Is we back? February discussion thread

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well, this is just fine and dandy

It was 10 below zero this morning here… presently 4

And the power blinks out. 

This house cannot be heated without electricity.  Electricity is needed to run the mini split/heat compressor system. Thankfully, it’s very small power usage… Unfortunately, it is not a zero power usage.

So the temperature is already dropped easily 10° here in this first hour of this  just got a text from the neighbors that apparently this is town wide; so the entire town of Ayer Massachusetts is in the dark on one of the if not the coldest mornings of the winter. 

I think, after careful consideration, I’ve come to the conclusion that NGRID’s a piece of shit.  This is like the fourth time I’ve awoken in the morning to find my alarm clock light blinking… Like who uses an alarm clock anymore, right ha ha ha, but anyway that signifies that the power has gone out overnight.  For whatever random reason it’s not really conveyed very well anyway and I’m sure if it’s not very honest anyway.  They sent you a text message, “we are aware of your outage at the given address and we’re working to resolve the matter as quickly as possible… “. In the end, I just see that as a bunch of PR bullshit   you cannot have power going out save for very rare circumstances and definitely not when it’s 5° up or down from zero Fahrenheit outside.  

so I guess I’ll set the faucets to drip and wait it out and should my pipes somehow freeze or damage occurred to this house ngrids going to get a nice fat lawsuit. 

Can you head to Ray’s for warmth ?

[HoarfrostHubb]

A number of years ago (similar cold morning) I heard a bang from outside and our power went out.   I went out with the dog to see what happened.   There was a newly cooked squirrel at the bottom of a pole. The crew restored power in an hour or so (just had to flip a big breaker switch thing).  The squirrel stayed there for a couple of days before something grabbed a frozen meal

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m guessing a car hit a pole or something.  Our son’s place is affected by the same outage.  Expected restoration time is 11AM

… A single pole wouldn’t take out a whole town?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can you head to Ray’s for warmth ?

Nape massage?

[cleetussnow]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well, this is just fine and dandy

It was 10 below zero this morning here… presently 4

And the power blinks out. 

This house cannot be heated without electricity.  Electricity is needed to run the mini split/heat compressor system. Thankfully, it’s very small power usage… Unfortunately, it is not a zero power usage.

So the temperature is already dropped easily 10° here in this first hour of this  just got a text from the neighbors that apparently this is town wide; so the entire town of Ayer Massachusetts is in the dark on one of the if not the coldest mornings of the winter. 

I think, after careful consideration, I’ve come to the conclusion that NGRID’s a piece of shit.  This is like the fourth time I’ve awoken in the morning to find my alarm clock light blinking… Like who uses an alarm clock anymore, right ha ha ha, but anyway that signifies that the power has gone out overnight.  For whatever random reason it’s not really conveyed very well anyway and I’m sure if it’s not very honest anyway.  They sent you a text message, “we are aware of your outage at the given address and we’re working to resolve the matter as quickly as possible… “. In the end, I just see that as a bunch of PR bullshit   you cannot have power going out save for very rare circumstances and definitely not when it’s 5° up or down from zero Fahrenheit outside.  

so I guess I’ll set the faucets to drip and wait it out and should my pipes somehow freeze or damage occurred to this house ngrids going to get a nice fat lawsuit. 

Man thats terrible.  If this is common - it is here somewhat - go get a predator 5000 watt inverter generator at harbor freight if you can swing it.  Or even the smaller 3500 watt one.  It will bail you out of a critical situation.  

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

… A single pole wouldn’t take out a whole town?

Just depends on where it is in the system.  Sure it can. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nape massage?

I’m actually standing here with the sun shining through the south window on my upper torso and it’s remarkably warm

Yeah… I think it’s safe to say I’m pretty much done with this winter. Between coastal storms that have no excuse or explicit Bility and missing the region to unrelenting cold when the rest of the planet is still above normal… no thanks Although I guess we did have the one storm so it’s not a total waste of experience.   But anyway, I don’t think it’s worth it…

We’ll see if these phantom storms out there can finally penetrate through the ludicrous speed of the hemisphere and actually happen for a change. And I’m sure during the run up to each nobody will either see or admit that they’re seeing something having to do a climate change speeding up the hemisphere to the point where storm systems get disrupted by shear all the fucking time.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Just depends on where it is in the system.  Sure it can. 

Well, I’m thinking specifically our town… We have those cross country high tension, powerlines coming into here in a massive substation.  That’s what service is this town and in fact this region.

But it’s a moot point anyway because the outage map is not the whole town. It’s just my neighborhood and the neighborhood next to mine so the neighbor was wrong lol

The upside of that as it can’t take longer to return this or reset it

[dendrite]

It’s been pretty cold over the last week to 10 days, but it’s been a regular cold January up here. There’s just been long streaks of BN, AN, and BN again.

I think Jan will end up -2 to -3 up here and that’s with 91-20 normals. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

It’s affecting a lot of customers.  

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s been pretty cold over the last week to 10 days, but it’s been a regular cold January up here. There’s just been long streaks of BN, AN, and BN again.

I think Jan will end up -2 to -3 up here and that’s with 91-20 normals. 

Yeah in the age of Greta it’s cold. 50 years ago we yawn at this. 

[kdxken]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

… A single pole wouldn’t take out a whole town?

We're talking hubbardston here. They don't even salt the roads.

