2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Jebman]

I am so happy about this super nino. It is going to be amusing watching so many torrential storms pile up water in the southeastern US this autumn, winter and in Spring 2027!

[BuffaloWeather]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just feel like discord is much more difficult to follow.....it's just rapid faire posts that just scroll into oblivion. I prefer the pages on the forum.

It has to be organized properly. Once you learn how to use it, it’s much more efficient and can look back at old threads just as easy. 

[BlizzardWx]

MJO has certainly been hugging the 6-7-8-1 this summer. If that carries into the winter it'd be a nice change to continuous 4-5-6. 

[Mercurial]

On 6/27/2026 at 1:08 PM, GaWx said:

I’m wondering if W Yellowstone Gateway, which is at 6,666 ft, could get some snow:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING 
TO NOON MDT MONDAY... 

* WHAT...PERIODS OF WET SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 
4 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BIG SKY, WEST YELLOWSTONE, TARGHEE PASS, 
AND RAYNOLDS PASS 
942 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026

TONIGHT 
COLDER. RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN 
THE EVENING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 4 INCHES. LOWS 31 TO 37.

IF W Yell. Gate can somehow get any measurable SN late tonight, it would be a new record latest in season meas. on record by 20 days! They’ve had no meas. June 9th-Sep 14th although records go back only to 2007. But even just a T would be notable as they’ve had only 2 Ts June 28th-Sep 4th since 2007:

Records:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=tfx
 

https://grizzlyrv.com/what-is-the-elevation-of-west-yellowstone/

Sorry to grave dig but just saw this.  We only received a few sleet pellets from this event, but in June of last year (June 22, 2025) we received about half an inch of snow that the local recording station appears to measured as a Trace.  Typically we get snowflakes most Junes and Septembers, although it often doesn't stick.  

[EasternLI]

This current WWB looking pretty impressive. This isn't even the anomalies, these are the actual zonal winds. 

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

The main difference with 77-78 and modern El Niño events, is that the 77-78 warmth was confined to the upper midwest. Departures in NYC, DC, and Boston were not that impressive.  In fact, NYC in Jan 1878 had a mean temperature below 30 degrees. 

Modern El Niño events, the upper midwest ridge is not only displaced eastward, but it’s likely more expansive, so places like NYC see major positive departures such as what occurred in December 2015. 

 

All the really big events share the warmth across the Northern tier states. But the exact location of the warmest departures from month to month and season to season varies from the Upper Plains into the Northeast.

The record ridge with the 1877-1878 event parked just north of Minnesota. So the departures up in Canada may have been even higher than MSP.

The big story in the East that winter was the lowest snowfall that we have records for at some stations during the 1800s. While it was cold enough to snow in general, the storm track got suppressed by the ridge in December so it was a dry month.

In January and February the storm track in NYC was too warm for much snow and the big storms were mostly rain. So NYC finished only 8.1” that winter when the average from the 1840s into the 1870s was close to 40” in that much colder climate.

So the actual variations within the larger theme this winter will emerge from month to month. 

At this point we know the strength of the event in the Pacific is the strongest that we have experienced in 150 years. There are currently +10 departures showing up beneath the surface. With the event already producing departures at the surface far ahead of anything that we have experienced in August. Record WWBs are continuing this week.

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, Jebman said:

I am so happy about this super nino. It is going to be amusing watching so many torrential storms pile up water in the southeastern US this autumn, winter and in Spring 2027!

This is an interesting take Jeb! I know you love your snow, but many snow lovers take a hard pass on winter rain. 

[csnavywx]

 

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

All the really big events share the warmth across the Northern tier states. But the exact location of the warmest departures from month to month and season to season varies from the Upper Plains into the Northeast.

The record ridge with the 1877-1878 event parked just north of Minnesota. So the departures up in Canada may have been even higher than MSP.

The big story in the East that winter was the lowest snowfall that we have records for at some stations during the 1800s. While it was cold enough to snow in general, the storm track got suppressed by the ridge in December so it was a dry month.

In January and February the storm track in NYC was too warm for much snow and the big storms were mostly rain. So NYC finished only 8.1” that winter when the average from the 1840s into the 1870s was close to 40” in that much colder climate.

So the actual variations within the larger theme this winter will emerge from month to month. 

At this point we know the strength of the event in the Pacific is the strongest that we have experienced in 150 years. There are currently +10 departures showing up beneath the surface. With the event already producing departures at the surface far ahead of anything that we have experienced in August. Record WWBs are continuing this week.

 

I'll add on a bit here and say that the Arctic is much warmer now than in these events (especially post-2007). Quality of source region air is not going to be the same. If 1877-78 and the Great Nino of 1788-93 had trouble getting it to work, I'm not sure the baseline expectation here should be much different. The sample size here for these extreme Ninos is tiny ofc, so it is unlikely we have sampled the extent of the distribution but if these events (and the 1600s Nino) are any indication, we should probably not discount how fat the right (warm) tail is here.

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is an interesting take Jeb! I know you love your snow, but many snow lovers take a hard pass on winter rain. 

He's in south Texas and has been real dry lately. Different perspective from his former residence in N Virginia. 

[mitchnick]

Lots of warming to go on the Cfs2 850 anomalies, but it looks like the beginning of the end come early November.  

[LakePaste25]

59 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is an interesting take Jeb! I know you love your snow, but many snow lovers take a hard pass on winter rain. 

I’m similar. While i enjoy snow the most, I do like a good great lakes cutter bomb with high winds. I also enjoy severe storms in the summer. 

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I’m similar. While i enjoy snow the most, I do like a good great lakes cutter bomb with high winds. I also enjoy severe storms in the summer. 

I love a good summer storm (as long as it doesn't knock down trees lol). But in winter I couldn't care less about rain. Id rather miss an entire storm than get rain. The previous 2 winters had hardly any rain (especially in Jan/Feb). I suspect this winter sees more rain and wet snow than the last 2 combined. The last two years were almost all powder. Which i love, I just like to switch it up a bit.

[GaWx]

 CFSv2 10 day run mean is still not backing off of a cold Feb in a large portion of the US, especially corridor from SE US to C Plains where most areas are a whopping 5-7.5F BN though I’d prefer Alaska and NW Canada be AN:

 

  Compare this to the same for Feb of 2024 from about the same 10 day mean in Aug of 2023:

 

[so_whats_happening]

20 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

TAO/TRITON has reached +10c in the subsurface! First time I think this has ever happened (someone correct me if I'm wrong). That's +18f. Wonder if we'll reach +20F. 

It did in 1997 just a few weeks earlier this go around.

I don't yet know why but feel this will peak earlier than expected.

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 CFSv2 10 day run mean is still not backing off of a cold Feb in a large portion of the US, especially corridor from SE US to C Plains where most areas are a whopping 5-7.5F BN though I’d prefer Alaska and NW Canada be AN:

 

  Compare this to the same for Feb of 2024 from about the same 10 day mean in Aug of 2023:

 

Still rising slowly.

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Still rising slowly.

Thanks, Mitch. It has risen >1 in just 14 days!