2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/17/2026 at 9:12 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

On more of a personal note ... if this ensuing "winter" isn't going to deliver - which frankly, having a CC as a launch pad upon which a warm ENSO of this ilk is sky rocketing off of, heh ... ah - good luck.  Sounds like a warm synergistic massacre..  Not helping that we've had this upstream active solar disk fire hosing the 150 thru 1 kPa depths over the Pole for the last year.  Anyway, I just would rather not have any of it because 4 months on mud as a season, in the dark, is some kind of middle earth dystopian shit.

I'm not saying I don't have appreciation ( and hope ) for fantastic winter patterns and consequence.  But having a passion and fascination for winter weather events, quite necessarily needs to be fed winter events; it does not include the dreaded 42 F winter.

The problem is, it takes a denier at this point to not sense the growing dearth of decent winters. Or at least it seems that way. A stab at an objective opinion here ..., let's see:  CC + history-making warm ENSO --> plausible synergistic emergence between those not necessarily meaning cold (duh) + solar-cleansed stratosphere + this ...

...occurring under a lowering boreal heights?

Explosive potential.  Absolutely!  That unfortunately does not include a cold or cryo-profile, necessarily.

By and large, the last impressive winter, IMHO, goes all the way back to 2014-2015... and it wasn't actually the whole winter. And, it didn't really involve the larger community?   Mainly a SNE/CNE affair.  We just had 3 1/2 weeks of utter carnage in those sub-forum regions during February 2015; so overwhelming ... the constituency of these regions think that winter was phenomenal. I think that 3 1/2 weeks was a "planetary storm" - a concept pushed forth by a theoretical Met back in the last Century but damn! that was a great argument for his conjecture. Not sure that was a whole winter, though.  I guess in fairness, getting 150 to 300% of normal whole season's snow, amid lung aching cold ... probably should qualify the whole winter?  

I don't need all that.  Just give us a steady diet of nickle and dime storms that add appeal as an active winter pattern.  There'll be potential to do more along the way.  Maybe one will blockbuster.  Otherwise, if I were god, I would make it 60 F with frequent runs at 70, in some sort of freak show scary warm time of it, so that I can continue with outdoor activities and just deal with 16 hours of darkness days.   Also, I would look up all my enemies and afflict them with a kitchen renovation project - having been suffering this fuckin thing going on weeks now ... I've seriously gazed out at sunsets while deeply reconsidering life choices.  

Tell me why it won't snow ever again in 5,486 words or more-

JK

[Keith Central PA]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tell me why it won't snow ever again in 5,486 words or more-

JK

Problem is he has history (strong Nino's) to support his views. You don't have to go out on a limb to forecast  above normal temps this winter. Hopefully we are all wrong.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... that doesn't even look like a climate inference here.  It looks like a straight up geophysical response. Like in the model process, the boreal Pacific/seasonality presses up against that colossal heat source between the Date Line and Central N/A. Rather simplistic arithmetically, too.  Like two factored:  seasonally cooling N + supremely hot S = boom jet. I only mention it cuz of the "C" in C3S. Doesn't that mean 'climate' ? 

It brings to mind ... I haven't heard much talk about AR phenomenon.   "Atmospheric Rivers" are a real thing.  Their identity I've recently felt has been over applied and (no pun intended) thus watered down.  Like every time California was getting a cut-off low over the lower G of Alaska, sending spoke waves of wind and rain into the west coast we were getting AR headlines and I'm like no - not really.  I mean it may be that the definition can apply?  But the origination of the Atmospheric River identification of phenomenon was linked to what is called a "Pineapple Express" - from HA, a fire hose sets up... and it's more like a hemispheric event than a local pattern ordeal.  'Sides, those Cali reservoir recovery events were surprisingly during La Ninas.  Whole nother weirdness...

Anyway, the pummeling California took in 1983 was (apparently) tied to a super Nino of the era; now that was an AR/Pineapple Express. 

So, the stuff above can be right in principle, but the placement could end up N of that axis just the same.  And maybe, just maybe is an early hint

I agree. I wouldn't be surprised if there are multiple category 4 or above atmospheric rivers this winter. I think it's just impressive that the guidance is hinting at the development of the subtropical jet for the September-November period. That didn't even show up in the fall forecast during the weaker 2023-2024 El Niño. Details about placement are beyond what the guidance can simulate at such timeframes.

[michsnowfreak]

14 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Problem is he has history (strong Nino's) to support his views. You don't have to go out on a limb to forecast  above normal temps this winter. Hopefully we are all wrong.

