Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event

[ineedsnow]

Lightly snowing in leominster.. tiny flakes

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr is nice. Congrats PYM county on 6-9”

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is nice. Congrats PYM county on 6-9”

Ya we take!! also looks good here

[Typhoon Tip]

00z left ..06z right. Euro

I mentioned this yesterday that there's a bit of a sneaky norlan look to this.  Certainly an IVT of some sort.   If the former turns out true and verifying, it is less likely the models will have nailed precisely where  the "unscheduled" snow fall rates set up... 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

12z HRRR even brings a little love up this way. Hope it verifies. 

[CoastalWx]

Some light OE with sun here now.

[ScituateWX]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is nice. Congrats PYM county on 6-9”

Sign me up!

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya we take!! also looks good here

Sure does !

[George001]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Either way, it’s not here. Can barely contain my excitement for a half inch of wild blown snow and 10 tons of salt on the road 

Yeah this looks like more of a norlun event than a widespread plowable snow. I’m not expecting much from this, someone could end up with a surprise but I would think it’s a small area.

[CoastalWx]

12z models look good. Congrats cstl Essex county I think. 

[ariof]

-SN in Cambridge/Boston out the window (office in Kendall Sq).

[dendrite]

42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

00z left ..06z right. Euro

I mentioned this yesterday that there's a bit of a sneaky norlan look to this.  Certainly an IVT of some sort.   If the former turns out true and verifying, it is less likely the models will have nailed precisely where  the "unscheduled" snow fall rates set up... 

Yeah I think that’s been modeled for awhile. It’s feeling the tug from that H5 low.

We get a little meso high over PWM to start and then a lobe from that PV starts digging S of LI and seems to really help back the flow over ENE as we get sfc pressure falls near the BM. I think that’s why we’ve seen a trend on that fropa being delayed Saturday and instead enhanced precip along that slowing sfc convergence zone (inv trough). 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah this looks like more of a norlun event than a widespread plowable snow. I’m not expecting much from this, someone could end up with a surprise but I would think it’s a small area.

Agreed. I think many who don’t end up in the Norlun are going to be disappointed. And good look pinning down exactly where it will set up.

[Kitz Craver]

Central CT subsidence west of the IVT

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Agreed. I think many who don’t end up in the Norlun are going to be disappointed. And good look pinning down exactly where it will set up.

Most will get 1-3 outside of it. Even Kevin’s 2-4 seems reasonable. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I think that’s been modeled for awhile. It’s feeling the tug from that H5 low.

We get a little meso high over PWM to start and then a lobe from that PV starts digging S of LI and seems to really help back the flow over ENE as we get sfc pressure falls near the BM. I think that’s why we’ve seen a trend on that fropa being delayed Saturday and instead enhanced precip along that slowing sfc convergence zone (inv trough). 

Agreed.  I don't believe the front really gets E of that trough axis... I think it kind of slows as it incurs on that thing's axis; then it collapses thru after the fact.  

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Most will get 1-3 outside of it. Even Kevin’s 2-4 seems reasonable. 

Yeah there’s general lift with the height falls and LL convergence does migrate across the region but where it slows down or temporarily stalls is where the jackpot will be. But I think almost everyone gets 1-2” minimum.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Most will get 1-3 outside of it. Even Kevin’s 2-4 seems reasonable. 

What if I had said 3-6?

[ORH_wxman]

3k NAM gives BVY and Manchester-by-the-sea like 12-15”. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What if I had said 3-6?

Too much 

[Damage In Tolland]

3k NAM shifted the NOR west a bit 

[HoarfrostHubb]

26 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah this looks like more of a norlun event than a widespread plowable snow. I’m not expecting much from this, someone could end up with a surprise but I would think it’s a small area.

Considering my town plows at 0.5" ...   

Seriously though, a general 1-3" should be what most people get.  Some lucky few will pick up a couple more

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Agreed. I think many who don’t end up in the Norlun are going to be disappointed. And good look pinning down exactly where it will set up.

Nobody would ever think you’d feel any other way. A life:outlook of utter disappointment constantly for TBlizz. 

[Modfan2]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3k NAM shifted the NOR west a bit 

Looking like elevation event in our area judging by those totals

[dendrite]

Pushing 200 joules of SBCAPE just offshore with big low/mid level omega in the DGZ.

[Layman]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pushing 200 joules of SBCAPE just offshore with big low/mid level omega in the DGZ.

I asked Chat GPT to give me a hand with this one - how do you think it did?

"There’s a little bit of instability offshore, but strong upward motion in the part of the atmosphere where snow forms, which means good potential for precipitation (especially snow) even though the overall energy isn’t very high."

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nobody would ever think you’d feel any other way. A life:outlook of utter disappointment constantly for TBlizz. 

Expect a couple of inches and no one will be dissapointed. It's on a weekend...bring the refresher IMO.

[Torch Tiger]

highway crews dropping tons of salt and spray here lol. what a waste

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Layman said:

I asked Chat GPT to give me a hand with this one - how do you think it did?

"There’s a little bit of instability offshore, but strong upward motion in the part of the atmosphere where snow forms, which means good potential for precipitation (especially snow) even though the overall energy isn’t very high."

We’re not trying to pop supercells in June here. That’s pretty unstable for snowfall.

[NeonPeon]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3k NAM shifted the NOR west a bit 

Narragansett Bay snow hole accurately modeled... Lock it in.