Is we back? February discussion thread

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s really pretty astounding that it’s been below freezing for so many weeks straight What a winter for pack fetish folks like me. Even before the big un , most of the time other than early Jan mild up and a little of Dec had snow OTG. This last storm even though it wasn’t paste had so much qpf that it doesn’t melt even in full sun . If the mid week storm can be paste or even get some ice into it, we will be locked in well into Morch this year 

It has been a great pack season thus far. Could have been epic if we scored last week. However, we still look to add to it with these next potentials, pretty awesome 

[Layman]

3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Yes, could not stand the constant sun and 70-80 weather in California!! lol.. I heard this winter has been like the good old days.. hopefully the next 10 years rock!! Will be Cambridge in temp housing then not sure.. 

Indeed! But...

There was no white Christmas in Weymouth...

Everything sucks in Taunton...

Dozens of ice storms have been forecast in Tolland to no avail...

Methuen has had decent snows but the season is still only a C+....

Chickens are on the verge of freezing to death in central NH...

You'll be happy to know that things remain pretty normal in Stowe though 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s really pretty astounding that it’s been below freezing for so many weeks straight What a winter for pack fetish folks like me. Even before the big un , most of the time other than early Jan mild up and a little of Dec had snow OTG. This last storm even though it wasn’t paste had so much qpf that it doesn’t melt even in full sun . If the mid week storm can be paste or even get some ice into it, we will be locked in well into Morch this year 

Yea, looks certain to be my best winter since 2017-2018, final totals not withstanding.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, looks certain to be my best winter since 2017-2018, final totals not withstanding.

Think we’ve got a lot more snow to go 

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sorry Ray Not sure why this is hard to grasp for some. 

Reach around? 

[Typhoon Tip]

This 12z operational GFS ... very low continuity over the last several model cycles.  Out of nowhere, completely edits the cinema and goes from the left, the right from 00z to 12s.   I mean there's some recognizable features there, but they are hugely reposition(ing) and changing amplitude ..etc... We are have bad deterministic value for the time being...  

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Think we’ve got a lot more snow to go 

Agree.....should be at least another 20".

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This 12z operational GFS ...0 continuity over the last several model cycles.  Out of nowhere, completely edits the cinema and goes from the left, the right from 00z to 12s.   I mean there's some recognizable features there, but they are hugely reposition(ing) and changing amplitude ..etc... We are have bad deterministic value for the time being...  

Probably not great news considering GFS has been most consistent with a storm.

[CoastalWx]

The next 7-10 days seems all over the place. 

[ma blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s really pretty astounding that it’s been below freezing for so many weeks straight What a winter for pack fetish folks like me. Even before the big un , most of the time other than early Jan mild up and a little of Dec had snow OTG. This last storm even though it wasn’t paste had so much qpf that it doesn’t melt even in full sun . If the mid week storm can be paste or even get some ice into it, we will be locked in well into Morch this year 

yeah would love to see a big mixed precip event to really lock in the pack. Imagine a VD '07 type sleet storm on top of this pack? Would take til April to fully melt  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Not that continuity is typically better at 200 hrs. 

Ha!
Models shouldn’t be judged really for that range. just have to wait 

[SouthCoastMA]

12z GFS looks like the AI models from 12z yesterday for 2/11. Though like others said, they are all over the place and not worth putting much stock into at this range. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

12z GFS looks like the AI models from 12z yesterday for 2/11. Though like others said, they are all over the place and not worth putting much stock into at this range. 

So it sucks.

At least we have a fledgling consensus. 

[Ginx snewx]

Orh's 49.9 YTD is the 20th snowiest winter out of 78 and the 16th coldest.  75% of winters have been worse. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Let's just imagine for a sec the op GFS is onto something with the emphasis shifting from later on the 14th/15th, to an early amplification by the 13th.  That 500mb vortex does actually capture this guys, and turns into a white 'cane for D.E.M.

That's in the stone's through for us from 192 hours...  just sayn'

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Orh's 49.9 YTD is the 20th snowiest winter out of 78 and the 16th coldest.  75% of winters have been worse. 

Now I feel better.