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully one of these systems can pop. Tough to really pin point at the moment so we wait a few days to see what modeling does. It looks like it may relax after the 10th or so, albeit still probably BN.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, kdxken said:

We're talking hubbardston here. They don't even salt the roads.

Did the internet make it there?

[WxWatcher007]

Lost power briefly down here too

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Did the internet make it there?

Dial-up.  If anyone has one of those AOL CDs with some minutes, send it my way

[ORH_wxman]

We haven’t really had those -25 or -30 departure type days thst really throw an exclamation point on a cold outbreak. It’s been a slow burn of -10 to -20 departure days during these cold streaks. 
 

Same exact thing can be said about that warm streak mid month…it was just a bunch of +10 to +15 days strung together so it never “felt” like we had a high end torch. We weren’t getting that signature +25 to +30 day or two at the height of it like we usually do. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah in the age of Greta it’s cold. 50 years ago we yawn at this. 

Yeah looks like CON will finish around -2.2F after factoring in an 18/-10 for today. That equates to a mean of 20.3° which is sorta run of the mill for this stretch below

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah in the age of Greta it’s cold. 50 years ago we yawn at this. 

Lets not get Wolfie started today…yesterday was brutal.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We haven’t really had those -25 or -30 departure type days thst really throw an exclamation point on a cold outbreak. It’s been a slow burn of -10 to -20 departure days during these cold streaks. 
 

Same exact thing can be said about that warm streak mid month…it was just a bunch of +10 to +15 days strung together so it never “felt” like we had a high end torch. We weren’t getting that signature +25 to +30 day or two at the height of it like we usually do. 

Probably the most important distinction is that we are cold relative to the rest of the planet. The last I saw one of those pretty colorized global representation of temperature anomalies there were two places on the planet, the entire planet, where negative anomalies had been cumulatively observed. It was western southern Canada north eastern US and then someplace over in near the Urals. That might’ve been December or November or something. But anyway, I’d be curious to find out what the status of that ongoing monitoring is now.
One thing that’s interesting is that the Arctic domain is exceptionally above normal right now. Exceptionally above normal in the arctic domain in the middle of the northern hemisphere winter will still store meat indefinitely… It’s the middle latitudes around the hemisphere are actually pulling a global means down in the last 30 days so I think the colorized distribution of anomaly probably has changed some. 

Either way the bottom line,  it’s chilly outside. 

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That clipper on Friday is one to watch 

I hope you got your mojo back for this next one. You flunked out on this last one. 

[dendrite]

Also the deepest of the deep rad pits will be more anomalously cold this month too. Congrats to the HADS sites along the rivers and the OWD ASOS mounted in the swamp.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah….We can’t match the obscenity of the mid-50s through late 70s….but this is pretty solid for post-1980…think this is the 9th coldest start to winter for ORH since then and it should continue to climb the rankings if the models have any idea over the next couple weeks. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah….We can’t match the obscenity of the mid-50s through late 70s….but this is pretty solid for post-1980…think this is the 9th coldest start to winter for ORH since then and it should continue to climb the rankings if the models have any idea over the next couple weeks. 

0ZGFS operational is pretty epic with a couple of different plume cycles going on through Southern Canada saw sub 500 thickness over sprawling areas I think twice during the cinemas of those runs… 0Z and 06Z

[Typhoon Tip]

I did catch the indices before the power went out… yes, I could do it from my phone too, but I just prefer not to cause this interface sucks for weather charting 

Anyway… It looks like there’s one last signal on this current PNA cycle that would be around the sixth seventh and eighth. But like this last one, the models are having trouble really grabbing a hold of a system in that period there’s been hints at it – where have we seen that before?  This current one that we’re missing tomorrow that hinted for a while and then suddenly burst onto the stage at five or six days ahead, but then we watched as inch by inch lost to us south.   I’m just not sure we’re not gonna run into the same issues with that thing going on towards that end of that first week.  
Beyond that it looks like we have a tendency for higher latitude blocking, and that’s really almost entirely negative AO driven.  The EPO is actually not that negative during that period and the north Atlantic isolation is unclear with occasional pulsations of the models that don’t have continuity.  I think what’s happening is that the Arctic oscillation is very negative and it’s overlapping these other domain spaces, but nevertheless, we’ve clearly established a conveyor into North American continent.  My experience over the decades is that once you establish these connective  conveyors they tend to last.  
So at a sort of conceptual level were left with a cold mid latitude continent with the near neutral PNA as we head into mid February   
Yeah, that’s not exactly storm unfriendly  but good luck with deterministic success  probably a lot of storm maturation occurring at less than four day prediction windows

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I hope you got your mojo back for this next one. You flunked out on this last one. 

Ditty is like the Adam Dunn of weenie forecasting. Bats .200 with a hefty amount of strikeouts but when he connects, it’s a loud homer.

[Ginx snewx]

You guys talking Greta while the south breaks all time 8h and 5h records is pretty hilarious. 

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I hope you got your mojo back for this next one. You flunked out on this last one. 

Everyone got fooled by this one. I just held on longer 

[Layman]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everyone got fooled by this one. I just held on longer 

Yep, especially when you were posting about Steve's D or whatever it was, we knew you had an iron grip on it.  

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Layman said:

Yep, especially when you were posting about Steve's D or whatever it was, we knew you had an iron grip on it.  

I have trouble giving snow up . It’s a problem