust".  It may be worth considering though that it can happen once, it can happen again.   Leaning more E Can/NW Atl block with that weird neg tube of heights tunneling underneath down stream like Will was mentioning.. heh.  It sort of reminds me of 'too much of a good thing' and you guys taxing the love lorn to get even more euphoric reach-arounds. 

For now, I guess it being so early in the game ...best to just go with +volatility for having lower heights in the TV whilst blocking resides N in the means - should that prevail. 

I'll tell ya though ... this will be an interesting autumn in the guidance.

 

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

cope^

+4 coming and they think they have a chance