2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[annunciated]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Even more impressive is +10c spanning almost 2,500 miles. And steady over long periods of time. It would take quite a bit of energy to produce that unnaturally. 

Interpreting from ARMOR3D's measurements, not only does it span actually about 3,500 miles but also likely has the width of roughly 3-4 degrees of latitude (2N-2S) and a depth of 25 meters on average. The energy required to heat a specific area like that to +10C is ridiculous. If it's anywhere in the >10^16 joule range, which I believe it is, good luck producing that unnaturally.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The earth's #1 motive is self-preservation, and the primary resistance to this objective is prohibitive warmth.

I dont know how many of you are aware of this but for 85% of this planet's history there was no ice anywhere on the planet. That being said yes the planet self regulates and as an example the Amazon even controls its own rainfall. The planet will be fine even either way the question is will humanity?

Human beings are not the only creatures to alter the planet and ACC is nowhere close to the worst thing that's ever happened to this planet. Blue green algae aka phytobacteria altered the entire composition of the atmosphere and without them we wouldn't be here. The K-T event that ended the dinosaurs and 75% of all life on the planet was far worse than ACC is and happened in a much shorter time frame and the planet recovered just fine. As a matter of fact ACC can be thought of as the revenge of the dinosaurs as it may cause the climate to return to what it was like before the K-T event by literally burning their remains!

[raindancewx]

Going to be very interesting to see if we get 'normal' El Nino conditions here. So far the Summer here has been about as hot as ever recorded, with near record low precipitation as well. 2023 was even drier in the Summer, but we're running hotter. Summer has been very close to 1953, 1958, 2023 as a blend, all the sort of drought plagued, -PDO, El Nino, very +AMO shit years locally.

It's actually been very interesting - for the past month little batches of rain showers have formed late evening almost every night. But they are widely scattered and have only brought drizzle to the city most nights. A lot of the terrible monsoon years don't even have the showers form. But they typically perform best for rainfall late afternoon to about 8 pm. We've seen showers develop in the 8 pm to 2 am time frame and then sizzle out, which is unusual here for formation time.

The Atlantic has really warmed up quite a bit relative to averages over the past 2-3 weeks. I think we will actually see a brief period of decent hurricane season activity in September.

My hottest average temperature El Nino Summers are these winters: 1994, 2023, (2003 borderline El Nino), 1958, 2018, 1953, 2002.

We tend to get fluky out-of-season heavy snow events following very hot and very dry Summers here. 1994-95 snowed a lot in April, 1953-54 in November, 2002-03 in March, 1958-59 in March, 2023-24 in November. Several of these also see good snow in the main winter too. My guess is the MJO will set up to favor bigger storms nationally in something like an Oct 15-->Nov 30-->Jan 15-->Mar 1-->Apr 15 fashion for major events given the local Summer data supports unusual concentration of heavy snow events in Nov/Mar/Apr so far, more than the winter.

[GaWx]

The latest few CFSv2 4 day means have reduced the Feb cold in the SE substantially:

 

 Compare that to how cold it was on the 4 day mean just 2.5 days prior:

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

The latest few CFSv2 4 day means have reduced the Feb cold in the SE substantially:

 

 Compare that to how cold it was on the 4 day mean just 2.5 days prior:

It's been waxing and waning since February came into view. If you go to the actual Cfs2 site and check out the monthly forecasts, it's a little colder than what the TT site shows due to different time periods.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know...uncharted territory. I think that season has some surprises in store.

Starting to see +11 subsurface anomalies now.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Starting to see +11 subsurface anomalies now.

 

If you were to fathom a scenario that would at long last, reposition that dreaded west-warm pool, this is it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont know how many of you are aware of this but for 85% of this planet's history there was no ice anywhere on the planet. That being said yes the planet self regulates and as an example the Amazon even controls its own rainfall. The planet will be fine even either way the question is will humanity?

