Feb 10-11 Mid Week Minor Event - Ride the hot hand?

[SJonesWX]

11 hours ago, dendrite said:

I had birch seeds blow onto my fresh snow…need to cover that up.

i had oak and beech leaves blowing around yesterday. now the leaves are stuck in the deer tracks and snowmobile tracks. need to cover up that mess

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

CMC models are on an island

GYX map looks like the 00z/10 HREF map.

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That was reverse psychology. I remember that well 

At any rate . So you’ve got 1” or less for CT. 

For you? Nah. 1-2”…maybe a lucky 3”

[CoastalWx]

There’s actually a little MU CAPE pushing into NYC area this evening. I think that’s one factor boosting the precip in an otherwise mundane setup for SNE.

[Go Kart Mozart]

I may be having radar hallucinations, but does it seem like RGEM is doing much better than the others at this point?

[moneypitmike]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GYX map looks like the 00z/10 HREF map.

Think they’re right?  Id love s snow day.  

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Think they’re right?  Id love s snow day.  

I know they like to use them and the NBM, So if those are right, Yes.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I know it was just a coating/dusting this morning, but what a disaster on the roads on my drive to work.  State highway in Gardner iced up, as was Rte 2

[Ginx snewx]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s been going a little wild lately. Happens sometimes. 

You mean absolutely nailed the pattern and the last  4 storms that kind of wild.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You mean absolutely nailed the pattern and the last  4 storms that kind of wild.

No idea what you mean. Lol

[CoastalWx]

HRRR juices Ray to SNH but went a little flaccid SoP. Sort of makes sense.

[dendrite]

Could be some ptype issues in the bottom half of CT too. Kinda on the edge, but if it gets convective as the front approaches it could be one of those graupel/snow pellet to snow before ending deals.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Could be some ptype issues in the bottom half of CT too. Kinda on the edge, but if it gets convective as the front approaches it could be one of those graupel/snow pellet to snow before ending deals.

Winners are ones to get both WAA and clipped by the convective looking band.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Winners are ones to get both WAA and clipped by the convective looking band.

Hi

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I know it was just a coating/dusting this morning, but what a disaster on the roads on my drive to work.  State highway in Gardner iced up, as was Rte 2

Doesn’t take much to cause big problems…that sucks. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Winners are ones to get both WAA and clipped by the convective looking band.

There’s a sideswiping H7 dryslot behind it too…may be helping with the forcing 

[WinterWolf]

40 minutes ago, dendrite said:

For you? Nah. 1-2”…maybe a lucky 3”

In his defense…that post you bumped was before it nailed the little event on that night of Wednesday the 21st, before the big one on Sunday the 25th. So I think he’s going off of that performance where the RGEM did quite well.  Or maybe I’m mistaken too? 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hi

Hello? Is it me you’re looking for?

[Chrisrotary12]

Expecting a nice refresher tonight. 2-3”. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

In his defense…that post you bumped was before it nailed the little event on that night of Wednesday the 21st, before the big one on Sunday the 25th. So I think he’s going off of that performance where the RGEM did quite well.  Or maybe I’m mistaken too? 

Yeah idk…no need to overthink it. A model being on its own this close in usually doesn’t cause you to exude confidence in it. I was just using his own words against him. It’s pretty easy to find him contradicting himself.

[Damage In Tolland]

HRRR had 1” or so for that Jan 21 event in CT that we had 4” from . I remember the southern CT posters weren’t expecting more than a dusting 

[dendrite]

Good luck expecting every event to bust positive. Like Scoot said…hope to get a little from the initial arm of WAA and then go to town briefly with the line dropping SE to finish.

[weatherwiz]

HRRR hints at some lighting possible with that convective stuff moving across southern CT tonight 

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS has that weird little slot of lighter precip.  It has done that several runs

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Good luck expecting every event to bust positive. Like Scoot said…hope to get a little from the initial arm of WAA and then go to town briefly with the line dropping SE to finish.

1-3" seems likely for many in SNE.  Maybe someone south of the NH border has things stack to 4" but I wouldn't forecast that.  Chicken coops look to do well

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

GFS has that weird little slot of lighter precip.  It has done that several runs

I think it’s juicing up for SE MA late as the front picks up a little more moisture off the Atlantic before pushing through. So maybe more of a SE MA enhancement than an interior MA dry sliver?

Not saying it’s correct…just guessing what it’s doing.

[ineedsnow]

12z NAM kind of meh except around the pike region

[SouthCoastMA]

NAM looks awful

[CoastalWx]

Models shitting themselves with this one.

[dendrite]

3k definitely looking convective along the cold front in SNE. Maybe in and out in 1-2hrs?