Feb 10-11 Mid Week Minor Event - Ride the hot hand?

[radarman]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

12z NAM kind of meh except around the pike region

I usually like the Nam and think it's underrated as a tool in the box, but it's really struggled lately.   That said, I approve of the weenie stripe IMBY.  It's dead on this time I'm sure.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nam loves SVT though  

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

I usually like the Nam and think it's underrated as a tool in the box, but it's really struggled lately.   That said, I approve of the weenie stripe IMBY.  It's dead on this time I'm sure.

12z NAM isn't matching up with the radar to the west at all though..

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

3k definitely looking convective along the cold front in SNE. Maybe in and out in 1-2hrs?

 

I've been pretty intrigued by that...it's been a signal on mesos for a bit now. Even the awful RRFS has had it

[dendrite]

3k is pretty horrible south of here. Maybe an inch at MHT.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

12z NAM isn't matching up with the radar to the west at all though..

I believe models are known to actually struggle with precipitation initialization so it's probably not something to put alot into  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I've been pretty intrigued by that...it's been a signal on mesos for a bit now. Even the awful RRFS has had it

3 inches in 90 minutes?

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

12z NAM isn't matching up with the radar to the west at all though..

There’s no snow reports in PA right now…all RH is below 70%. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

3 inches in 90 minutes?

Let's shoot for 5

But lets say this convective band is true, I don't think its all snow...I think its a mixture of snow and sleet or maybe more sleet than snow.

 

[radarman]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z NAM isn't matching up with the radar to the west at all though..

It's actually matching up quite well across Ontario IMO... the sim radar product could be thresholded a bit and may not pick up the weak echoes that extend down across C PA and back into MI, but that stuff won't amount to much anyway.

[SouthCoastMA]

The NAM is a passing rain shower mixed with graupel while the RGEM is 4". I'm guessing the latter caves at 12z

[weatherwiz]

This is going to be a weird one tonight. Outside of parts of New Hampshire and Maine I don't think we're going to be seeing anything uniform tonight. I could see many not even picking up 1/2" of snow while some are lucky and puke out 2-3". Lots of convective elements within this and pockets of stronger lift. For those with snow, the ratios are going to struggle too outside of those pockets of stronger lift so I don't think this is one where we "ratio our way" to 3". 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

You’ve been on a roll the last couple days. Tough to keep up with which models people are justifying their snow with these days 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This looks like a nuisance, if that here, maybe an inch if we are lucky 

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This looks like a nuisance, if that here, maybe an inch if we are lucky 

I remember a similar comment a few days ago. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I remember a similar comment a few days ago. 

What’s your forecast for here? Seems kind of marginal and then weak on top of that. Doesn’t scream exciting 

[CoastalWx]

Some models jack Southern, New Hampshire and far mass, and then others jack the pike region with that convective band. Just a weird system.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What’s your forecast for here? Seems kind of marginal and then weak on top of that. Doesn’t scream exciting 

I’d say 1-3 range covers it. Somewhere in that range.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I remember a similar comment a few days ago. 

I do have to laugh how he gets on you in the Pats thread, but you have to hold him up in here. 

[ineedsnow]

Icon meh for SNE might have to bump down from 2 to 4 to 1  to 3 

[Go Kart Mozart]

What the hell is this over Methuen?

[ma blizzard]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

What the hell is this over Methuen?

 

most of that falls in a 3 hr period .. would make for some impressive rates 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

What the hell is this over Methuen?

.40 here ? Lol

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, ma blizzard said:

most of that falls in a 3 hr period .. would make for some impressive rates 

That’d be pretty sweet there actually 

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

.40 here ? Lol

I’ll definitely take .3 IMBY

[dendrite]

RGEM has been slightly edging north the past few runs, but it hasn’t budged much.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Icon meh for SNE might have to bump down from 2 to 4 to 1  to 3 

Hasn’t this always kind of been a 1”-3” deal in SNE? Can’t let one or two robust runs snow goggle us. 

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hasn’t this always kind of been a 1”-3” deal in SNE? Can’t let one or two robust runs snow goggle us. 

even that is pushing it. C-2" at best always seemed about right. we'll see

[Sey-Mour Snow]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

RGEM has been slightly edging north the past few runs, but it hasn’t budged much.

It’s getting a clue slowly 

[CoastalWx]

We bang gfs