2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[EasternLI]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

My point was despite any warming, last year's Niña was pretty canonical. This year's Niño can still happen (canonical) by either the PDO coming around or the Niño overwhelming it. And when you consider all the seasonal models are pretty well aligned to one, odds favor it short of a total failure of all seasonal modeling. 

Ah, I see what happened now. Sorry for the confusion this morning. You probably thought I was referencing what bluewave was posting about. I was not. I was referencing what so_whats_happening had posted. About recurving typhoons. Which is why I quoted him. Was a coincidence I posted that right after BW did. I think I could have worded that a little better. Perhaps it was just too early.

[GaWx]

CFS is at warmest yet!

Nov peak +3.75 vs record +2.69! Also, still has a record crazy rapid plunge Dec-Mar!

OND peak +3.5 vs record +2.52!

[EasternLI]

This loop is impressive.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

53 minutes ago, GaWx said:

CFS is at warmest yet!

Nov peak +3.75 vs record +2.69! Also, still has a record crazy rapid plunge Dec-Mar!

OND peak +3.5 vs record +2.52!

Yeah, that plunge looks like 1973, 1988, 1998, 2010 territory. All of those years resulted in a backlash, strong la nina.

[cmillzz]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

CFS is at warmest yet!

Nov peak +3.75 vs record +2.69! Also, still has a record crazy rapid plunge Dec-Mar!

OND peak +3.5 vs record +2.52!

If the anticipated decay of the Niño occurs during that timeframe (or ideally later), it would favor another warm and active spring for the Midwest especially. I’ll take it.

[snowman19]

3.4 Over +2C:

 
 

 

 

 

1+2 Over +4C:



Region 3 over +3C:




Thermocline:


 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

 

 

[GaWx]

 I know that the right sides of these are typically overdone and that’s nearly certainly the case here, of course. But the last 2 weeks of the 12Z 8/1/26 CFSv2 AAM prog is one for the books with the earliest 4+ amp. in a run from a member that I’ve ever seen (day 20) as well as the first run I’ve seen with more than two members at 4+ at the same time! This one has ALL 4 members at 4+ on the far right allowing them to actually have room to put the 4 member color key on the far right instead of on the far left like it always has been: 

@snowman19

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, mitchnick said:

You've posted this several times this year and even before the 24/25 winter. So are you saying the ridges will be or won't be stronger and thereby causing current seasonal modeling for the southeast, mid atlantic, and/or northeast to be wrong? I mean you could be right, or you could be wrong  obviously, but your post appear to be simply saying "current seasonal modeling could be wrong." Forget about the rest of the globe because I'm sure we'll find seasonal modeling too strong or weak with ridges/troughs as that's a given.

How can anyone take the seasonal models at face value for the winter which is 4-6 months away when the May forecast for this June and July only 1-2 months out had such significant errors? 

This is another example of the models not having much skill beyond the 15 day period.

Notice how the ridges in the mid-latitudes verified much stronger leading to the strong -PDO +AMO pattern. 

The forecasts were going for a general Nino 3.4 correlation which didn’t work out. So it looks like the models are just defaulting to Nino 3.4 climatology for June and July.

Back in 2023-2024 the winter forecasts also defaulted to general Nino 3.4 correlations with the ridges verifying much stronger and the troughs weaker. 

 

Forecasts from around May 1st

June Forecasts

June correlation for Nino 3.4

 

 

June verification

July forecasts 

July correlation Nino 3.4

July verification

 

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

How can anyone take the seasonal models at face value for the winter which is 4-6 months away when the May forecast for this June and July only 1-2 months out had such significant errors? 

This is another example of the models not having much skill beyond the 15 day period.

Notice how the ridges in the mid-latitudes verified much stronger leading to the strong -PDO +AMO pattern. 

The forecasts were going for a general Nino 3.4 correlation which didn’t work out. So it looks like the models are just defaulting to Nino 3.4 climatology for June and July.

Back in 2023-2024 the winter forecasts also defaulted to general Nino 3.4 correlations with the ridges verifying much stronger and the troughs weaker. 

 

Forecasts from around May 1st

June Forecasts

June correlation for Nino 3.4

 

 

June verification

July forecasts 

July correlation Nino 3.4

July verification

 

Can't you ever answer a simple question with a simple answer? When I was in law school, they beat into our heads: be brief and to the point. I didn't ask if any models should be taken at face value. I asked if" the ridges will be or won't be stronger and thereby causing current seasonal modeling for the southeast, mid atlantic, and/or northeast to be wrong?" 

