Is we back? February discussion thread

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

what a weenie Ukmet solution.. wasn’t even done yet lol

Now that would be the star of winter 26

[78Blizzard]

54 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

what a weenie Ukmet solution.. wasn’t even done yet lol

I'd hate to hang my hat on the Ukie, especially now since the Euro went east like the GFS.

[JKEisMan]

EPS and EPS-AI also shifted south and east, unfortunately. Still time for changes obviously, but not looking great at the moment.

[CoastalWx]

Good bye and good luck. 

[CoastalWx]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Awful model 

Yeah the Ukie is.

[UnitedWx]

Watching models this season is like watching Angel Hernandez ump an MLB game

[CoastalWx]

I mean there is some spread north, but it has that oblong shape meaning it’s probably more a N-S elongation or trough extension like euro op has. 

[ORH_wxman]

Skynets may have sniffed out this one not being amplified enough. 

[dendrite]

6z gfs takes it to cuba and then the yucatan. lol

I can’t recall a model doing anything like that with an ULL before

[mahk_webstah]

I guess WPC will have to redo their overnight qpf maps which have 1+ for most of ne

[Damage In Tolland]

Lot of EPS hits 

[kdxken]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lot of EPS hits 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Regular EPS

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Loving the 60s/70s showing up on GFS.. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Regular EPS

Looks like a few good hits, but I wouldn’t call that “lots”

[Sey-Mour Snow]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lot of EPS hits 

10% of members with a plowable snow wouldn't call that a lot 

[Go Kart Mozart]

39 minutes ago, dendrite said:

6z gfs takes it to cuba and then the yucatan. lol

I can’t recall a model doing anything like that with an ULL before

It looks like a Cape scraper to me.  Cape Canaveral.

[George001]

The models were showing rain yesterday. I’d wait until they stabilize some before drawing conclusions rather than flip flopping with every run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Loving the 60s/70s showing up on GFS.. 

@WinterWolfThoughts? How does this fit the overall tenor of the season? Do we know?

[Kitz Craver]

A few more frames would suggest the 6z ICON won’t miss south if extrapolated 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

A few more frames would suggest the 6z ICON won’t miss south if extrapolated 

Winter is saved!

[tavwtby]

8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Interesting BTV tidbit if Wednesday doesn’t go above freezing… then you start to get into a solid streak.

In
Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees was
January 22nd; sub-freezing temperature streaks surpassing 21 days
are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening January-
February 2015 and only occurring 20 times going back across the last
141 winter seasons.

that was my last day above freezing as well, wonder how unusual it is for this much further south, got to be close to a record if not at least top 5... highest temp here in the last 30 days was 43.2 on 1/11... crazy impressive sustained cold. too bad it's been dry for most of it.

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like a few good hits, but I wouldn’t call that “lots”

Well more than Aifs 

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@WinterWolfThoughts? How does this fit the overall tenor of the season? Do we know?

GFS = Glue Factory System?

But kidding aside I think we all know that’s a pipedream in Feb…although you can’t rule out a semi warm day in there.

[NorEastermass128]

26 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Loving the 60s/70s showing up on GFS.. 

Feb vacation starts with skis and ends with bikinis at the beach?  Interesting…

[CoastalWx]

Some models almost look like overrunning after any moderation. We hit the snooze button for a time after tonight. Then we’ll see how it looks after Monday or so. 

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some models almost look like overrunning after any moderation. We hit the snooze button for a time after tonight. Then we’ll see how it looks after Monday or so. 

Giving up on Monday/Tuesday huh?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Giving up on Monday/Tuesday huh?

Pretty much. It’s just not a good setup. 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some models almost look like overrunning after any moderation. We hit the snooze button for a time after tonight. Then we’ll see how it looks after Monday or so. 

Hope so. IMBY if we have seen the last of the snow it would only be a C+ winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS = Glue Factory System?

But kidding aside I think we all know that’s a pipedream in Feb…although you can’t rule out a semi warm day in there.

It looks like the EURO is all N stream, while the s stream escapes waaaaaay OTS like a lot guidance right now. UK allows the S stream to come and phase with the N stream at the quiescently perfect time for NE. My guess is it ends up mainly N stream and another light to moderate ordeal.

It almost seems like the inverse western CONUS ridging this time since the ridge is more in plains. The UK allows the s stream to come up bc it doesn't dig as much since the western ridge erodes faster. The Euro buries it because it has a bit more ridging.