Hes talking about winters in general, in typical Tip fashion, not just the coming winter. If he wants "a steady diet of nickle and dime storms that add appeal as an active winter pattern" then he needs to go back to his old stomping grounds in west Michigan. That happens very frequently. And BOTH the Great Lakes and New England had one of their all-time snowiest decades on record in the 2010s, which is not ancient history. I sometimes think people long for courier and ives paintings over reality when remembering winters of yore lol. Remember, slightly warmer winter temps in some places are BETTER for snowfall, not worse.

[csnavywx]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Hes talking about winters in general, in typical Tip fashion, not just the coming winter. If he wants "a steady diet of nickle and dime storms that add appeal as an active winter pattern" then he needs to go back to his old stomping grounds in west Michigan. That happens very frequently. And BOTH the Great Lakes and New England had one of their all-time snowiest decades on record in the 2010s, which is not ancient history. I sometimes think people long for courier and ives paintings over reality when remembering winters of yore lol.

Ironically, if the increase in Nino variance extends to CP Ninos (as some CMIP6 models suggest may happen soon), then we may see enhanced CP episodes in addition to EP episodes, which ofc will be far more effective for cold winter patterns here. Add in PV disruption via a shoaling Atlantic water into the Arctic (setting up an increasing amount of ridging) and that may also constructively interfere. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Problem is he has history (strong Nino's) to support his views. You don't have to go out on a limb to forecast  above normal temps this winter. Hopefully we are all wrong.

No one is disputing above normal temps...at least in the NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Ironically, if the increase in Nino variance extends to CP Ninos (as some CMIP6 models suggest may happen soon), then we may see enhanced CP episodes in addition to EP episodes, which ofc will be far more effective for cold winter patterns here. Add in PV disruption via a shoaling Atlantic water into the Arctic (setting up an increasing amount of ridging) and that may also constructively interfere. 

My crude theory is that the planet ultimately finds a way to achieve some semblance of an equilibrium....and this unprecedented El Nino is a testament to that.

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My crude theory is that the planet ultimately finds a way to achieve some semblance of an equilibrium....and this unprecedented El Nino is a testament to that.

That "snap back" effect may be more pronounced than currently imagined: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02730-w

[michsnowfreak]

13 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Ironically, if the increase in Nino variance extends to CP Ninos (as some CMIP6 models suggest may happen soon), then we may see enhanced CP episodes in addition to EP episodes, which ofc will be far more effective for cold winter patterns here. Add in PV disruption via a shoaling Atlantic water into the Arctic (setting up an increasing amount of ridging) and that may also constructively interfere. 

I will say, all things considered and all the discussion in this thread....I am not as worried about this winter locally as I would a normal strong Nino. Of course, I still expect an overall subpar winter. Just not as subpar as strong Ninos can be. Its going to be fascinating (and likely at times frustrating) to see how the nino does affect overall weather patterns.  

[michsnowfreak]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one is disputing above normal temps...at least in the NE.

Sometimes people confuse the discussion of wintry potential and temp departures as if the two have to go hand in hand. Discussion of above avg temps in the mean has never wavered in this thread, even when pointing out models that disagree (ie Cansips). 

A cool stat out of Marquette, MI. Their snowiest winter on record, 319.8" in 2001-02, was also their 3rd warmest winter on record.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Sometimes people confuse the discussion of wintry potential and temp departures as if the two have to go hand in hand. Discussion of above avg temps in the mean has never wavered in this thread, even when pointing out models that disagree (ie Cansips). 

A cool stat out of Marquette, MI. Their snowiest winter on record, 319.8" in 2001-02, was also their 3rd warmest winter on record.

Well in my area, it really needs to be a bit cooler than average to get big snows, but I'm not suggesting that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

That "snap back" effect may be more pronounced than currently imagined: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02730-w

2060? Damn, I'll be 80....lets speed that up-

[forkyfork]

16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I will say, all things considered and all the discussion in this thread....I am not as worried about this winter locally as I would a normal strong Nino. Of course, I still expect an overall subpar winter. Just not as subpar as strong Ninos can be. Its going to be fascinating (and likely at times frustrating) to see how the nino does affect overall weather patterns.  

you are going to get at least one +10 month and barely any snow

[LakePaste25]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well in my area, it really needs to be a bit cooler than average to get big snows, but I'm not suggesting that.

Here as well, at least on a daily basis. +3 or +4 in the monthly is probably the upper limit here where I can get a week of big lake snows while the rest of the month is a torch. Higher than +4, we’re getting into “the whole month is shot outside of a some minor/medium snowfalls” territory. 

[LakePaste25]

that’s why super ninos all have below normal snow here. Every month is usually greater than +3. No room for week+ long lake snow blitz’s to save the season. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll take the over on "barely any snow" in Michigan this coming winter, but a +10 month would not shock me.