Human beings are not the only creatures to alter the planet and ACC is nowhere close to the worst thing that's ever happened to this planet. Blue green algae aka phytobacteria altered the entire composition of the atmosphere and without them we wouldn't be here. The K-T event that ended the dinosaurs and 75% of all life on the planet was far worse than ACC is and happened in a much shorter time frame and the planet recovered just fine. As a matter of fact ACC can be thought of as the revenge of the dinosaurs as it may cause the climate to return to what it was like before the K-T event by literally burning their remains!

Good points.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Going to be very interesting to see if we get 'normal' El Nino conditions here. So far the Summer here has been about as hot as ever recorded, with near record low precipitation as well. 2023 was even drier in the Summer, but we're running hotter. Summer has been very close to 1953, 1958, 2023 as a blend, all the sort of drought plagued, -PDO, El Nino, very +AMO shit years locally.

It's actually been very interesting - for the past month little batches of rain showers have formed late evening almost every night. But they are widely scattered and have only brought drizzle to the city most nights. A lot of the terrible monsoon years don't even have the showers form. But they typically perform best for rainfall late afternoon to about 8 pm. We've seen showers develop in the 8 pm to 2 am time frame and then sizzle out, which is unusual here for formation time.

The Atlantic has really warmed up quite a bit relative to averages over the past 2-3 weeks. I think we will actually see a brief period of decent hurricane season activity in September.

My hottest average temperature El Nino Summers are these winters: 1994, 2023, (2003 borderline El Nino), 1958, 2018, 1953, 2002.

We tend to get fluky out-of-season heavy snow events following very hot and very dry Summers here. 1994-95 snowed a lot in April, 1953-54 in November, 2002-03 in March, 1958-59 in March, 2023-24 in November. Several of these also see good snow in the main winter too. My guess is the MJO will set up to favor bigger storms nationally in something like an Oct 15-->Nov 30-->Jan 15-->Mar 1-->Apr 15 fashion for major events given the local Summer data supports unusual concentration of heavy snow events in Nov/Mar/Apr so far, more than the winter.

Yea, I'm with you on feeling as though the old regime isn't entirely washed out, even though it may appear as though it should be.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We always talk about a lag with respect to ENSO....this may be a case where that logic can be applied on a grander scale....yea, yea....record coupling in the tropics, I get it...but we don't live there.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We always talk about a lag with respect to ENSO....this may be a case where that logic can be applied on a grander scale....yea, yea....record coupling in the tropics, I get it...but we don't live there.

You haven't visited the Mid Atlantic lately, have you? 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you were to fathom a scenario that would at long last, reposition that dreaded west-warm pool, this is it.

Maybe the Walker circulation is finally beginning to weaken. The strengthening in recent decades went against model forecasts. Probably due to an incomplete understanding of how it works. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105332

The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) weakens under global warming in climate change projections, supported by a global hydrological constraint. However, the PWC has strengthened over the past decades despite ongoing global warming, and the cause has been a puzzle.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50156-9

Our finding of a reversal in ENSO evolution from an initial increase to a subdued or collapsed amplitude toward 2300 highlights a strong nonlinear response of ENSO to persistent greenhouse warming. Under transient greenhouse warming, the fast warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, though initially contributing to an increase in ENSO variability, sows the seeds of a subsequent ENSO decrease by reducing the potential intensity and shrinking the climatological non-convective area of the equatorial Pacific. Establishing atmospheric convection in the reduced non-convective area induces small convective and wind anomalies that feed into the Bjerknes feedback. The associated curtailing effect eventually leads to the ENSO reduction. Although ENSO from a reduction to an eventual collapse is seen in some models, the likelihood in other models requires experiments integrated beyond the 23rd century, but such an evolution represents no good news, because it means that the oscillatory nature of ENSO impacts would be replaced by a quasi-permanent condition that is similar to an El Niño in many respects, therefore with a cumulative impact on affected regions.