Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Don’t worry…if the decaying block had not sinked south this would have phased in the TN Valley for a Cleveland super bomb redux…

Clean phases still happen, just for us.

[Wxbear25]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If we are ever going to see a substantial model bust in this day in age of models inside of 72 hours, it will be with this setup

yup. Between the multitude of moving parts, the poor data-region the primary feature is coming out of, the potential spin-up of convective-driven vorticity east of the main feature and whether or not that can gain latitude and the overall anomalous nature of the entire setup, this would be the storm to catch people by surprise

I'm more concerned with the upper level evolution, and I think moves from things such as the GFS are closer to producing here than it may seem, so I've not yet given up hope, but I'll admit it definitely is much more annoying than last storm where we knew we were getting hit, just trying to fine-tune all the smaller details.

He're we're trying to fine-tune the entire damn system lol

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The stupid double barrel low is pulling this low away. Get rid of that and this storm would be closer to the coast.

The upper dynamics aren’t really there for sfc low development inside the BM

 

dPVA, jet dynamics, mid level triple point…all too far east

[weathafella]

Well thank goodness for last weekend.  That rescued the winter in my mind.

[Typhoon Tip]

I wonder if this can be ironed out if that relays weaker up there ...

LOL,  frankly I've grown weary and tired of even looking at this motherfucker

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Wxbear25 said:

yup. Between the multitude of moving parts, the poor data-region the primary feature is coming out of, the potential spin-up of convective-driven vorticity east of the main feature and whether or not that can gain latitude and the overall anomalous nature of the entire setup, this would be the storm to catch people by surprise

I'm more concerned with the upper level evolution, and I think moves from things such as the GFS are closer to producing here than it may seem, so I've not yet given up hope, but I'll admit it definitely is much more annoying than last storm where we knew we were getting hit, just trying to fine-tune all the smaller details.

He're we're trying to fine-tune the entire damn system lol

100% agreed. 

Overall, it seems very unlikely we see the changes needed but it's much closer than it appears. I also hate comparing storms, particularly different setups and this is nothing like last week. This is a totally different animal and additional processes being added. 

 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, weathafella said:

Well thank goodness for last weekend.  That rescued the winter in my mind.

I agree. And this winter has quite a bit of time left in it. So there's definitely more opportunities for something. I think the mindset is when we have something comes through that gives us all the goods, we want more. But unfortunately that's not what happens, at least not right away.

[Wxbear25]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That had already happened by this point last week...running out of time.

Largely, yeah, though it continued tweaking ever so slightly until game-time.

I'm working under the assumption we dont need a massive shift to allow these two pieces to divorce more cleanly than they currently are.

Is it a hail mary? damn straight. Would I forecast it, hell no.

Moreso typing a steam of thoughts as to how this system could theoretically work.

Regardless of the final outcome, its an incredibly fascinating storm from a meteorological standpoint, and, to me at least,  trying to pin down any potential variables and how they could potentially affect the outcome is alot of the fun of forecasting, even if its an insanity-inducing PIA lol

[H2Otown_WX]

Damn this sucks, why can't I live in a world where ice cream and cheesecake are healthy and CC causes clean phases to happen more easily?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well thank goodness for last weekend.  That rescued the winter in my mind.

Yup, dragged it out of ratter territory. But it appears, back to your regularly scheduled programming. Not much going on.

[Kitz Craver]

I’m really happy with winter so far, just bummed to miss this. Would have been heading to epicosity levels.

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well thank goodness for last weekend.  That rescued the winter in my mind.

Unless it doesn’t snow the rest of the way 

Does take it out of ratter territory but we were trending that way regardless. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup, dragged it out of ratter territory. But it appears, back to your regularly scheduled programming. Not much going on.

2/5-2/6 has been showing up so deep winter continues.

[Layman]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if this can be ironed out if that relays weaker up there ...

LOL,  frankly I've grown weary and tired of even looking at this motherfucker

 

On 1/28/2026 at 8:48 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Sorry, ...that's not the right hole, honey    

I'm sensing a theme here as this thing has trended poorly...

"moving quickly and entering the back side of the L/W..."

[Typhoon Tip]

I never had a problem with this winter ..even before this last bigger snow producer.   I just figured it for over-achieving on cold alone- I realize the demarcation is based upon snow fall, but that's endemic to these individuals and collective psychology amid this very niche' social media.   We had early blocking ... we had snow threats.  Some minor ones panned out.  But a bigger event eventually transpiring was a parlay when we had/have a cold biased winter pattern persisting the way we did. 

