February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[jm1220]

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The upcoming system, if it happens, is like a springtime bowling ball. Those commonly favor New England and I strongly believe that's what will happen. 

Their snow climo is still very favorable even in the CC era while ours drops off sharply by mid Feb. 

March 2018 would like a word. 

The problem with this is we’re relying on a very fragile setup that could easily fall apart at this lead time and cold air is lacking. We need a dynamic system to create the cold air essentially and a favorable track. 

[SACRUS]

43 here quickly with sun about to give way to clouds for a bit

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

March 2018 would like a word. 

The problem with this is we’re relying on a very fragile setup that could easily fall apart at this lead time and cold air is lacking. We need a dynamic system to create the cold air essentially and a favorable track. 

So would PDI and PDII.

[bluewave]

On 2/10/2026 at 8:52 AM, jm1220 said:

I’d give this winter a B-/C+ if we’re really done with any decent snow from here. Definitely cold but once again enormous potential wasted for big storms when we had the cold. Jan 25th as good an event as it was had the most snow north of me since it ended up behaving as SWFEs do. We did luck out in Dec with the clippers but across the area we’re still below average for seasonal snow and I can’t rate the winter as that good unless we make it above average. 

Places like Islip are right at their long term average snowfall since 1963-1964. This is a big win in my book. It has been very challenging to get near or above average seasonal snowfall since 2018-2019.
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	0.5	4.5	9.2	9.1	4.8	0.7	28.7
2025-2026	0.0	T	12.5	14.9	1.2	M	M	28.6
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	2.1	2.7	6.9	0.0	0.0	11.7
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	3.1	7.8	0.0	0.0	10.9
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.4	T	3.0	1.6	0.0	5.0
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.3	31.8	3.3	1.6	0.0	37.0
2020-2021	T	0.0	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	T	33.5
2019-2020	0.0	0.1	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	T	6.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8
2017-2018	0.0	T	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	65.9
2016-2017	T	T	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	39.3
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	24.8	13.2	3.2	0.2	41.4
2014-2015	0.0	T	0.4	30.2	13.4	19.7	0.0	63.7
2013-2014	0.0	0.3	8.1	25.2	24.5	5.4	0.2	63.7
2012-2013	0.0	4.2	0.6	3.3	31.4	7.4	0.0	46.9
2011-2012	0.3	0.0	T	3.8	0.6	T	0.0	4.7
2010-2011	0.0	T	14.9	34.4	3.9	2.1	T	55.3
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	25.3	6.4	21.7	0.4	0.0	53.8
2008-2009	0.0	T	10.4	8.9	3.3	13.6	T	36.2
2007-2008	0.0	0.0	2.6	0.8	7.3	T	0.0	10.7
2006-2007	0.0	T	0.0	1.0	4.2	3.8	T	9.0
2005-2006	0.0	0.5	7.6	4.7	19.9	3.2	0.1	36.0
2004-2005	0.0	T	7.0	21.5	17.0	13.3	0.0	58.8
2003-2004	0.0	0.0	15.5	19.1	1.1	5.7	0.0	41.4
2002-2003	0.0	1.0	16.0	2.6	26.3	3.7	5.0	54.6
2001-2002	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.7	T	T	0.0	3.7
2000-2001	T	0.0	10.8	9.2	8.6	10.3	T	38.9
1999-2000	0.0	T	0.4	5.8	2.6	0.2	T	9.0
1998-1999	0.0	0.0	3.0	4.5	2.8	9.1	T	19.4
1997-1998	0.0	T	1.0	T	T	1.6	T	2.6
1996-1997	0.0	T	1.2	3.3	2.2	3.7	2.0	12.4
1995-1996	0.0	3.0	13.3	20.2	19.0	12.0	9.6	77.1
1994-1995	0.0	T	T	T	5.1	T	0.0	5.1
1993-1994	0.0	T	3.3	8.8	20.0	5.0	0.0	37.1
1992-1993	0.0	0.0	2.1	2.3	10.9	13.3	0.0	28.6
1991-1992	0.0	0.0	2.0	2.3	1.5	7.6	T	13.4
1990-1991	0.0	0.0	4.0	3.6	4.3	1.9	0.0	13.8
1989-1990	0.0	7.6	0.2	2.0	2.0	4.2	3.0	19.0
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	10.4	4.4	1.2	3.0	T	19.0
1987-1988	0.0	1.1	4.2	10.7	0.1	3.4	0.0	19.5
1986-1987	0.0	T	3.4	8.8	8.6	1.7	0.0	22.5
1985-1986	0.0	T	2.1	2.6	10.4	0.1	T	15.2
1984-1985	0.0	T	4.7	13.5	8.7	T	T	26.9
1983-1984	0.0	T	2.6	11.9	T	13.0	0.0	27.5
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	3.2	1.5	26.1	T	1.1	31.9
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	1.0	18.1	0.3	T	16.0	35.4
1980-1981	0.0	T	0.5	13.2	T	7.1	0.0	20.8
1979-1980	T	0.0	1.5	4.0	1.5	2.0	0.0	9.0
1978-1979	0.0	4.0	T	6.9	17.2	T	T	28.1
1977-1978	0.0	0.8	0.2	27.7	28.9	10.4	T	68.0
1976-1977	0.0	T	6.2	11.2	6.6	4.0	0.0	28.0
1975-1976	0.0	T	11.0	7.8	7.5	3.9	0.0	30.2
1974-1975	0.0	0.5	T	1.8	11.0	1.2	T	14.5
1973-1974	0.0	0.0	T	9.0	17.0	8.0	T	34.0
1972-1973	T	0.0	T	1.5	3.0	T	T	4.5
1971-1972	0.0	T	T	2.1	12.5	1.0	T	15.6
1970-1971	0.0	0.0	2.1	11.3	2.0	1.0	2.5	18.9
1969-1970	0.0	T	12.0	7.0	7.0	1.0	T	27.0
1968-1969	0.0	T	3.0	T	19.5	11.0	0.0	33.5
1967-1968	0.0	2.5	5.0	9.1	3.0	3.0	0.0	22.6
1966-1967	0.0	0.0	8.6	1.0	19.5	21.7	T	50.8
1965-1966	0.0	0.0	T	12.1	3.6	0.0	0.0	15.7
1964-1965	0.0	0.0	2.0	24.6	7.4	4.5	1.0	39.5
1963-1964	0.0	T	11.0	11.7	16.0	1.0	0.0	39.7

