brooklynwx99 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 this speaks for itself... AIFS-ENS is very similar to Feb 21. not advertising impacts like that, obviously, but it's becoming clear that this setup holds high end potential. we'll see how things trend in the coming days, but man that is uncanny 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Its a weak system on the euro and trended better. The model has been playing catchup all winter. Its a week system close to a week away - expect changes - as long as it doesn't turn into another sleet fest ! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Its a week system close to a week away - expect changes - as long as it doesn't turn into another sleet fest ! At this point it's whatever. If it happens awesome, if not then spring is well on its way. Playing with house money on a solid B winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Eps improved 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 What did all but one of the phasing storms on models do 5-7 days out do this year? Talk to me Friday if models still show it. Even then take it with a big grain of salt 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 20 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: What did all but one of the phasing storms on models do 5-7 days out do this year? Talk to me Friday if models still show it. Even then take it with a big grain of salt Very true but we track lol hope for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read: Couldn't imagine weenieing this post on a weather forum 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 23 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: What did all but one of the phasing storms on models do 5-7 days out do this year? Talk to me Friday if models still show it. Even then take it with a big grain of salt See you Friday. But then you'll miss all the ups and downs of tracking. Beyond getting the storm to hit, the storm tracking is my favorite part! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: Couldn't imagine weenieing this post on a weather forum Yeah, cant imagine someone weenie-ing normal posts. Who would do that? 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, BxEngine said: Yeah, cant imagine someone weenie-ing normal posts. Who would do that? Ikr! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: too little too late for most ski resorts-was in CO a couple weeks ago it was awful and alot of people canceled their trips Forget the ski season at this point. Now its about water. Glen Canyon can stop functioning this year of things dont pick up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Weathernext Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 23 minutes ago, Irish said: See you Friday. But then you'll miss all the ups and downs of tracking. Beyond getting the storm to hit, the storm tracking is my favorite part! True. That is the hobby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Steve the clown D and tomer having some meteorological words on x lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Snow storm, February 3-4, 1995 - Storm Summary Maybe I'm misremembering, but wasn't it like 70 degrees the week after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Today's splits EWR: 41 / 30* (1) NYC: 39 / 29 (-2) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Couldn't imagine weenieing this post on a weather forum it needed to be said, and it's something many of us suspected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 24 minutes ago, golfer07840 said: Maybe I'm misremembering, but wasn't it like 70 degrees the week after? the whole winter was mild especially compared to the year before which was epic; this was the only major storm in 95, included in kocin's book; i remember it was a saturday so impacts were less; it would be the last storm i would use a shovel on; december 95 i bought a snow blower and guess what, we had a major snow two days later....ya'll know what the rest of that winter was like; the blower was good for up to 12 inches......i thought that would be plenty.....wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 43 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Steve the clown D and tomer having some meteorological words on x lol tomer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Couldn't imagine weenieing this post on a weather forum its tragic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 hours ago, snowman19 said: Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read: I wouldn't weenie this post but I don't find it compelling. Dave is a proud, loud, card carrying Democrat and I feel his weather opinions are biased by his political opinions. If I am reading his graphic correctly there are 18 fewer balloons going up over the USA every day than before the budget cuts, and 5 of them are downstream from us. How many more private balloons are going up today compared to 5 or 10 years ago with data available to the globals? Have sattelite density and observational quality improved at all? Are the number and quality of plane sensors unchanged? What percentage of reduction does this represent when accounting for balloon soundings globally? "Fewer balloons is bad and ruining modeling" is a pretty simple take on the matter. As another poster said we've seen some abysmal model performance over the last five years, particularly the GFS since its latest "upgrade." These failures predate NOAA budget cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, nycsnow said: Steve the clown D and tomer having some meteorological words on x lol Did he delete stuff? I see a respectful back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: the whole winter was mild especially compared to the year before which was epic; this was the only major storm in 95, included in kocin's book; i remember it was a saturday so impacts were less; it would be the last storm i would use a shovel on; december 95 i bought a snow blower and guess what, we had a major snow two days later....ya'll know what the rest of that winter was like; the blower was good for up to 12 inches......i thought that would be plenty.....wrong... So strange I barely remember that storm, probably because it was on a Saturday. And the winter of '95/'96 was so long. It was in the high 30s/low 40s until mid April and felt like it would never end. My GF, now wife, and I went to Florida in March and we basked in the 80 degrees for 10 days. We come back and it was freezing rain and 38. Awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, Monty said: I wouldn't weenie this post but I don't find it compelling. Dave is a proud, loud, card carrying Democrat and I feel his weather opinions are biased by his political opinions. If I am reading his graphic correctly there are 18 fewer balloons going up over the USA every day than before the budget cuts, and 5 of them are downstream from us. How many more private balloons are going up today compared to 5 or 10 years ago with data available to the globals? Have sattelite density and observational quality improved at all? Are the number and quality of plane sensors unchanged? What percentage of reduction does this represent when accounting for balloon soundings globally? "Fewer balloons is bad and ruining modeling" is a pretty simple take on the matter. As another poster said we've seen some abysmal model performance over the last five years, particularly the GFS since its latest "upgrade." These failures predate NOAA budget cuts. the effects are noticeable in all agencies and have been written about extensively in respected publications, at least the ones not owned by murdoch or bezos.....a professional has listed his reasons and you have answered with an anecdote from a poster here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, golfer07840 said: So strange I barely remember that storm, probably because it was on a Saturday. And the winter of '95/'96 was so long. It was in the high 30s/low 40s until mid April and felt like it would never end. My GF, now wife, and I went to Florida in March and we basked in the 80 degrees for 10 days. We come back and it was freezing rain and 38. Awful it also came on the heels of 94; people had gotten used to big snows the year before, and many were talking about the storm coming and were ready for it. and that was basically it for the whole winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 note the gfs ai shows some frozen precip friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 New York City remains on course for a winter season mean temperature of 32.0° or below. Much will depend on the warmup that will conclude February. The last time that happened was in 2014-2015. Some of the guidance and a number of individual ensemble members continue to suggest that the New York City area could experience a significant or major snowfall during the February 22-24 period. That's far from a done deal, despite support from the highest-ranked operational model, the ECMWF-AIFS. For now, the possible event is a low probability, high-impact scenario. The picture should become clearer later this week. To date, New York City has seen 22.3" of snow. 7.7" of additional snowfall would bring the seasonal figure to 30.0". Were that to happen, Winter 2025-2026 would be a special winter for its combination of snowfall and cold. The last five winters to see a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0° or below and 30.0" or more snowfall were 1960-1961, 1977-1978, 1993-1994, 2002-2003 and 2014-2015. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 36 / 34 - a rapid melt off kind of day and the warmest day since the warmth of early Jan for many. Perhaps a stray 50. Might be the only chink of sun we see for a while with a cloudy and overall wet week that may transition to white by Sunday - Monday. Near to below avg beyond the weekend/monday period - 2/23 - beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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