February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[MJO812]

Watch the storm for next week. It has been trending colder.

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, Picard said:

Flurries have developed here.

Same here.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

March 2018 would like a word. 

The problem with this is we’re relying on a very fragile setup that could easily fall apart at this lead time and cold air is lacking. We need a dynamic system to create the cold air essentially and a favorable track. 

That late March 2018 snowstorm back on the South Shore was one of my late season favorites. It was really gorgeous when the sun first came out and all the wet snow was started falling from the trees. My all-time late season favorite was the April 6th, 1982 blizzard. Was my only time experiencing afternoon temperatures in the 20s and blizzard conditions in April.
 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY After March 20th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2026-02-10
	18.4	2018-03-21 through 2018-03-22	0
	17.0	1967-03-21 through 1967-03-22	0
	16.0	1982-04-06 through 1982-04-07	0
-	16.0	1982-04-05 through 1982-04-06	0
	15.0	1967-03-22 through 1967-03-23	0
	14.9	2018-03-20 through 2018-03-21	0
	8.5	1996-04-09 through 1996-04-10	0
	8.0	1974-03-29 through 1974-03-30	0
-	8.0	1974-03-28 through 1974-03-29	0
	6.0	1984-03-28 through 1984-03-29	0

 

 

[BoulderWX]

GFS is a whiff; UKMET a whiff; Canadian is 1-2" forum wide

[kat5hurricane]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Depends where you are in the forum-long Island the city and the jersey coast are way different than your area.  I'm somewhere in the middle.   Always said 3/10 or so was the end around here with the exception of March 2018 type patterns.  

It doesn't matter where you live, saying winter is over on February 11th is stupid.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

GFS is a whiff; UKMET a whiff; Canadian is 1-2" forum wide

Both came north

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

GFS is a whiff; UKMET a whiff; Canadian is 1-2" forum wide

they are basically all holding on to their original solutions from a couple days ago - IMO still a 50/50 chance of a phase which equals stronger more north widespread event of rain/mix/snow - I would hold off on a storm thread today

[TJW014]

Up to 45. Not even wearing a jacket. 

River ice is 11" thick. Time to go and do some stupid shit before the ice melts. 

[MJO812]

Gefs is better

[sussexcountyobs]

Snow flurries have started here at work. NE Bergen County

[MJO812]

Euro is just a trash model these days. Aifs ensembles also trended south

[steve392]

Flurries in secaucus, nj

[nycsnow]

This weekends sealing the deal, almost ready for spring 

[mriceyman]

This weekends sealing the deal, almost ready for spring 

Its feb 11.. move south


.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

10 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

This weekends sealing the deal, almost ready for spring 

You can feel it. It’s coming snowfall melt is rapidly accelerating thank God.

[NEG NAO]

No phase at 12Z on euro = suppressed storm

[Santa Claus]

remember that time our radar worked

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

You can feel it. It’s coming snowfall melt is rapidly accelerating thank God.

not north of you only reached 40 here with clouds all day

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

You can feel it. It’s coming snowfall melt is rapidly accelerating thank God.

That sounds like Monmouth county. The flowers should be blooming next week.

[donsutherland1]

The operational ECMWF abandoned its call for a big snowstorm, but its AI cousin maintained continuity from its earlier cycles with its call for a lack of snow.

 

FWIW, I've seen some complaints on social media concerning the EC-AIFS. They concern the model's being a "black box." At this point, given what I've seen, it's probably better that the AIFS is, in fact, a "black box," as it limits the ability of those who don't like what they see from injecting their own biases into the mix; a lot of that occurs when the non-AI model solutions are pulled apart (often yielding incorrect solutions from the injection of subjectivity).

The AIFS has done quite well this winter, especially within four days. It has sometimes seen changes, but its run-to-run continuity is generally better than its non-AI counterparts, aside from its accuracy. This allows for longer lead time without compromising accuracy.

[jm1220]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is just a trash model these days. Aifs ensembles also trended south

Did your kid cry this time when he saw it? He should. Great opportunity to bond over weenie tears. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The operational ECMWF abandoned its call for a big snowstorm, but its AI cousin maintained continuity from its earlier cycles with its call for a lack of snow.

 

FWIW, I've seen some complaints on social media concerning the EC-AIFS. They concern the model's being a "black box." At this point, given what I've seen, it's probably better that the AIFS is, in fact, a "black box," as it limits the ability of those who don't like what they see from injecting their own biases into the mix; a lot of that occurs when the non-AI model solutions are pulled apart (often yielding incorrect solutions from the injection of subjectivity).

The AIFS has done quite well this winter, especially within four days. It has sometimes seen changes, but its run-to-run continuity is generally better than its non-AI counterparts, aside from its accuracy. This allows for longer lead time without compromising accuracy.

It did well in December when sniffing out the clipper threats and with the miss a week and a half ago. 

[snowman19]

The operational ECMWF abandoned its call for a big snowstorm, but its AI cousin maintained continuity from its earlier cycles with its call for a lack of snow.

 
FWIW, I've seen some complaints on social media concerning the EC-AIFS. They concern the model's being a "black box." At this point, given what I've seen, it's probably better that the AIFS is, in fact, a "black box," as it limits the ability of those who don't like what they see from injecting their own biases into the mix; a lot of that occurs when the non-AI model solutions are pulled apart (often yielding incorrect solutions from the injection of subjectivity).
The AIFS has done quite well this winter, especially within four days. It has sometimes seen changes, but its run-to-run continuity is generally better than its non-AI counterparts, aside from its accuracy. This allows for longer lead time without compromising accuracy.

It’s following the pattern we’ve seen since basically September, 2024. Dry. This entire  winter (since November) has been exceptionally dry. Modeled QPF at range just dwindles as we move closer in time to the “event”. This drought is proving to be way worse than the 2001-02 drought 

[nycsnow]

Still some hits on euro ai eps

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, deathstar9 said:

Probably mid- March 2017 during and right after the blizzard?

 I think that is right because it was before my son was born. 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The operational ECMWF abandoned its call for a big snowstorm, but its AI cousin maintained continuity from its earlier cycles with its call for a lack of snow.

 

FWIW, I've seen some complaints on social media concerning the EC-AIFS. They concern the model's being a "black box." At this point, given what I've seen, it's probably better that the AIFS is, in fact, a "black box," as it limits the ability of those who don't like what they see from injecting their own biases into the mix; a lot of that occurs when the non-AI model solutions are pulled apart (often yielding incorrect solutions from the injection of subjectivity).

The AIFS has done quite well this winter, especially within four days. It has sometimes seen changes, but its run-to-run continuity is generally better than its non-AI counterparts, aside from its accuracy. This allows for longer lead time without compromising accuracy.

The EC AIFS and EPS AIFS are now the two highest scoring models. 
 

 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, kat5hurricane said:

It doesn't matter where you live, saying winter is over on February 11th is stupid.

While anything can happen in March, you can get a good read in general of what the rest of winter will be like by around the 2nd week in February.  

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The AIFS single and EPS AIFS are now our two highest scoring models. 
 

 

All hail skynet.

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, TJW014 said:

Up to 45. Not even wearing a jacket. 

River ice is 11" thick. Time to go and do some stupid shit before the ice melts. 

We would love to see a video of you on this...

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

We would love to see a video of you on this...

Looks like AI to me notice wheels not sitting on the ice properly