Notice also ...we didn't get a bigger deal event until after the N. Pacific corruptive variant of the -WPO plaguing Dec was finally fully vanquished.  That was a toxic relationship with that giant narcissistic block, LOL.  Anyway, we got back to episodic -EPO bursts and allowed the Pacific to undercut for a coffee break and we get a STJ drive snow bomb out of it.

Anyway, even if we didn't get this 15 to 20 incher, we probably would have ended up near normal by the end off 2-3" buck shot adding up over the long haul.  So there... normal snow in a cold winter.  The problem is... that psychology ^   ... people tend to judge the winters based on weather that they get that psychology masturbated or not.  So that's really a different discussion entirely..

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Layman said:

 

I'm sensing a theme here as this thing has trended poorly...

"moving quickly and entering the back side of the L/W..."

yet another way to metaphor it,   we got *!@#ed in the ass

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Canadian clips the outer cape with flurries.

[Hailstoned]

21 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

Feel like we have seen more of those in recent years. 

It does seem in general that organized, coherent coastal lows as opposed to strung out disorganized synoptic situations, such as the present, have been lacking in recent years. (Due to the preponderance of fast flows Typhoon Tip often references?) We got away with a biggie this past weekend because it was less a storm and more a situation of exceptional overrunning.

[subdude]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It was fun to watch the car thermometer change as I drove in to work.  Lowest I saw was -9 in... Westminster? on Rte 2.

Was at 10F by the time I got to work 15 minutes later

This morning was nuts. I had -15 in my truck at home so I went back in the house and 2 of my thermometers were at -14. Coldest day I have ever seen in Gardner. Drove to work in Fitchburg and it was 5 in the parking lot. 

[nbweather]

While trends aren't great this morning, it will be interesting to see how these multiple low scenarios end up working out, or if we can get a last minute consolidation that helps a northward trend. 

[NoCORH4L]

2 minutes ago, subdude said:

This morning was nuts. I had -15 in my truck at home so I went back in the house and 2 of my thermometers were at -14. Coldest day I have ever seen in Gardner. Drove to work in Fitchburg and it was 5 in the parking lot. 

Yup, same. 0 at my house, but got to the little hollow at the end of my road and it was -4. Passed through Leominster and it was 5.  Fake cold can be extreme. 

[snowdazed]

How far east is this puppy trending?  It looks like RI is just on the edge of things.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, snowdazed said:

How far east is this puppy trending?  It looks like RI is just on the edge of things.

ACK grazer

[ariof]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well thank goodness for last weekend.  That rescued the winter in my mind.

That and the BN after, keeping a nice, white, useful snowpack in place. Oftentimes we get 2' of snow and it's 45 the next week and gone into slush and puddles. The globals haven't shown a high much above freezing in SNE before Valentine's Day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I love the "It's not going to snow, but I was still fascinated by all of the moving ennui particles on modeling...still interested in seeing just how it ultimately doesn't snow"

I couldn't give two shits once I know it won't snow.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love the "It's not going to snow, but I was still fascinated by all of the moving ennui particles on modeling...still interested in seeing just how it ultimately doesn't snow"

I couldn't give two shits once I know it won't snow.

Vis sat over the gulf stream will be amazing Sunday

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

9 minutes ago, snowdazed said:

How far east is this puppy trending?  It looks like RI is just on the edge of things.

Yeah unless we start seeing significant west trends then PVD area is out. Maybe a flurry or something.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Vis sat over the gulf stream will be amazing Sunday

Gonna check the F out over the weekend....need a break after yesterday's thesis and the ongoing butt-plug on guidance.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gonna check the F out over the weekend....need a break after yesterday's thesis and the ongoing butt-plug on guidance.

I know how much you put into this. Don't beat yourself up, as much as we think we see what's going to happen, the atmosphere has many tricks up its sleeve. Plus everyone appreciates all your input with your analysis. Don't let this one get you down, there will be another that will work out. Sometimes checking out for a bit is good for the soul.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I know how much you put into this. Don't beat yourself up, as much as we think we see what's going to happen, the atmosphere has many tricks up its sleeve. Plus everyone appreciates all your input with your analysis. Don't let this one get you down, there will be another that will work out. Sometimes checking out for a bit is good for the soul.

Nah, I'm fine...I never dug into too deeply on this. Not like I had a map out or anything. I'm just gassed from January recap/February preview I did yesterday, all the while enduring a busy day at work. I wanted to go into vivid detail because it was an absolute clinic in seasonal forecasting.