Thanks. JK

[Bostonseminole]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

12z GFS looks like the AI models from 12z yesterday for 2/11. Though like others said, they are all over the place and not worth putting much stock into at this range. 

Dammit it does not help with my planning, I need >75% 200hr plus

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Let's just imagine for a sec the op GFS is onto something with the emphasis shifting from later on the 14th/15th, to an early amplification by the 13th.  That 500mb vortex does actually capture this guys, and turns into a white 'cane for D.E.M.

That's in the stone's through for us from 192 hours...  just sayn'

I was about to say, at least it manages to phase in time for the Maritimes again despite the fast flow.

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So it sucks.

At least we have a fledgling consensus. 

Most likely, quick hitter if anything. More resemblance to the EUROAI, though Ensembles haven't really inspired confidence in this one yet, and may never. 

Yesterday's 12z AIGFS likely isn't walking through that door again. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Most likely, quick hitter if anything. More resemblance to the EUROAI, though Ensembles haven't really inspired confidence in this one yet, and may never. 

Yesterday's 12z AIGFS likely isn't walking through that door again. 

What about the euro.

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Now I feel better.

Thanks. JK

2011-12 was #1 here as of 10/31

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was about to say, at least it manages to phase in time for the Maritimes again despite the fast flow.

yeah, that's true.  fast/speed is  you know this is a good use case to help demo for whom ever needs it, how speed gets in the way.  you can get a sense of that by looping how this SPV zooms in - that's a lot of mass to be moving that fast se, and so it then low captures ... after which it foists it back NW. 

It's like grabbing a running back from the back of their jersey for the tackle.  That's the deep layer vortex actually outpacing the lower levels. 

I tell you what tho.  Even with this whole mess trying to work out in a fast field, if the western heights were to amp a little that might offset that tendency enough for this to become a player. 

Not trying to hot dose anyone's dopa for the day just sayn what needs to go right.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

What about the euro.

The euro is on the naughty list. 

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

yeah would love to see a big mixed precip event to really lock in the pack. Imagine a VD '07 type sleet storm on top of this pack? Would take til April to fully melt  

 

I’d actually welcome a few inches of sleet. 
I saw videos of Little Rock earlier this week and there still was sleet on the ground in places there. They set their longest continuous days in a row of snowcover . I think it was 8 days lol. Sleet just first melt 

[SouthCoastMA]

The CMC says, enjoy Saturday if you are in SNE.  Warm for 2/11 and 2/14

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What about the euro.

Wasn’t the euro op showing the bomb yesterday 12z?

[ariof]

DEM but then it occludes over the CAR CWA and sends a ton of moisture down the St Lawrence Valley that gets lifted up over the mountains. That's the kind of Green Mountain Special where Jay gets 4' but the Dacks and Whites would get some as well. The Mansfield snow take would get a nice bump, too.

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Let's just imagine for a sec the op GFS is onto something with the emphasis shifting from later on the 14th/15th, to an early amplification by the 13th.  That 500mb vortex does actually capture this guys, and turns into a white 'cane for D.E.M.

That's in the stone's through for us from 192 hours...  just sayn'

 

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Wasn’t the euro op showing the bomb yesterday 12z?

Yes. Everything from beyond D6 right now is a disaster on model guidance. They are flip flopping all over the place. My gut still says hedge a bit colder given the NAO block (and the tendency for guidance to be hedging colder as we get closer)…but the pacific is becoming unfavorable so it’s a battle. 

[tamarack]

Solid winter so far, a solid B- which would be the best since 2018-19.  Sustained cold and pack plus the astronomical ratio that turned an 8-10" storm to nearly 20".  Snowfall YTD is 115% of average, but GYX's 7-day offers only a trace for Saturday and nothing beyond.  Maybe the mid-month mild-up can bring 'something' - haven't have a cutter since before Christmas.

[mahk_webstah]

Euro AI just out and I think the 10th and 11th look better and interesting. And then a few days later the transfer to the coast happens on the low moves just south of Long Island towards the east. The next one for the 18th and 19th still looks like a cutter with a strong primary, but there is a surface reflection clearer now than it was yesterday on the coast. At least that’s how I interpreted it.