February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[eduggs]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I respect your precision. I used "explains" in a statistically descriptive sense, not to talk about causation. I could have used more technical language talking about measuring the predictable variation (via linear relationship in this case) between the independent and dependent variable(s).

Keeping in mind that the Board has an audience, some of whom have yet to enter college, such terminology would create more confusion than clarity. Unfortunately, there are trade-offs involved in simplifying discussions.

I thought your language was good. And I'm not trying to talk down - there's plenty I don't know. It's just that at quick glance the plot and summary give the impression that warmer temps cause less snow. 

[eduggs]

The airmass today is actually pretty cold - seasonably cold at least. And yet the warmer spots in the City will tickle 50 and places like Poughkeepsie and Hartford will near or exceed 40. Classic winter feel in the mountains with springtime in the valleys. 

[SACRUS]

47 / 24 here - warmest since Jan 22nd (49)

[Stormlover74]

Beautiful out

[MJO812]

48 right now. Drip drip.

[dWave]

Snow is melting but fairly slow for mostly sunny and 46F day. That sleet content must have some real staying power. 

[Freezing Drizzle]

55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here you go:

Winter	State College	Williamsport
1892-93	48.3	N.A.
1893-94	66.4	N.A.
1894-95	54.5	15.3
1895-96	33.7	31.5
1896-97	31.6	26.0
1897-98	40.2	30.8
1898-99	53.5	41.8
1899-00	27.0	15.9
1900-01	39.7	18.9
1901-02	59.9	60.6
1902-03	34.1	40.0
1903-04	39.1	49.7
1904-05	48.0	39.7
1905-06	30.7	30.4
1906-07	57.1	42.6
1907-08	67.8	54.2
1908-09	42.6	39.6
1909-10	66.4	35.6
1910-11	52.0	31.2
1911-12	45.5	35.9
1912-13	20.4	15.2
1913-14	77.4	55.4
1914-15	56.0	45.8
1915-16	48.7	65.0
1916-17	39.4	37.6
1917-18	60.5	62.6
1918-19	18.1	14.3
1919-20	54.2	41.9
1920-21	30.2	27.5
1921-22	41.9	32.8
1922-23	65.9	64.4
1923-24	42.2	27.5
1924-25	41.0	35.0
1925-26	48.3	43.0
1926-27	43.2	40.0
1927-28	64.8	38.1
1928-29	21.6	15.2
1929-30	24.0	18.0
1930-31	30.3	26.0
1931-32	28.4	24.7
1932-33	22.1	19.3
1933-34	31.1	37.0
1934-35	42.7	38.5
1935-36	72.4	48.9
1936-37	31.4	22.7
1937-38	20.2	20.6
1938-39	42.4	36.7
1939-40	49.5	44.3
1940-41	45.9	58.1
1941-42	75.0	39.8
1942-43	42.3	41.1
1943-44	36.4	23.6
1944-45	52.2	46.3
1945-46	29.5	34.3
1946-47	44.7	30.6
1947-48	42.5	40.5
1948-49	28.0	22.3
1949-50	34.5	36.8
1950-51	51.4	43.2
1951-52	41.9	50.2
1952-53	31.7	21.0
1953-54	34.0	28.8
1954-55	26.1	34.0
1955-56	32.7	45.4
1956-57	58.2	50.7
1957-58	57.6	49.1
1958-59	44.7	39.1
1959-60	47.8	51.9
1960-61	91.9	80.2
1961-62	52.2	49.6
1962-63	61.2	55.8
1963-64	78.2	76.2
1964-65	46.2	24.9
1965-66	43.2	39.1
1966-67	59.5	64.7
1967-68	30.9	29.0
1968-69	38.9	18.3
1969-70	89.9	82.6
1970-71	68.4	61.4
1971-72	54.2	59.5
1972-73	31.4	30.6
1973-74	40.9	40.6
1974-75	50.1	38.8
1975-76	42.9	28.9
1976-77	40.8	42.1
1977-78	98.2	83.6
1978-79	39.9	37.3
1979-80	17.9	20.5
1980-81	38.8	41.6
1981-82	69.1	54.5
1982-83	22.6	17.6
1983-84	50.2	40.7
1984-85	31.6	25.0
1985-86	42.3	31.2
1986-87	52.3	53.5
1987-88	39.0	36.8
1988-89	23.7	7.0
1989-90	40.8	31.3
1990-91	34.4	27.9
1991-92	26.9	20.0
1992-93	92.5	55.8
1993-94	109.3	81.2
1994-95	23.5	12.8
1995-96	99.0	85.9
1996-97	41.4	15.2
1997-98	48.2	31.1
1998-99	35.2	37.1
1999-00	19.8	23.1
2000-01	32.1	37.8
2001-02	21.7	19.4
2002-03	83.6	63.9
2003-04	71.4	55.5
2004-05	36.2	38.3
2005-06	26.9	25.0
2006-07	37.6	29.4
2007-08	43.2	31.1
2008-09	26.3	24.2
2009-10	49.1	34.9
2010-11	38.4	45.6
2011-12	19.0	12.3
2012-13	43.6	32.7
2013-14	51.8	45.9
2014-15	52.0	44.4
2015-16	17.9	7.7
2016-17	37.8	41.1
2017-18	34.1	26.8
2018-19	40.1	32.4
2019-20	13.2	13.4
2020-21	45.7	54.3
2021-22	31.9	29.3
2022-23	24.3	19.9
2023-24	22.0	18.1
2024-25	20.5	15.3

This data will keep me busy for a while. lol  I am much obliged. @donsutherland1

[nycwinter]

lovely day today mid 40's this is what many of us needed..

[Freezing Drizzle]

Mount Pocono, Vernon, and some points on Long Island are the only locations shown that are currently in the 30s F.

[steve392]

Gorgeous out at the jersey shore. Asbury park was jumping. 

[psv88]

46 here and no wind. Beautiful mid February day. It’s coming (spring)

[sussexcountyobs]

15 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Mount Pocono, Vernon, and some points on Long Island are the only locations shown that are currently in the 30s F.

I'm in Vernon. It's up to 41.4. This is the first real day of some melting with sun out.

[kat5hurricane]

Feeling like spring out there, feels really good, feels rejuvenating. I'll still root for snow when there's something to track but I'm just about done with winter at this point.

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the region saw a dusting of snow overnight. The remainder of the day was mild with the temperature reaching the lower and middle 40s.

Tomorrow will be a bit cooler with highs in the upper 30s. A storm tracking to the south could bring some snowfall to the region tomorrow night into Monday. The steadiest precipitation should pass to the south of New York City. Nevertheless, a 1"-2" snowfall appears likely in and around New York City. Lesser amounts are likely north and west of the City. Parts of central New Jersey and Long Island could see somewhat higher amounts. There remains a risk of lower amounts from New York City northward, as the City will be affected by the northern edge of a fairly weak system.

Following the light snowfall, the remainder of Monday will see highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. It will then turn milder for the remainder of the week into the beginning of next weekend. Highs will mainly be in the middle 40s. One or two days with highs in the upper 40s to near 50° are possible. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +20.94 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.006 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.