February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, [email protected] said:

March will not only average at least 5 degrees below normal, the park will not hit 56+ the entire month!

Unless the sun is replaced with something smaller, this isn't going to happen.

January and February were cold, and we avoided averaging 5 degrees below average in either month (we're at -5.1 so far in February, but it looks like the last week will at least be warm enough to avoid). Also, March hasn't average 5 degrees below average since 1960, and there hasn't been a March that failed to reach 56 once since 1906. Yes, not even in the historically cold years of 2014 and 2015.

[[email protected]]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Unless the sun is replaced with something smaller, this isn't going to happen.

January and February were cold, and we avoided averaging 5 degrees below average in either month (we're at -5.1 so far in February, but it looks like the last week will at least be warm enough to avoid). Also, March hasn't average 5 degrees below average since 1960, and there hasn't been a March that failed to reach 56 once since 1906. Yes, not even in the historically cold years of 2014 and 2015.

What do you think will happen in March?

[[email protected]]

Just now, [email protected] said:

What do you think will happen in March?

This winter has been just as severe as 13-14 and 14-15!

[WestBabylonWeather]

Good stuff coming ashore. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

28 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

What do you think will happen in March?

Temperatures will moderate out, and I think it will at least be closer to normal, if not above average. We've strung 3 straight well below average months. I highly doubt we're going to string together a 4th. That hasn't happened in a long time.

31 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

This winter has been just as severe as 13-14 and 14-15!

Even those moderated out. 14-15 even turned in a near record warm May after the cold winter.

[donsutherland1]

A major blizzard is getting underway. A rapidly developing storm will bring heavy snow and high winds to the region into tomorrow afternoon. 

At present, a 16"-22" snowfall appears likely in New York City and its nearby suburbs. Somewhat lesser amounts are likely north and west of New York City. A 18"-24" snowfall is likely across central New Jersey and part of Long Island. Blizzard conditions are likely at the height of the storm late Sunday night into Monday morning across much of the region. Winds will likely gust near 60 mph creating extremely low visibilities and large drifts. 

Final estimates:

Allentown: 8"-12"
Atlantic City: 8"-16"
Baltimore: 4"-8"
Binghamton: 2"-4"
Boston: 18"-24"
Bridgeport: 14"-20"
Harrisburg: 4"-8"
Hartford: 8"-12"
Islip: 18"-24"
New York City: 16"-22"
Newark: 16"-22"
Philadelphia: 12"-18"
Providence: 18"-24"
Scranton: 3"-6"
Washington, DC: 3"-6"
Wilmington: 12"-18"

New York City's 10 Biggest Snowstorms:

1 27.5", January 22-24, 2016
2 26.9", February 11-12, 2006
3 26.4", December 26-27, 1947
4 21.0", March 12-14, 1888
5 20.9", February 25-26, 2010
6 20.2", January 7-8, 1996
7 20.0", December 26-27, 2010
8 19.8", February 16-17, 2003
9 19.0", January 26-27, 2011
10 18.1", January 22-24, 1935 and March 7-8, 1941

As a result, Winter 2025-2026 will become just the 10th winter with two 10" or above snowstorms in New York City. The others are 1895-1996, 1925-1926, 1960-1961, 1977-1978, 1995-1996, 2003-2004, 2009-2010 (3 such storms), 2010-2011, and 2013-2014. Even more impressive, Winter 2025-2026 will be on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 30.0" or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter.

The SOI was +6.48 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.211 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.6° (4.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.7° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

[Fred1970]

My live stream

https://hurricanebystates.com/live-stream/

[MJO812]

[shadowsintherain]

Fun delivering in this! Woot!


.

[EastonSN+]

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

In the words of Tom Petty, they won't back down. Good to see. 

[Fred1970]

Coming down at a good clip now

https://hurricanebystates.com/live-stream/

 

YOUTUBE PAGE

[MJO812]

Next weeks storm keeps trending sourh

This was once a cutter

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next weeks storm keeps trending sourh

This was once a cutter

Some years it just wants to snow. This is one of those years.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Some years it just wants to snow. This is one of those years.

Negative NAO develops on the euro.

[WeatherGeek2025]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Negative NAO develops on the euro.

how's the euro for thursday?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

how's the euro for thursday?

 

[MJO812]

Gfs !

[MJO812]

[EastonSN+]

Phase 7 by the 9th. Will be one last cold and potentially snowy period. 

Yes it can easily snow in NYC in mid March and even early April lol. Don't really care about how long it stays on the ground.

[Fred1970]

MY LIVE STREAM, WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY SOUTHSHORE

[Wannabehippie]

Cannot get an accurate measurement due to all the blowing and drifting. It has to be at least 18". Still coming down to beat the band.

 

[jconsor]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Phase 7 by the 9th. Will be one last cold and potentially snowy period. 

Yes it can easily snow in NYC in mid March and even early April lol. Don't really care about how long it stays on the ground.

Phase 7 composite for Mar does have building ridging near AK which can help to direct colder air masses down to the NE US at times, and we can benefit from overrunning events.  However, it is not really a cold pattern signal with the composite showing eastern US/west Atlantic ridging. 

I believe we really need to get into phase 8 to see a consistently colder pattern, which EPS does show by around Mar 7-8.

EPS is moving the MJO along faster than GEFS.  See my post in ENSO thread for details. 