[csnavywx]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2060? Damn, I'll be 80....lets speed that up-

Might be sooner. In a separate interview the author said it may start earlier with the sub-polar gyre and we're already hugging the upper end of the equiv. warming rates in the paper.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Might be sooner. In a separate interview the author said it may start earlier with the sub-polar gyre and we're already hugging the upper end of the equiv. warming rates in the paper.

Oh, pretty please...this would represent an interplanetary orgie for me. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it will come with some unforeseen, dystopian (as John would say)externality, but we are getting those anyway with the hockey-stick rate of CC, so what the hell...may as well get some snow and cold on the way to meeting our collective maker.

[BlizzardWx]

On 8/16/2026 at 9:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow, that satellitewx.com site is incredible.....

It's been a lot of work setting it up, let me know if there is anything you want added. I'm open to requests and it helps all of us to have better tools.

On 8/16/2026 at 5:35 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

OH I love this product.   heh.  I've been in my internal monologue for years literally saying the density of the frequency has been ..etc..etc.   Weird.  It's actually called phase density.  

Different topic:  I find it interesting that it's been biased on the left side like that, and it happens to predate the ENSO by some.   I'm wondering if the WWB flux/anomaly quotient is constructively interfering there a bit.  In which case, the phasing may actually not reflect as much pure MJO momentum as it does an environmental resonance.   

I've often stated in the past that the MJO isn't a pattern drive.  It's a pattern augmenter.  If the wave is in constructive interference the phase diagram balloons ... depending on the basal hemispheric mode/wave numbers at the time the MJO is attempting to emerge out of the Marine continent. In the much broader perspective, when in phase the dispersion into the mid latitudes is in sync with the Pacific orientation that sends N/A into a NW conveyor.

To get a sense of if the positive(negative) interference scheme, I look at a combination of the Asia circulation mode together with the WPO index (outlook and recent biases). A -WPO phases constructively with 7-8-1-2 MJO ... then transmitted across the wave train of the Pacific sends a +PNA. I would call such a hemisphere harmonically interfering (constructive).  Since the warm ENSO mode significantly correlates with this, that adds. Contrasting, if the MJO is 3-4-5-6, that is a destructive interference (technically a loss of constructive due to geometric placement around the equatorial girdle). But in this latter circumstance ... it is less than clear if the MJO will even factor as the Asia/-WPO can quite obviously at times overwhelm/suppress - it's presence is still there but it's rendered meaningless if the former is dictating policy.  This is how constructive vs destructive interfering manifests on the pattern. 

I've often fantasized about a phase diagram that isn't the scalar wave propagation coherency, but is the Constructive vs Destructive interference. There are times when a robust wave propagation seems not to correlate so well with the N arc of the Pac --> western N/A.  The pattern disconnect times may show some proportionality to C or D.

I'm going to have to think about this to deeply understand but I think I like this idea! If I can figure out a way to automate it I'll add it to the site. 

[Ephesians2]

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well in my area, it really needs to be a bit cooler than average to get big snows, but I'm not suggesting that.

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Here as well, at least on a daily basis. +3 or +4 in the monthly is probably the upper limit here where I can get a week of big lake snows while the rest of the month is a torch. Higher than +4, we’re getting into “the whole month is shot outside of a some minor/medium snowfalls” territory. 

The Marquette example was just sort of a fun stat of what can and does happen in the far north. Certainly not a projection for anyone lol.

For me, being in the Great Lakes region but outside the heavy snow belts, theres no question that "deep winter" needs average to below average temps to maintain a constant snowpack, thick lake ice, etc. Last year is an absolute textbook example. Well above avg snowcover and below avg temps gave us a severe winter despite actual snowfall finishing around 90% of average (was on pace for better but March fell totally flat).

But actual total snowFALL is really dependent on how a season goes. It's a long window from November to April to get snowstorms, so its quite feasible to get average snowfall (40-45") with above to well above avg temps. Pretty much getting over 50", however, tends to require near normal (or below) temps. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the over on "barely any snow" in Michigan this coming winter, but a +10 month would not shock me.

Troll comments arent even worth a response.

If there is a +10F month, I cant see how it's anything other than December. It wouldnt shock me knowing the history of strong Ninos, but it seems a low chance the way everything looks now. 

Regardless of actual departures, Id put money on December being the warmest month relative to avg, not just of the winter, but the entire cold season.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, BlizzardWx said:

It's been a lot of work setting it up, let me know if there is anything you want added. I'm open to requests and it helps all of us to have better tools.

I'm going to have to think about this to deeply understand but I think I like this idea! If I can figure out a way to automate it I'll add it to the site. 

Bookmarked it! Looks great!

Just one question, any idea why the CANSIPS seasonal looks quite different than on tropical tidbits?