So, do you or don't you? Because right now, your statements are nothing more than "could be." Which leaves them open to you claiming victory if they are stronger and defending the statements if they aren't by saying "I said could be."

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Can't you ever answer a simple question with a simple answer? When I was in law school, they beat into our heads: be brief and to the point. I didn't ask if any models should be taken at face value. I asked if" the ridges will be or won't be stronger and thereby causing current seasonal modeling for the southeast, mid atlantic, and/or northeast to be wrong?" 

So, do you or don't you? Because right now, your statements are nothing more than "could be." Which leaves them open to you claiming victory if they are stronger and defending the statements if they aren't by saying "I said could be."

First, let’s get something straight right now. The weather and climate isn’t law school. Trying to reduce weather patterns to some type of legalistic definition isn’t going to fly. 

All we can say is beyond two weeks is that the models lose skill. But they have been making errors in certain types of ways. One is to underestimate the magnitude and even location of the ridges. The other is that the troughs have been verifying weaker. 

We are currently heading into a super El Niño without precedent. First, the strength is going off the scale. Second, the 500 mb weather patterns are currently in more of -PDO +AMO pattern. This has never happened before.

So it’s probably a reasonable guess at this early point that the ridges during the winter will continue verify stronger than the model forecasts like that have most winters over the last decade and the troughs weaker.

If you want the exact locations now, then I think you are being unrealistic. Especially since the 500mb pattern is yet to take on a more traditional pattern. So we are going to have to wait and see how close or different the pattern develops going forward.

So even if a 10%-20% Niña-like mid-latitude ridge enhancement continues into the winter, it could lead the El Niño ridge pressing further south and east than usual. 
 

 

 

 

[rclab]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

How can anyone take the seasonal models at face value for the winter which is 4-6 months away when the May forecast for this June and July only 1-2 months out had such significant errors? 

This is another example of the models not having much skill beyond the 15 day period.

Notice how the ridges in the mid-latitudes verified much stronger leading to the strong -PDO +AMO pattern. 

The forecasts were going for a general Nino 3.4 correlation which didn’t work out. So it looks like the models are just defaulting to Nino 3.4 climatology for June and July.

Back in 2023-2024 the winter forecasts also defaulted to general Nino 3.4 correlations with the ridges verifying much stronger and the troughs weaker. 

 

Forecasts from around May 1st

June Forecasts

June correlation for Nino 3.4

 

 

June verification

July forecasts 

July correlation Nino 3.4

July verification

 

 

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Can't you ever answer a simple question with a simple answer? When I was in law school, they beat into our heads: be brief and to the point. I didn't ask if any models should be taken at face value. I asked if" the ridges will be or won't be stronger and thereby causing current seasonal modeling for the southeast, mid atlantic, and/or northeast to be wrong?" 

So, do you or don't you? Because right now, your statements are nothing more than "could be." Which leaves them open to you claiming victory if they are stronger and defending the statements if they aren't by saying "I said could be."

I feel, MN, that your first sentence speaks more of frustration than contention. My understanding of the atmosphere is less than fragmentary when compared to the well versed members of our forum. To give a simple answer in predicting the behavior of our atmosphere may be thought of as courageously assertive or assertively foolish. I do agree with your law school instructors admonition. Could such a ‘brief and to the point’ desire be applied to judicial decisions in our courts. Perhaps only to a jury with just a one or two word answer to a judge’s final question. 
Please don’t take exception to what I’ve writes. I want to thank you for giving what grey matter I have left, some exercise. As always 

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First, let’s get something straight right now. The weather and climate isn’t law school. Trying to reduce weather patterns to some type of legalistic definition isn’t going to fly. 

All we can say is beyond two weeks is that the models lose skill. But they have been making errors in certain types of ways. One is to underestimate the magnitude and even location of the ridges. The other is that the troughs have been verifying weaker. 

We are currently heading into a super El Niño without precedent. First, the strength is going off the scale. Second, the 500 mb weather patterns are currently in more of -PDO +AMO pattern. This has never happened before.

So it’s probably a reasonable guess at this early point that the ridges during the winter will continue verify stronger than the model forecasts like that have most winters over the last decade and the troughs weaker.

If you want the exact locations now, then I think you are being unrealistic. Especially since the 500mb pattern is yet to take on a more traditional pattern. So we are going to have to wait and see how close or different the pattern develops going forward.

