Stormlover74 Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 48 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hoping for an inch Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 hours ago, SACRUS said: That 2/11 - 2/13 period has some consistent storm signal and now semblance of mix / ice on the majority of the latest D 9 - D10 forecasts today's 00z-12z-. Models are all signaling that there will be a winter storm(s) coming up in the next week or 2 - IMO there is a good chance most of the region receives at least 6 inches total for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devidbrain Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 It really does feel like winter is off to a strong start, but sometimes a cold and quiet start to February can end up being the precursor to an even more active pattern down the stretch of the month once the jet stream is able to get more active and the moisture can finally make its return; I saw the name Bnlboston Limo referenced in a travel article and it reminded me of how weather talk can pop up in the most unexpected of places, which goes to show just how unpredictable the patterns can be during this time of the year, and as we have seen in the past, late February shifts have brought storms even when early indications are pointing towards a dry outcome, so I am cautiously anticipating a greater degree of changeability as opposed to an early spring lock-in. What long-range indicators are you paying attention to that have you leaning one way or the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Gfs is about to show a nice coastal for February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Boom 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Boom The operational GFS at 280 hours….that’s worked out so well this winter….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 My flight to Florida leaves the evening of the 15th. I’m sure we’ll get crushed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Euro AI also loves a storm next week, just rain though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 55 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The operational GFS at 280 hours….that’s worked out so well this winter….. Hey doofus the other models also show a storm around this time. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 9 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: Today was about the best skiing at Belleayre I have ever had. Their snow depth is literally insane with also snowmaking whales 10+ feet high on many trails. The snow was also amazing. Even did some tree skiing in the glades. Go out and enjoy it! ORDA changed their snowmaking policy. I have never seen whales like that at Belleayre or Whiteface. It is crazy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 35 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Looks like a SWFE setup. Without a massive high pressure dome like last time locking in cold air, we know how those normally turn out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks like a SWFE setup. Without a massive high pressure dome like last time locking in cold air, we know how those normally turn out. There’s been a ton of dif solutions, just looking for the signal at this point and it’s pretty consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 8 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Hoping for an inch Friday night. Most models show some snow (coating to an inch) for this. Would be nice to get a layer of clean snow before the next cold spell this weekend into early next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Pretty impressive wind chills behind the Arctic front this weekend. The much stronger winds this time also mean that NYC has a shot an approaching 5°. The weaker winds during recent Arctic outbreaks couldn’t transport the coldest readings into the heat island and the seasonal low in NYC is 9°. Minimum Temperature Data for December 1, 2025 through February 4, 2026Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 11 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 10 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 9 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 9 NY ST. JAMES COOP 9 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 9 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 49 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks like a SWFE setup. Without a massive high pressure dome like last time locking in cold air, we know how those normally turn out. Its 300 hours out. No setup at ths time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its 300 hours out. No setup at ths time. 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its 300 hours out. No setup at ths time. I was talking verbatim. It does look consistently like there’s some kind of storm setup for around Presidents Day weekend on the long range modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Pretty impressive wind chills behind the Arctic front this weekend. The much stronger winds this time also mean that NYC has a shot an approaching 5°. Since the weaker winds during recent Arctic outbreaks couldn’t transport the coldest readings into the heat island. Yep I can see why the Polar Bear Plunge on Sunday was postponed in Long Beach. It’ll be absolutely frigid. I’m sure people will still show up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Looks like a SWFE setup. Without a massive high pressure dome like last time locking in cold air, we know how those normally turn out. Technically speaking it's a Miller B. Its less about cold air and more about track. Yes the blocking is breaking down at this point. However the temporary fast flow we are in can help shunt this east with a kicker before it can gain too much latitude. Also, looking at the ensembles the ridge is pretty far east which helps us here as well. Of course this is a single model run and far out so it will change dozens of times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z AI EPS still showing potential next weekend. Thanks to Weather Will in the MA forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Yep I can see why the Polar Bear Plunge on Sunday was postponed in Long Beach. It’ll be absolutely frigid. I’m sure people will still show up though. That is one feat I never attempted back in my Long Beach days. I made it a rule to never go into the ocean when it when the SSTs were any cooler than the 60s. But knew a bunch of people who attended them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 31 / 16 clearing. Near or slightly above freezing through Friday, then plunge back sub freezing Sat - Mon. Some whitening of the snow pack Saturday. Looks to be the coldest of the season 2/7 - 29. Moderation 2/10 - mid month and perhaps more storm opportunities in the 2/11 - 2/13 period and beyond into the second half of the month. Ridging into the eastern half