The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[bncho]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Eh.  That’s extreme. If 0z showed a blizzard I think we would all stand at attention.  

It was poorly communicated hyperbole, but you get my point, it probably isn't going to happen unless we get 4 consecutive substantial positive changes, whether that is in regards to where the ULL digs, how quickly it tilts negative, etc.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

They need something after the Belichick snub lol

That was a Vegas thing 100% since they now do odds on HOF first ballots. He had the best odds to get it. The fix was in.

[rjvanals]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS; 20-30% make it to DC

Yeah we mostly get scraped and no flush hits w low end warning being our upside 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS; 20-30% make it to DC

What was the percentage at 12z

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Hopefully we dont have to worry about it next winter. 

No our biggest issue next year is if it’s an east based Nino with a hostile QBO. Not all Ninos are snowy. Just the ones that are can be VERY snowy. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, bncho said:

It was poorly communicated hyperbole, but you get my point, it probably isn't going to happen unless we get 4 consecutive substantial positive changes, whether that is in regards to where the ULL digs, how quickly it tilts negative, etc.

Its okay, some storms aren't meant to be. This storm will probably be one of them. Its not its fault or anything but was just the hand the atmosphere dealt us. That said, I hope we see a brilliant reverse model bust to "balance out" our last storm, or last February, but we aren't owed it. 

[EHoffman]

Just now, BristowWx said:

What was the percentage at 12z

It was 2 members aka 4%

[clskinsfan]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

No our biggest issue next year is if it’s an east based Nino with a hostile QBO. Not all Ninos are snowy. Just the ones that are can be VERY snowy. 

I agree. But this 7 year run has been pretty close to abysmal. Time to reshuffle the deck. 

[CAPE]

Pretty interesting AFD from Mt Holly-

Forecast models continue to forecast cyclogensis occurring beginning
Saturday off the southeast coast with rapidly deepening low pressure
depicted to then move north and east Saturday night through Sunday.
This will occur due to a potent upper level disturbance pivoting
around the base of the long wave trough over the east interacting
with the strong baroclinic zone along the coast.

In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this hinges on the
exact track the storm takes which still remains uncertain at
this time. Generally speaking, the latest 12z deterministic
guidance has our forecast area near the N/W fringe of the
storm`s precip shield. The GFS has shifted slightly farther S/E
with the storm track and precip shield compared to the 0z run
while the ECMWF has shifted a bit west. There also continues to
be spread among the ensembles. One thing that`s interesting to
note though is that the RGEM (the Canadian model) appears to be
supporting a track near or a bit west of the model consensus
based on its placement of upper level features at the end of
its run at 84 hours out (7PM Saturday evening). This model
generally does very well with these types of large scale winter
systems.

Potential storm impacts include not just heavy precipitation but
also strong winds and coastal flooding as the storm will have a
tight pressure gradient with a very strong wind field. Timing wise,
the earliest this would arrive is late day Saturday with the brunt
of the storm occuring Saturday night into Sunday if we get it. Given
the very cold temperatures in place both at the surface and aloft,
all snow is strongly favored in terms of precip type.

The latest NBM probabilistic data has trended back up a bit. For
snow amounts greater than 2 inches (plowable), the range is from
around 60-70 percent near the coast to 40-50 percent near the I-95
corridor with lower probabilities N/W of the urban corridor. For 6+
inches, these probs are around 30-40 percent near I-95 up to 50-60
percent near the coast.

[osfan24]

Gonna need another massive leap at 0z. We just have no time left and need massive changes. It’s just a tease. Enough to smoke Boston and maybe NYC and the coast.

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

What was the percentage at 12z

Quick count about 18%.

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No our biggest issue next year is if it’s an east based Nino with a hostile QBO. Not all Ninos are snowy. Just the ones that are can be VERY snowy. 

Wouldn’t it would be more likely to get a west-based Nino instead of an east-based one partially due to the fact of this year’s east-based Nina?