So even if a 10%-20% Niña-like mid-latitude ridge enhancement continues into the winter, it could lead the El Niño ridge pressing further south and east than usual. 
 

 

 

 

So you think everything in law is black and white? You're kidding me right? The point you miss is one doesn’t need to say a lot to make a point. 

The past 2 or 3 months, you've been triggered every month with the updated seasonal forecasts because they haven't shown a furnace in the east. In essence, your warning is models have under forecasted the strength of ridges  in the past which "could" be taken as guaranteed future results i.e. stronger ridges resulting in more heat. But no real forecast because we just don't know yet...but it still "could."

That really is the sum and substance of all those posts the way I see it. Where am I wrong?

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

So you think everything in law is black and white? You're kidding me right? The point you miss is one doesn’t need to say a lot to make a point. 

The past 2 or 3 months, you've been triggered every month with the updated seasonal forecasts because they haven't shown a furnace in the east. In essence, your warning is models have under forecasted the strength of ridges  in the past which "could" be taken as guaranteed future results i.e. stronger ridges resulting in more heat. But no real forecast because we just don't know yet...but it still "could."

That really is the sum and substance of all those posts the way I see it. Where am I wrong?

Perhaps you lack understanding of my posts and the weather patterns in general is related to your stated disinterest beyond your backyard.

Maybe if you broaden out your horizons a bit to encompass the greater climate system your frustration will begin to decline.

I know you like the CanSIPS since you post it all the time. So you get triggered when people point out that it’s not a very good model.
 

 

[snowman19]

Here is a very interesting recent study on positive (westerly) QBO’s with El Niños

Link: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL112854

Key Points:

Westerly Phase Impact: The westerly phase of the QBO suppresses tropical convection in the western Pacific, accentuating the weakening of the Walker circulation typical during El Niño. Observational and model evidence show that the QBO modulates upper-tropospheric divergence, with reduced outflow over the Maritime Continent during the westerly phase. It can also impact the warm phase of ENSO, El Niño, characterized by a weakened Walker circulation. These results suggest that considering the QBO state could improve El Niño prediction and projection, particularly for extreme events.

@LakePaste25 @EasternLI @GaWx @donsutherland1 @40/70 Benchmark @Stormchaserchuck1

[qg_omega]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

So you think everything in law is black and white? You're kidding me right? The point you miss is one doesn’t need to say a lot to make a point. 

The past 2 or 3 months, you've been triggered every month with the updated seasonal forecasts because they haven't shown a furnace in the east. In essence, your warning is models have under forecasted the strength of ridges  in the past which "could" be taken as guaranteed future results i.e. stronger ridges resulting in more heat. But no real forecast because we just don't know yet...but it still "could."

That really is the sum and substance of all those posts the way I see it. Where am I wrong?

We have the strongest east based Nino on record, it’s going to be an historic warm winter.  This is not difficult

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Perhaps you lack understanding of my posts and the weather patterns in general is related to your stated disinterest beyond your backyard.

Maybe if you broaden out your horizons a bit to encompass the greater climate system your frustration will begin to decline.

I know you like the CanSIPS since you post it all the time. So you get triggered when people point out that it’s not a very good model.
 

 

Oh, the need for a cheap shot can't escape you can it? You've shown your true colors. That was easy.

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

So you think everything in law is black and white? You're kidding me right? The point you miss is one doesn’t need to say a lot to make a point. 

The past 2 or 3 months, you've been triggered every month with the updated seasonal forecasts because they haven't shown a furnace in the east. In essence, your warning is models have under forecasted the strength of ridges  in the past which "could" be taken as guaranteed future results i.e. stronger ridges resulting in more heat. But no real forecast because we just don't know yet...but it still "could."

That really is the sum and substance of all those posts the way I see it. Where am I wrong?

Many forecasts are for warmth but they are just going by enso. Many other factors to consider. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We have the strongest east based Nino on record, it’s going to be an historic warm winter.  This is not difficult

Dude nothing is set in stone this early. Some of you haven't learned a thing about long range forecasting.  

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Oh, the need for a cheap shot can't escape you can it? You've shown your true colors. That was easy.

You posted recently how you don’t care about the weather patterns beyond your own local area. This isn’t a cheap shot since I am simply pointing out your stated stance. You are the main person in this thread taking cheap shots at others.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You posted recently how you don’t care about the weather patterns beyond your own local area. This isn’t a cheap shot since I am simply pointing out your stated stance. You are the main person in this thread taking cheap shots at others.