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Jesus Christ some people are unbearable lately on here. I get that many are sick of winter but wishing it away isn’t going to work. Why, suddenly, are so many people saying winters end in mid February in our region? That is statistically and categorically false. On a probability standpoint we just past the most snowy portion of winter. It doesn’t completely drop off. Growing up St. Patty’s day really felt like the end of winter with ski areas turning more to slush and yards melting. I’d be very very shocked if we put up a goose egg the rest of winter. 

Depends where you are in the forum-long Island the city and the jersey coast are way different than your area.  I'm somewhere in the middle.   Always said 3/10 or so was the end around here with the exception of March 2018 type patterns.  

[NEG NAO]

This November 2012 example of a system that started with barely cold marginal airmass in place and it was  silll Fall ! All of this snow was created by dynamic cooling. This weekend system has the potential of creating a similar dynamic cooling event and this will be in a more favorable mid- February environment with cold water temps also.

Also factor in the layer of ice that will still be present on the surface - not much to interfere with the dynamic cooling - except if the systems don't phase

Snow storm, November 7-8, 2012 - Storm Summary

[psv88]

43 

[jm1220]

Big melt day today. Probably upper 40s for highs. This time of year without clouds we usually overshoot expected highs with the sun getting stronger every day and no leaves on the trees. 

[Brian5671]

Clouds moved back in here from the NW-up to 36-roads now just wet

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

35 here with light snow. This is kind of unexpected.

[IrishRob17]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

35 here with light snow. This is kind of unexpected.

Yeah, flurries here and overcast, wasn't in the forecast. 