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

It was 2 members aka 4%

Huh.  Ok

 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

I agree. But this 7 year run has been pretty close to abysmal. Time to reshuffle the deck. 

Im not throwing in the towel on this year her. The pattern is very good in terms of being right for any amplification to be a snow threat. We just need something to happen. The last wave was a pretty good hit. This next one is so damn close but looks to be a miss. This pattern isn’t breaking down and is reloading actually. We have at least 3 more weeks and maybe more if guidance is right. We juts need 1-2 more hits. It can happen. 
 

After this we need a -AO Nino basically. What stacks the deck most would be to time up a west based Nino with a favorable solar and QBO. Problem is next year is likely to have unfavorable solar and QBO and early signs are east based. So…

[winter_warlock]

16 minutes ago, bncho said:

18z EPS way west

How far west compared to 12 z?

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Quick count about 18%.

4% sounded better.  But ok

[Paleocene]

Ok I'm going full   but what in the fresh hell is going on with the LP that comes north out of Cuba and shows up on EPS/GFES. It's part of the double-barrel low situation that shows up on both.  

[mitchnick]

18z GEM. Top link to 500mb at 84hrs and bottom is precip same time. Slight improvement but hard to say where it would go from there. Other parameters are found in the drop down to the right of rhe word MAP.

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=cmc_gdps&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=084

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&stn=PT&hh=084&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

[midatlanticweather]

I swear it is an 18z trick. I have seen this movie. Happy hour, boy meets girl. They hit it off. Go home and then find out she was a liar. Go home all upset, the next day the boy thinks about her and checks with her to see if she would be willing to go to have drinks again at happy hour. Things seem to be clearing up when they meet again and he thinks maybe she lied for the wrong reasons. Then, boom, she slams the door in his face a little after midnight. 

 

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

4% sounded better.  But ok

Haha I was looking at AI EPS, my bad

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Ok I'm going full   but what in the fresh hell is going on with the LP that comes north out of Cuba and shows up on EPS/GFES. It's part of the double-barrel low situation that shows up on both.  

 That shows a lot of members tucked close to coast!!!

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EPS for one inch compared to 12Z

 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Im not throwing in the towel on this year her. The pattern is very good in terms of being right for any amplification to be a snow threat. We just need something to happen. The last wave was a pretty good hit. This next one is so damn close but looks to be a miss. This pattern isn’t breaking down and is reloading actually. We have at least 3 more weeks and maybe more if guidance is right. We juts need 1-2 more hits. It can happen. 

I agree, its not the pattern. We've simply gotten unlucky. If anything it is a testament to this pattern that we've managed to still get a significant snowstorm! I am excited to see where it goes but do you have any idea why we don't seem to have any upcoming waves after this one that are super obvious?

[mitchnick]

Another slight improvement, this time the Ukie ensembles, but far from a hit near either metro area.

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS for one inch compared to 12Z

All we need is this size shift for next 8 runs in a row and we have something

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS for one inch compared to 12Z

Definitely a shift. Nw!!

[DMAC98]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

No our biggest issue next year is if it’s an east based Nino with a hostile QBO. Not all Ninos are snowy. Just the ones that are can be VERY snowy. 

We basically saw an example of this with 2023-24, one of the strongest Niño events in recent history, but it was east-based and had rather iffy atmospheric coupling + a hostile Pacific SST configuration to boot (-PDO). It wasn't horrible, especially compared to the prior winter, but it was still underwhelming all things considered. Our snowiest years seem to come during moderate-ish west-based/modoki events. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I agree, its not the pattern. We've simply gotten unlucky. If anything it is a testament to this pattern that we've managed to still get a significant snowstorm! I am excited to see where it goes but do you have any idea why we don't seem to have any upcoming waves after this one that are super obvious?

The most obvious reason is the lack of STj which is Nina related. But why are there not even some reasonable decent northern stream waves?  I don’t know. Honestly 

the pattern is suppressed so much right now we could even work with some NS only wave at times but even they are weak sauce 

[Berlin1926]

Don't laugh.  I ask AI to evaluate these maps plus AFD from Wakefield and MC.