Oh, the "not me, it's you" defense. Lol

If you call trying to get to the bottom line of a post/position an attack, I  can't help you. But the bottom line is, you haven't denied my synopsis of your post/position because it's accurate. Which is fine. You can take whatever position you want. But clarity matters, that's all.

[GaWx]

 

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I know that the right sides of these are typically overdone and that’s nearly certainly the case here, of course. But the last 2 weeks of the 12Z 8/1/26 CFSv2 AAM prog is one for the books with the earliest 4+ amp. in a run from a member that I’ve ever seen (day 20) as well as the first run I’ve seen with more than two members at 4+ at the same time! This one has ALL 4 members at 4+ on the far right allowing them to actually have room to put the 4 member color key on the far right instead of on the far left like it always has been: 

@snowman19

 Amazingly, the very next CFSv2 run of AAM (0Z on 8/2/26) is even more extreme overall than the posted prior run making it the most extreme I’ve ever seen although this one never quite gets all 4 at 4+ simultaneously (so the first week and last few days are only parts not more extreme): this one already has two at 4+ at day 20! @snowman19

[bluewave]

On 7/21/2026 at 9:14 AM, mitchnick said:

Without going into a competing long response, I  frankly just don't care about a warming planet. There's nothing I  can do about it aside from having a well insulated home (which I have since I receive the highest rating from my local energy provider for houses my size) and driving a fuel efficient vehicle. It is not, nor has it ever been, on my list of life's concerns at all. I care about weather imby and judge that weather from current conditions and progs. How those conditions got there, I don't care.

 

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Oh, the "not me, it's you" defense. Lol

If you call trying to get to the bottom line of a post/position an attack, I  can't help you. But the bottom line is, you haven't denied my synopsis of your post/position because it's accurate. Which is fine. You can take whatever position you want. But clarity matters, that's all.

 

[bluewave]

On 7/21/2026 at 9:14 AM, mitchnick said:

Without going into a competing long response, I  frankly just don't care about a warming planet. There's nothing I  can do about it aside from having a well insulated home (which I have since I receive the highest rating from my local energy provider for houses my size) and driving a fuel efficient vehicle. It is not, nor has it ever been, on my list of life's concerns at all. I care about weather imby and judge that weather from current conditions and progs. How those conditions got there, I don't care.

 

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Oh, the "not me, it's you" defense. Lol

If you call trying to get to the bottom line of a post/position an attack, I  can't help you. But the bottom line is, you haven't denied my synopsis of your post/position because it's accurate. Which is fine. You can take whatever position you want. But clarity matters, that's all.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Many forecasts are for warmth but they are just going by enso. Many other factors to consider. 

Yeah, I will always point out that the coldest winter CONUS in the 21st century was during a strong la nina. Strong/super el ninos generally mean warmth, but not always.

It's too early to tell whether this upcoming winter is going to be warm, but if the models are still showing a cold signal in September, then people need to accept that it will probably be colder (and possibly snowier) winter.

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, I will always point out that the coldest winter CONUS in the 21st century was during a strong la nina. Strong/super el ninos generally mean warmth, but not always.

It's too early to tell whether this upcoming winter is going to be warm, but if the models are still showing a cold signal in September, then people need to accept that it will probably be colder (and possibly snowier) winter.

Which super El Niños were cold winters (Dec-Mar)? 72-73: warm,  82-83: warm, 97-98: warm, 15-16: warm

*PHL-NYC-BOS corridor. Strong doesn’t count*

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Which super El Niños were cold winters (Dec-Mar)? 72-73: warm,  82-83: warm, 97-98: warm, 15-16: warm

I assume you’re referring specifically to the NE US as the first 3 winters weren’t warm in the SE. They were pretty close to normal there.

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Which super El Niños were cold winters (Dec-Mar)? 72-73: warm,  82-83: warm, 97-98: warm, 15-16: warm

Yeah, there weren’t any cold winters in the East with super El Niños relative to the climatology at the time. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, I will always point out that the coldest winter CONUS in the 21st century was during a strong la nina. Strong/super el ninos generally mean warmth, but not always.

It's too early to tell whether this upcoming winter is going to be warm, but if the models are still showing a cold signal in September, then people need to accept that it will probably be colder (and possibly snowier) winter.

September is also early. Check back in November.

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I assume you’re referring specifically to the NE US as the first 3 winters weren’t warm in the SE. They were pretty close to normal there.

This will not be a cold winter ( definitely the first half )  we have to see how fast the EL nino weakens.