It's not coming 1/31-2/1 2026

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This is probably one of those cases where probability of exceedance does a better job than QPF mean at characterizing the likelihood of impact. A few high QPF members are likely skewing the mean.

Alot of decent hits

[SACRUS]

GEFS

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

There's a follow up system that has a better chance to do something a few days later. 

[Snowlover11]

We’re cooked chat.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

[RU848789]

Interesting to see Lee Goldberg's first "guess" (he said it was a model run he agreed with, but his first forecast will be out tomorrow), which I think is reasonable and WxRisk's first guess which seems very aggressive and based heavily on the 18Z Euro.  I'm also still stunned by the NBM being so high - and it has been cut down significantly since 18Z (maybe from the ensembles being still snowier than their Ops).  With the 0Z Op models all showing very little snow in our region, except for far E LI (and except for the stubborn Euro still showing an inch for the NJ coast and a few inches for E LI), I wonder if we'll finally see the NBM really come down and DT cut back on his totals (and maybe even Lee).  Same thing with the probabilities for 4" from the storm in the NWS graphic below, which seem very hight.  Sucks to see so much potential likely being unrealized, but I did just get 19" worth of "snow" (as frozen snow/sleet mass), so it's hard to complain too much. On the other hand, we're still 3.5 days out, and it wouldn't take a monumental shift to at least bring a few inches to 95, so you never know.   

 

 

 

 

 

[NEG NAO]

22 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Interesting to see Lee Goldberg's first "guess" (he said it was a model run he agreed with, but his first forecast will be out tomorrow), which I think is reasonable and WxRisk's first guess which seems very aggressive and based heavily on the 18Z Euro.  I'm also still stunned by the NBM being so high - and it has been cut down significantly since 18Z (maybe from the ensembles being still snowier than their Ops).  With the 0Z Op models all showing very little snow in our region, except for far E LI (and except for the stubborn Euro still showing an inch for the NJ coast and a few inches for E LI), I wonder if we'll finally see the NBM really come down and DT cut back on his totals (and maybe even Lee).  Sucks to see so much potential likely being unrealized, but I did just get 19" worth of "snow" (as frozen snow/sleet mass), so it's hard to complain too much. On the other hand, we're still 3.5 days out, and it wouldn't take a monumental shift to at least bring a few inches to 95, so you never know.   

 

 

I think its amazing how some posters here are just "throwing in the towel" on this storm like there is no chance of any snow when parts of the region could still receive anywhere from 2 - 8 inches AS OF NOW or more if there is a slight northwest jog of less than 100 miles. if you receive 4 -8 inches it will seem like a bigger deal because of all the snow already on the ground and frozen solid piles and VERY cold temps. The only good thing is it would be overnight Saturday once again very little traffic and Sunday a majority of people don't have to go to work or school. I also think the title of this thread is misleading - FYI it could be coming but only a smaller event than previously expected.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Only model with a hit is the 0z navgem so far. This model did pretty damn well in the last storm we had. 

 

[shadowsintherain]

It doesn’t need much of a jog west.


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[Bxstormwatcher360]

0z canadian def trended west. It gets us in to the light snow.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

29 minutes ago, shadowsintherain said:

It doesn’t need much of a jog west.


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Yeah 2 models have trended west so far,we keep forgetting that a 30 to 60 mile swing northwest gets us in to the good snows.