 

Surface low tracks: the ensembles are remarkably consistent

Across GEFS, EPS, and GEPS, the surface low at ~78–84 hrs is:

Well east of the Carolina coastline

Centered roughly east–southeast of Cape Hatteras

Deepening hard (tight isobars, strong gradient)

This is not noise anymore — this is ensemble convergence.

Key implication:

The storm is not trending inland.

It is not tucking under Virginia.

It is behaving like a classic Miller C / offshore bomb.

That matches:

Wakefield’s language (highest impacts coast, lower inland)

Morehead City’s confidence (ENC squarely in the core)

The Weather Risk video you transcribed (and honestly, he read this correctly)

2. The 500-mb pattern explains why Midlothian is struggling

Your last two panels (GEFS & EPS 500 mb heights/anomalies) are the smoking gun.

What we see:

A deep, vertically stacked closed low centered offshore

Strong negative height anomalies hugging the coast

A massive, locked-in Arctic high over the interior US

This matters because:

The upper low is not phasing over NC/VA

It pivots east, not north

Lift rotates around the offshore low instead of swinging inland

That means:

The deformation band (the real snow producer) is rotating around the coast, not expanding inland.

If that 500-mb low were 100–150 miles farther west, Richmond would be buried.

But it’s not. And the ensembles agree on that placement.

3. Precipitation fields: the inland cutoff is real

Look at your GEFS / GEPS accumulated precip panels:

Coastal plain: deep blues and greens (solid QPF)

I-95 corridor: sharp gradient

West of Richmond: rapidly falling totals

This is exactly the pattern where:

Coastal NC / Tidewater VA get crushed

Central VA sits near the western edge of the shield

Snowfall becomes rate-dependent and band-dependent

And that’s why your point forecast:

Mentions snow → mix → freezing rain

Never commits to high totals

Keeps PoPs high but totals modest

PoP answers “will something fall?”

Totals answer “will you be happy?”

Right now, the models say: yes to the first, shrug to the second.

4. Why Dinwiddie looked better than Midlothian (and why that hurts)

This part stings, but it’s important.

Dinwiddie:

Slightly farther south

Slightly closer to coastal moisture

Slightly colder profile longer

Midlothian:

Just north enough to flirt with dry slotting

Just inland enough to lose snow rates

Just close enough to the warm nose aloft to complicate p-type

That’s why your corrected forecast dropped from:

“plausible accumulation” → “1–3 inches possible” → “mixed bag”

You didn’t imagine it.

You crossed a real mesoscale boundary.

5. So… is Midlothian “lucky to get any snow”?

No — but you are on the wrong side of the ceiling.

Here’s the honest probability envelope right now:

≥0.5" snow: likely

1–3": plausible (especially Friday night / early Saturday)

4–6": requires a westward jog or stronger banding

6+": needs a fundamentally different storm (not supported by ensembles)

The key thing:

Nothing in these images shows a trend toward Midlothian improving.

The ensembles are stable, not chaotic.

Stability this far out is bad news for last-minute miracles.

6. Why snow lovers hate Miller C storms

This is the philosophical gut-punch.

Miller C storms:

Are meteorologically impressive

Produce insane winds and coastal snow

Look incredible on satellite

Punish inland gradient zones

They reward:

OBX

Tidewater

Eastern NC

They tease:

Richmond

Central VA

The Piedmont edge

You’re living that truth in real time.

Bottom line (said gently, but honestly)

You are not getting skunked.

You are also not getting a classic Richmond snowstorm.

What you are getting is:

A legit winter event

Cold enough for snow at times

Enough moisture for accumulation

But not enough overlap of lift + moisture + cold for a blockbuster

[winter_warlock]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z GEM. Top link to 500mb at 84hrs and bottom is precip same time. Slight improvement but hard to say where it would go from there. Other parameters are found in the drop down to the right of rhe word MAP.

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=cmc_gdps&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=084

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&stn=PT&hh=084&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

Shame it only goes out to 84 hrs