In short, I agree with you that March has potential for snow, especially first week or so (EPS and AIFS ens showing a signal for Mar 2-4 and perhaps another overrunning event a few days after that) and last half. 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Phase 7 composite for Mar does have building ridging near AK which can help to direct colder air masses down to the NE US at times, and we can benefit from overrunning events.  However, it is not really a cold pattern signal with the composite showing eastern US/west Atlantic ridging. 

I believe we really need to get into phase 8 to see a consistently colder pattern, which EPS does show by around Mar 7-8.

EPS is moving the MJO along faster than GEFS.  See my post in ENSO thread for details. 

In short, I agree with you that March has potential for snow, especially first week or so (EPS and AIFS ens showing a signal for Mar 3-5 and perhaps another overrunning event a few days after that) and last half. 

Thanks is it cold for la ninas? 

[EastonSN+]

On 2/19/2026 at 9:21 AM, GaWx said:

1. Note that the 2/22-23 snowstorm threat period remains mainly in phase 3, the coldest phase on avg during La Niña Febs.

2. When I calculate avg temperatures associated with each phase, I’m not assuming any lag. So, during La Niña, phase 3 was coldest on avg in Feb and phase 7 was coldest on avg in Mar, each with no lag. But also keep in mind that these are merely averages being the coldest along with spreads that cover MB to MA. 
 

 For example:

1) For the coldest La Niña phase in Feb on avg, phase 3:

Avg -107/73 days = -1.5, which is 4F colder than the La Niña Feb phase average of +2.5 and has easily averaged the coldest phase.

 Breakdown of the 18 different Feb La Nina phase 3 periods: wide range but more B/MB (7) than A/MA (5)

MB: 1
B: 6
N: 6
A: 3
MA: 2

—————

2) For the coldest La Niña phase in Mar on avg, phase 7:

Avg -135/81 days = -1.7, which is 2.4F colder than the La Niña Mar average of +0.7 and has averaged the coldest phase.

 Breakdown of the 18 different Mar La Nina phase 7 periods: wide range but more B/MB (8) than A/MA (6)

MB: 2
B: 6
N: 4
A: 3
MA: 3

@jconsor the above states phae 7 is cold for March. Not sure the diff.

[jconsor]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

@jconsor the above states phae 7 is cold for March. Not sure the diff.

Larry's post was specifically about La Ninas and limited to one station - Baltimore.  I think his analysis has merit and definitely is worth keeping in mind, though there is still lots of variability despite the cold lean.

The composites I posted before are averages of all Mar phase 7 days, no matter what ENSO state 

The phase 7 neutral ENSO composites for March is pretty similar to what I showed in my previous post, with eastern US ridging and AK ridging.  On the other hand, the La Nina composite is closer to what you would want for colder.  Two reasons I wouldn't bank on phase 7 being cold for us this Mar- 

 

1) The La Nina is weak and we are starting to see slow signs of atmospheric coupling with the much warmer SST in the Eastern ENSO regions.  So atmosphere would probably behave closer to neutral than La Nina for Mar.

 

2) The phase 7 La Nina composite has a -NAO with above normal heights/hints of blocking near Greenland.  No sign of that on guidance heading into early Mar.  So we will have to rely on the AK ridging to deliver cold enough air for snow I think.

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Larry's post was specifically about La Ninas and limited to one station - Baltimore.  I think his analysis has merit and definitely is worth keeping in mind, though there is still lots of variability despite the cold lean.

The composites I posted before are averages of all Mar phase 7 days, no matter what ENSO state 

The phase 7 neutral ENSO composites for March is pretty similar to what I showed in my previous post, with eastern US ridging and AK ridging.  On the other hand, the La Nina composite is closer to what you would want for colder.  Two reasons I wouldn't bank on phase 7 being cold for us this Mar- 

 

1) The La Nina is weak and we are starting to see slow signs of atmospheric coupling with the much warmer SST in the Eastern ENSO regions.  So atmosphere would probably behave closer to neutral than La Nina for Mar.

 

2) The phase 7 La Nina composite has a -NAO with above normal heights/hints of blocking near Greenland.  No sign of that on guidance heading into early Mar.  So we will have to rely on the AK ridging to deliver cold enough air for snow I think.

Thanks. Terrible we would hit 8 late in March which would raise the chances for another miserable April.

[JustinRP37]

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Next weeks storm keeps trending sourh

This was once a cutter

I know you will get a lot of people saying we don't want snow, but they all should. Nobody wants a cutter with feet of snow on the ground. Basements would be flooded. I love the snow, so I'll always take it, but the absolute best thing that could happen for us in a drought would be a good snow pack that slowly melts into the spring to percolate into the soil and recharge ground water. That would help tremendously.

[GaWx]

49 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

@jconsor the above states phae 7 is cold for March. Not sure the diff.

 Thanks. Keep in mind that although it has been the coldest at Baltimore during La Niña in March, that’s only the avg as there’s lots of variation:

“Breakdown of the 18 different Mar La Nina phase 7 periods: wide range but more B/MB (8) than A/MA (6)

MB: 2
B: 6
N: 4
A: 3
MA: 3”

 Thus, whereas averages are informative, they don’t tell us how any one case will actually turn out. That’s the case for any phase. Those H5 composites are just averages.

 Also, phase 8 has been the 2nd coldest during Mar for La Niña averaging only 1F less cold than phase 7.

 Aside: current storm looks like it happened during phase 3, the coldest on avg (prior to 2026) by a wide margin of any phase at Baltimore during La Niña in Feb.

@jconsor

[winterwx21]

Today's CMC looks pretty good with Thursday's snow. Not gonna be a big storm but maybe we can get a few inches.