[psv88]

44 and bright sun 

[Picard]

Looks like we are going to stay socked into the clouds today up this way.

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Big melt day today. Probably upper 40s for highs. This time of year without clouds we usually overshoot expected highs with the sun getting stronger every day and no leaves on the trees. 

we have about 6 hours today of temps in the 40's - this ice glacier is so thick it takes longer  than that to melt more then an inch off of it if that - temps next few days are much cooler - so whatever precip falls this weekend will still be falling on a layer of snow/ice also no bright sun here right now

[bluewave]

Newark ends its longest under 40° day streak since 2004.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kewr

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 40 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	38	1866-12-25 through 1867-01-31
2	37	1878-12-16 through 1879-01-21
3	35	1945-01-05 through 1945-02-08
-	35	1874-12-30 through 1875-02-02
4	33	1876-12-14 through 1877-01-15
5	29	1978-01-27 through 1978-02-24
6	28	1985-01-15 through 1985-02-11
-	28	1881-01-11 through 1881-02-07
-	28	1862-01-10 through 1862-02-06
7	27	1903-12-26 through 1904-01-21
8	26	1902-01-28 through 1902-02-22
-	26	1901-01-23 through 1901-02-17
-	26	1880-12-15 through 1881-01-09
9	25	1920-01-02 through 1920-01-26
-	25	1855-12-25 through 1856-01-18
10	23	1936-01-23 through 1936-02-14
-	23	1905-01-21 through 1905-02-12
11	22	1924-02-04 through 1924-02-25
-	22	1918-01-16 through 1918-02-06
-	22	1912-01-25 through 1912-02-15
-	22	1904-12-01 through 1904-12-22
-	22	1856-01-20 through 1856-02-10
12	21	2000-01-17 through 2000-02-06
-	21	1948-01-22 through 1948-02-11
-	21	1899-01-27 through 1899-02-16
-	21	1895-01-27 through 1895-02-16
-	21	1893-01-03 through 1893-01-23
-	21	1882-12-28 through 1883-01-17
13	20	2004-01-14 through 2004-02-02
-	20	1976-12-21 through 1977-01-09
-	20	1940-01-16 through 1940-02-04
-	20	1888-01-14 through 1888-02-02
-	20	1846-02-12 through 1846-03-03
14	19	2026-01-23 through 2026-02-10
-	19	2003-01-14 through 2003-02-01
-	19	1980-12-31 through 1981-01-18
-	19	1966-01-22 through 1966-02-09
-	19	1939-12-26 through 1940-01-13
-	19	1886-12-25 through 1887-01-12

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The upcoming system, if it happens, is like a springtime bowling ball. Those commonly favor New England and I strongly believe that's what will happen. 

Their snow climo is still very favorable even in the CC era while ours drops off sharply by mid Feb. 

You live in central New Jersey yet always speak as if your area pretty much covers all the bases for a forum that's pretty diverse climate wise.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, Picard said:

Looks like we are going to stay socked into the clouds today up this way.

I've had light snow the past 30 minutes.

[hudsonvalley21]

7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

35 here with light snow. This is kind of unexpected.

Same here 

[Stormlover74]

Icon is warm and south 

[SACRUS]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Newark ends its longest under 40° day streak since 2004.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kewr

