Is we back? February discussion thread

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Snowpack retention has been excellent except for the warmup in January.

Under the radar aspect about that warm up in January.

I argue it was not "thermodynamic" in character - in other words, dry air warm up.  It's not the same beast as other.

The measly 3" of white stone snow pack was incredibly resistant.  We really only went down to bare ground in this part of the interior ... not until the last day or two of that span.  Otherwise, a lot of 46 F highs over that apparently impervious to melt.   

It matters meteorologically because warmth in the atmosphere is both kinetic and also water vapor. But a dryer air mass will withstand just temperature more so than when it is accompanied by a DP that is also above freezing.     

[MJO812]

This month has sucked after a promising December and January.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This month has sucked after a promising December and January.

Good thing there’s almost 3 more weeks to go….

[dendrite]

GWDLINYC

[HIPPYVALLEY]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah it’s too cutoff otherwise and just happily chugs east.

I still love what the gfs did with it.

WTF is that?  I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a storm move that way.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

WTF is that?  I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a storm move that way.

I've seen some tropical cyclones due that post landfall...bout it.

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Everyone is dropping their pants to this winter, but if you take the snow goggles off, it’s surprising we only had one good storm and that took a gulf low ramming into an arctic dome. Think about that for a second. 

Exactly how many 12 inch plus storms do you think we have on an annual basis 

[40/70 Benchmark]

No was that s stream is getting up here on the GFS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Exactly how many 12 inch plus storms do you think we have on an annual basis 

You'd hope for more than 1 warning event, though.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Exactly how many 12 inch plus storms do you think we have on an annual basis 

The average of those are based on good patterns and bad patterns. We had a pretty good pattern, but we couldn’t buy a coastal which to me would be surprising if you told me that five months ago.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The average of those are based on good patterns and bad patterns. We had a pretty good pattern, but we couldn’t buy a coastal which to me would be surprising if you told me that five months ago.

I'm really not surprised given the MJO....SWFE dearth I am.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm really not surprised given the MJO....SWFE death I am.

Yeah that too. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The average of those are based on good patterns and bad patterns. We had a pretty good pattern, but we couldn’t buy a coastal which to me would be surprising if you told me that five months ago.

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm really not surprised given the MJO....SWFE death I am.

Patience grasshoppers 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm really not surprised given the MJO....SWFE death I am.

I’d still think this longwave look should’ve produced at least one or two solid coastals. Only fly in the ointment is you can see the western ridge getting sliced off a bit in Canada, we know at least a couple systems failed on us because we couldn’t quite amplify it enough out west. But even with that showing up minorly in the mean, it’s still surprising we didn’t pop at least a miller B or two.  
 

[Chrisrotary12]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

35°? ASH runs a couple warm too.

I don’t have time for facts. Was just guessing. Lol

[SnoSki14]

Bone dry pattern continues. Not even rain either, just dry. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d still think this longwave look should’ve produced at least one or two solid coastals. Only fly in the ointment is you can see the western ridge getting sliced off a bit in Canada, we know at least a couple systems failed on us because we couldn’t quite amplify it enough out west. But even with that showing up minorly in the mean, it’s still surprising we didn’t pop at least a miller B or two.  
 

See that’s telling right there. Because you’re right and it kind of validates my thinking too about coastals,  but we’ve also commented on that stupid trough backing its ass up south of Alaska screwing things up too. That’s definitely porked us.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

See that’s telling right there. Because you’re right and it kind of validates my thinking too about coastals,  but we’ve also commented on that stupid trough backing its ass up south of Alaska screwing things up too. That’s definitely porked us.

Potential no?

[WinterWolf]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You'd hope for more than 1 warning event, though.

Had two here…12/26/25. But ya otherwise. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Potential no?

Verbatim that shortwave NW of Buffalo is gonna kick it out. Need that southwest. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Had two here…12/26/25. But ya otherwise. 

Yes, I'm aware 12/26 crushed you.

[NoCORH4L]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Bone dry pattern continues. Not even rain either, just dry. 

@Damage In Tollanddo you think with this continued stein, it could set us up with a nice spring inferno potential? Those super dry, sunny, and windy April days can be dangerous. 

[SouthCoastMA]

I'd take whatever the CMC is advertising for Saturday:

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I'd take whatever the CMC is advertising for Saturday:

Lol now it’s back to Saturday? 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

@Damage In Tollanddo you think with this continued stein, it could set us up with a nice spring inferno potential? Those super dry, sunny, and windy April days can be dangerous. 

I don’t think it’s been Stein. It’s snowed a lot in the last 50 days . There’s probably 2” of liquid in the pack with more coming tonight . 
 

Im worried about a nasty cold late spring because of the frozen Great Lakes and frigid SST’s

[dendrite]

That’s just a weenie piece of the PV spinning down our way. A quick in and out cold shot. 

[dendrite]

Probably some good SHSN with it though with how low those thicknesses are. Upper level temps tank in NNE. 

[EastonSN+]

If this happens I am done lol. WOR nightmare.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Probably some good SHSN with it though with how low those thicknesses are. Upper level temps tank in NNE. 

Ginx would love that.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

If this happens I am done lol. WOR nightmare.

That’s up to Sunday the 15th lol. That’s fine.