2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Bad guess!

There's no 500mb map on this site, but 700mb will be close enough at this point.

You are not going to get a deep EC trough with the Pacific like that. The Pacific is a more powerful pattern driver. They used to happen like that in the 1960s but not anymore. Model error/flaw. 

[LakePaste25]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You are not going to get a deep EC trough with the Pacific like that. The Pacific is a more powerful pattern driver. They used to happen like that in the 1960s but not anymore. Model error/flaw. 

It worked in 09-10 but that’s because there was a TPV anchored near James Bay that could phase with these pacific systems. Without that, we’re just relying on dynamic cooling which tends to only favor snow for the mountains. Pacific jet is also usually too strong to allow a TPV to anchor up there. 

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You are not going to get a deep EC trough with the Pacific like that. The Pacific is a more powerful pattern driver. They used to happen like that in the 1960s but not anymore. Model error/flaw. 

It's a 3 month average and Cfs2 is showing on the monthly forecasts that December's a dumpster fire and February looks workable to great. So you're going to get goofy 3 month averages.