Feb 10-11 Mid Week Minor Event - Ride the hot hand?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Seems likely! JP Ray to Scooter 4 to 6

Could be . Just keep stacking the pack either way 

[The 4 Seasons]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM was the first to really pick up on the WAA snows in this one just as it was the first (and most consistent) in showing the north shore jackpot in Saturday's event. I've been pretty impressed with the RGEM performance this winter....lets see if it can be correct here as well. Doesn't mean no hiccups (I think that stripe of warning snowfall jusyt N of the merritt was prob a hiccup on 12z run, but otherwise it's been liking the general WAA enhancement after that initial thin band....and other model guidance has slowly caught on except for the stubborn Euro)

I thought it did absolutely fantastic the Jan 18-19th system it was very consistent with it from the start when most of the major models had it OTS or clipping the SE coast. 

I was praising it that storm calling it the RGEM storm when most where focusing on a win for the AIs, which was true but i think they overshadowed the RGEMs performance.

its been doing great overall this winter imo and vastly superior to other hi res guidance like the NAM

[ORH_wxman]

GFS juicing up a bit too at 18z....Really likes Ray's area up into SE NH, but it got better for all of SNE vs 12z. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Let’s snow

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM was the first to really pick up on the WAA snows in this one just as it was the first (and most consistent) in showing the north shore jackpot in Saturday's event. I've been pretty impressed with the RGEM performance this winter....lets see if it can be correct here as well. Doesn't mean no hiccups (I think that stripe of warning snowfall jusyt N of the merritt was prob a hiccup on 12z run, but otherwise it's been liking the general WAA enhancement after that initial thin band....and other model guidance has slowly caught on except for the stubborn Euro)

Far and away it’s been the best model this winter. It nailed that midweek snow event a few days prior to the big storm and several others in terms of placement

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Let’s snow

Told em 

[WxWatcher007]

Looks pretty good for most. Seems like a solid 1-3" down here. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Told em 

I did

[WinterWolf]

What a solid winter…this is excellent. 

[8611Blizz]

Many a good to great winter was built on the 2-6" clippahs

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I did

You did but reading between your posts were thinking north of 90

[DavisStraight]

9 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Many a good to great winter was built on the 2-6" clippahs

And throw in a Norlun or two.

[HoarfrostHubb]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You did but reading between your posts were thinking north of 90

Naw.  Models have been kind of all over SNE.  NNE and CNE should do better but I think most of Mass will do ok.  Not sure about SW CT.    

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Despite the low track, I think what’s helping is some of the dynamics. Strong warm air advection over this cold dome can sometimes offset what typically is not a good track for Snow.

Why i feel eastern areas will do pretty good.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro is acting like the Ukie. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Euro is acting like the Ukie. 

Slowly juicing up but seems lost.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Slowly juicing up but seems lost.

It’s struggled since early January around here.

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Why i feel eastern areas will do pretty good.

Have to watch the IVT again. Ray to Scooter 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Have to watch the IVT again. Ray to Scooter 

Looks more like Maine.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Euro is acting like the Ukie. 

Glue factory for it is really all you can do with that thing now. What a shame. 

[metagraphica]

Dr. No has become Dr. Slow............................................................to find the correct solution.

[ineedsnow]

2 to 4 looks good for here

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

2 to 4 looks good for here

That may be the entire region 

[Baroclinic Zone]

One wildcard is the potential for secondary SLP development along the south coast. This enhances the WAA bumping up QPF.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

One wildcard is the potential for secondary SLP development along the south coast. This enhances the WAA bumping up QPF.

Watch the IVT. My bet is Essex county to Weymouth 

[dendrite]

Euro was the correct model with pushing the core of the last arctic shot to our west. 

[ORH_wxman]

18z Euro is starting to blow up the WAA too, but it's doing it a little late. My guess is it will start doing it earlier and earlier with each cycle. It also had that little weenie band down in S CT like the RGEM had at 12z, but it wasn't nearly as wild with the qpf as that RGEM run. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Watch the IVT. My bet is Essex county to Weymouth 

It looks meager at best right now.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dendrite said:

Euro was the correct model with pushing the core of the last arctic shot to our west. 

Euro still seems to win on the synoptic features, but it's been struggling with smaller stuff and QPF placement on some of these events. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro still seems to win on the synoptic features, but it's been struggling with smaller stuff and QPF placement on some of these events. 

It was more a response to Wolfie’s 50th glue factory post since the start of the year.