but need to see the extent of warmth and opportunities for WAA / overrunning (mix - rain) scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Records: Highs: EWR: 69 (1991) NYC: 68 (1991) LGA: 68 (1991) JFK: 68 (1991) Lows: EWR: 5 (2023) NYC: 0 (1918) LGA: 5 (2023) JFK: 4 (2023) Historical: 1842: A dreadful tornado passed over Mayfield, Kirkland, and other Cuyahoga and Lake Counties in Ohio. According to the Cleveland Herald, no less than 30 houses, barns, and buildings were entirely demolished or very much shattered. A "report from Kirtland says that one man and one child are dead." 1886: Washington, DC from the 2nd to the 4th: Heavy snow of 12.4 inches fell over the DC. area. (NWS - Sterling Office - Table of the "Biggest Snowstorms on Record") 1893: Calgary, Alberta Canada's coldest day saw the temperature drop to -49°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1924: In Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 20.3 inches of snow fell in 24 hours. This ranks as the most snowfall in 24 hours since 1884. This storm caused over $1 million in damage. Streetcar and train service crippled. Snowdrifts of 8 to 10 feet high were common, along with much ice on trees and wires. Schools were closed, and several plate glass windows were broken. 1961 - The third great snowstorm of the winter season struck the northeastern U.S. Cortland NY received 40 inches of snow. (David Ludlum) 1964: A great blizzard was in progress across the Texas Panhandle. This blizzard, which began on the 2nd and ended on the 5th, dumped 26 inches of snow at Borger, 23.8 inches at Miami, and 23.5 inches at Claude. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1984: On this day through the 5th, a fast moving blizzard was racing across northeast, east central South Dakota and most of Iowa with bouts of heavy snow and high winds. Snow amounts were generally less than two inches with the storm. However, as the cold front tore across the area temperatures plunged by as much as 30 degrees in three hours and winds gusted to 70 mph. Another 2 to 3 inches fell before the event was over. Gusty winds struck quickly, plummeting visibilities to near zero in blowing snow and making travel very difficult in a matter of minutes with dangerous wind chills. Hundreds of travelers became stranded in the white-out conditions. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Gales lashed the northern Pacific coast and the coast of northern New England. A storm in the central U.S. produced five inches of snow at Rapid City SD. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A winter storm produced heavy snow from the Upper Ohio Valley to New England, with up to 12 inches reported in Vermont and New Hampshire. Strong northerly winds in the Upper Midwest produced wind chill readings as cold as 60 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Two dozen cities in the south central and northwestern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. The low of 14 below zero at Boise ID was a February record. A winter storm continued in the southwestern U.S. Alta UT reported 49 inches of snow in four days, Wolf Creek CO reported 66 inches in six days, including 28 inches in 24 hours, and up to 84 inches buried the ski resorts of northern New Mexico in three days. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in the northeastern U.S. Snowfall totals in Maine ranged up to 13 inches at Gorham, with 11 inches reported at Portland. Totals in New Hampshire ranged up to 14 inches at Franconia, with 13 inches reported at Portsmouth. A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain caused numerous traffic accidents in eastern New York State resulting in three deaths and fourteen injuries. Subzero cold also gripped parts of the northeastern U.S. Caribou ME and Houlton ME reported morning lows of 15 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1995: A massive nor'easter pounded areas from the southern Mid-Atlantic to northern New England. It would be the only significant storm in the 94-95 winter season. Over 20 inches of snow buried parts of upstate New York. Wind chills dropped as cold as 40 degrees below zero. Behind the storm, arctic air crossing the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes produced intense lake effect squalls for nearly two weeks from the 4th through the 14th. Snowfall totals for the storm ranged from near two to seven feet. During the storm east of Lake Ontario, snow was falling at the incredible rate of five inches an hour! The heavy snow combined with strong winds produced whiteouts and hazardous driving. Actual storm totals downwind of Lake Erie included: Erie County: West Seneca 39 inches, Orchard Park 36 inches, Cheektowaga 36 inches, Colden 32 inches, and Buffalo Airport 31 inches; Genesee County: Corfu 38 inches; Chautauqua County: Sinclairville 27 inches and Jamestown 15 inches. Downwind of Lake Ontario, storm totals included: Oswego County: Palermo 85 inches, Fulton 60 inches, and Oswego 46 inches; Lewis County: Montague 66 inches, Highmarket 48 inches, and Lowville 36 inches; Cayuga County: Fairhaven 36 inches, Wayne County: Wolcott 22 inches; and Jefferson County: Adams 47 inches. 2004 - 7.15 inches of rain deluges Pinson, AL, setting an all-time record rainfall over 24 hours for the town. The Weather Doctor 2007 - Kahului reports a minimum temperature of 54°F, a daily low temperature record for the date. The Weather Doctor 2011 - A winter storm settled four to six inches of snow over northern Texas, including Dallas, just days before the Super Bowl between the Pittsburg Steelers and the Green Bay Packers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Much of North America is on track for a thaw heading into to mid-February following the Arctic outbreak in the Northeast this weekend. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 15 hours ago, weatherpruf said: what is the average for new brunswick..around 28? so going by that we are a hair over average.... The 132 year average is 25.4" while the 1990-2020 30-year average is 29.6". https://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim_v1/monthlydata/index.php?stn=286055&elem=snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Plows went by my house this morning pushing the snow back further. Weird to do this without a true threat on the horizon yet, but I guess they want to push it back before the next deep freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 With major caveats - I don't love Kuchera, but temps will be in the mid-20s so it might be accurate here, and it's the NAM at the end of its range - here's the 12Z NAM Kuchera for late Friday into Sat morning. Would love to get ~1" of fresh powder on top of what we have. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 32 already. Maybe make it to 36 or 37 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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