February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[SACRUS]

 

35  8 split today snow/ice pack glacier - we'll see if we can whiten it up a bit staruday

[Stormlover74]

AIfs looks pretty active moving forward

[SACRUS]

 

That 2/11 - 2/13 period has some consistent storm signal and now  semblance of mix / ice  on the majority of the latest D 9 - D10  forecasts today's 00z-12z-.   

[psv88]

34 today

[Prue11]

Down to 16.5. Once again Already lower than forecasted. Last night was sneaky cold for many 

[JustinRP37]

Today was about the best skiing at Belleayre I have ever had. Their snow depth is literally insane with also snowmaking whales 10+ feet high on many trails. The snow was also amazing. Even did some tree skiing in the glades. Go out and enjoy it! 

[Stormlover74]

[MJO812]

[winterwx21]

48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hoping for an inch Friday night. 

[NEG NAO]

6 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

That 2/11 - 2/13 period has some consistent storm signal and now  semblance of mix / ice  on the majority of the latest D 9 - D10  forecasts today's 00z-12z-.   

Models are all signaling that there will be a winter storm(s) coming up in the next week or 2 - IMO there is a good chance most of the region receives at least 6 inches total for the month.

[Devidbrain]

It really does feel like winter is off to a strong start, but sometimes a cold and quiet start to February can end up being the precursor to an even more active pattern down the stretch of the month once the jet stream is able to get more active and the moisture can finally make its return; I saw the name Bnlboston Limo referenced in a travel article and it reminded me of how weather talk can pop up in the most unexpected of places, which goes to show just how unpredictable the patterns can be during this time of the year, and as we have seen in the past, late February shifts have brought storms even when early indications are pointing towards a dry outcome, so I am cautiously anticipating a greater degree of changeability as opposed to an early spring lock-in. What long-range indicators are you paying attention to that have you leaning one way or the other?

[MJO812]

Gfs is about to show a nice coastal for February 15

[MJO812]

Boom

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Boom

The operational GFS at 280 hours….that’s worked out so well this winter…..

[psv88]

My flight to Florida leaves the evening of the 15th. I’m sure we’ll get crushed 

[nycsnow]

[nycsnow]

Euro AI also loves a storm next week, just rain though

[MJO812]

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The operational GFS at 280 hours….that’s worked out so well this winter…..

Hey doofus the other models also show a storm around this time.

[the_other_guy]

9 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Today was about the best skiing at Belleayre I have ever had. Their snow depth is literally insane with also snowmaking whales 10+ feet high on many trails. The snow was also amazing. Even did some tree skiing in the glades. Go out and enjoy it! 

ORDA changed their snowmaking policy. I have never seen whales like that at Belleayre or Whiteface. It is crazy. 

[jm1220]

35 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Looks like a SWFE setup. Without a massive high pressure dome like last time locking in cold air, we know how those normally turn out. 

[nycsnow]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like a SWFE setup. Without a massive high pressure dome like last time locking in cold air, we know how those normally turn out. 

There’s been a ton of dif solutions, just looking for the signal at this point and it’s pretty consistent 

[mob1]

8 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Hoping for an inch Friday night. 

Most models show some snow (coating to an inch) for this. Would be nice to get a layer of clean snow before the next cold spell this weekend into early next week. 

[bluewave]

Pretty impressive wind chills behind the Arctic front this weekend. The much stronger winds this time also mean that NYC has a shot an approaching 5°. The weaker winds during recent Arctic outbreaks couldn’t transport the coldest readings into the heat island and the seasonal low in NYC is 9°.
 

 

Minimum Temperature Data for December 1, 2025 through February 4, 2026
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL	ICAO	11
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	10
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	9
NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	9
NY	ST. JAMES	COOP	9
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	9
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	9

[MJO812]

49 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like a SWFE setup. Without a massive high pressure dome like last time locking in cold air, we know how those normally turn out. 

Its 300 hours out. No setup at ths time. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its 300 hours out. No setup at ths time. 

 

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its 300 hours out. No setup at ths time. 

I was talking verbatim. It does look consistently like there’s some kind of storm setup for around Presidents Day weekend on the long range modeling. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty impressive wind chills behind the Arctic front this weekend. The much stronger winds this time also mean that NYC has a shot an approaching 5°. Since the weaker winds during recent Arctic outbreaks couldn’t transport the coldest readings into the heat island. 
 

 

Yep I can see why the Polar Bear Plunge on Sunday was postponed in Long Beach. It’ll be absolutely frigid. I’m sure people will still show up though. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like a SWFE setup. Without a massive high pressure dome like last time locking in cold air, we know how those normally turn out. 

Technically speaking it's a Miller B.

Its less about cold air and more about track. 

Yes the blocking is breaking down at this point. However the temporary fast flow we are in can help shunt this east with a kicker before it can gain too much latitude. 

Also, looking at the ensembles the ridge is pretty far east which helps us here as well. 

Of course this is a single model run and far out so it will change dozens of times.

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z AI EPS still showing potential next weekend.

Thanks to Weather Will in the MA forum.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Yep I can see why the Polar Bear Plunge on Sunday was postponed in Long Beach. It’ll be absolutely frigid. I’m sure people will still show up though. 

That is one feat I never attempted back in my Long Beach days. I made it a rule to never go into the ocean when it when the SSTs were any cooler than the 60s. But knew a bunch of people who attended them.

[SACRUS]

31 / 16 clearing.  Near or slightly above freezing through Friday, then plunge back sub freezing Sat - Mon.  Some whitening of the snow pack Saturday.  Looks to be the coldest of the season 2/7 - 29.   Moderation 2/10 - mid month and perhaps more storm opportunities in the 2/11 - 2/13 period and beyond into the second half of the month.  Ridging into the eastern half but need to see the extent of warmth and opportunities for WAA / overrunning (mix - rain) scenarios.