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 40 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	38	1866-12-25 through 1867-01-31
2	37	1878-12-16 through 1879-01-21
3	35	1945-01-05 through 1945-02-08
-	35	1874-12-30 through 1875-02-02
4	33	1876-12-14 through 1877-01-15
5	29	1978-01-27 through 1978-02-24
6	28	1985-01-15 through 1985-02-11
-	28	1881-01-11 through 1881-02-07
-	28	1862-01-10 through 1862-02-06
7	27	1903-12-26 through 1904-01-21
8	26	1902-01-28 through 1902-02-22
-	26	1901-01-23 through 1901-02-17
-	26	1880-12-15 through 1881-01-09
9	25	1920-01-02 through 1920-01-26
-	25	1855-12-25 through 1856-01-18
10	23	1936-01-23 through 1936-02-14
-	23	1905-01-21 through 1905-02-12
11	22	1924-02-04 through 1924-02-25
-	22	1918-01-16 through 1918-02-06
-	22	1912-01-25 through 1912-02-15
-	22	1904-12-01 through 1904-12-22
-	22	1856-01-20 through 1856-02-10
12	21	2000-01-17 through 2000-02-06
-	21	1948-01-22 through 1948-02-11
-	21	1899-01-27 through 1899-02-16
-	21	1895-01-27 through 1895-02-16
-	21	1893-01-03 through 1893-01-23
-	21	1882-12-28 through 1883-01-17
13	20	2004-01-14 through 2004-02-02
-	20	1976-12-21 through 1977-01-09
-	20	1940-01-16 through 1940-02-04
-	20	1888-01-14 through 1888-02-02
-	20	1846-02-12 through 1846-03-03
14	19	2026-01-23 through 2026-02-10
-	19	2003-01-14 through 2003-02-01
-	19	1980-12-31 through 1981-01-18
-	19	1966-01-22 through 1966-02-09
-	19	1939-12-26 through 1940-01-13
-	19	1886-12-25 through 1887-01-12

NYC to 40 as well

[IrishRob17]

20 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Yeah, flurries here and overcast, wasn't in the forecast. 

Its a more steady very light snow now. 

[gravitylover]

Popped up to 38, dropping and snowing now

Nah can't be, winter's over

Lol

[BoulderWX]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Icon is warm and south 

I would glady take a rain or snow storm at this point. 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

Popped up to 38, dropping and snowing now

Nah can't be, winter's over

Lol

Didn’t you hear? They canceled winter back in December. 

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Depends where you are in the forum-long Island the city and the jersey coast are way different than your area.  I'm somewhere in the middle.   Always said 3/10 or so was the end around here with the exception of March 2018 type patterns.  

Very true, but it wasn’t that long ago we had that record breaking cold snap in mid March even down to the coast with night temps dipping to the single digits. I remember because I was in Vermont and opted for a spa day with my wife since it was in the single digits with below zero wind chills. That was an insane March. I’d have to look at my photo album for when that was. 

[deathstar9]

3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Very true, but it wasn’t that long ago we had that record breaking cold snap in mid March even down to the coast with night temps dipping to the single digits. I remember because I was in Vermont and opted for a spa day with my wife since it was in the single digits with below zero wind chills. That was an insane March. I’d have to look at my photo album for when that was. 

Probably mid- March 2017 during and right after the blizzard?

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

This November 2012 example of a system that started with barely cold marginal airmass in place and it was  silll Fall ! All of this snow was created by dynamic cooling. This weekend system has the potential of creating a similar dynamic cooling event and this will be in a more favorable mid- February environment with cold water temps also.

Also factor in the layer of ice that will still be present on the surface - not much to interfere with the dynamic cooling - except if the systems don't phase

Snow storm, November 7-8, 2012 - Storm Summary

yes and we still had power issues from Sandy...my pup was a few months old and loved the snow....about 7 inches here but 13 in ....freehold. that pup is still going....

[Picard]

43 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I've had light snow the past 30 minutes.

Flurries have developed here.

[weatherpruf]

45 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

we have about 6 hours today of temps in the 40's - this ice glacier is so thick it takes longer  than that to melt more then an inch off of it if that - temps next few days are much cooler - so whatever precip falls this weekend will still be falling on a layer of snow/ice also no bright sun here right now

they are STILL  digging out here; rte 27 near metropark today...got slowed down by it. they just dug my street corner out yesterday. most normal people think this was the winter from hell and are done with it; they are giddy over 50s next week, if it happens.....

[weatherpruf]

17 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Very true, but it wasn’t that long ago we had that record breaking cold snap in mid March even down to the coast with night temps dipping to the single digits. I remember because I was in Vermont and opted for a spa day with my wife since it was in the single digits with below zero wind chills. That was an insane March. I’d have to look at my photo album for when that was. 

i only got hit with one of those march storms directly, but it was a doozy, and it was the last one....pretty decent snow 8-10 inches or more.