Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

With all these lows(fake or real?), we may see a situation where modeling will decide to blow up/focus on one, and ride it up the coast, after all the other appendages/convection exits east…so it may be a situation where it’s delayed, but not ultimately denied. That is a possibility. 

Thats been my thinking.. if we get that out of the way or weaker it might work

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Kind of what we’ve been mentioning. It’s a winter hurricane so it’s going to do that . Just depends how close it can pass 

I see that, but honestly I thought it was the opposite. Won’t a really wound up low with closed off centers be less expansive as it collapses onto itself?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Thats been my thinking.. if we get that out of the way or weaker it might work

Exactly

I still think the models are focusing on the convection to the east.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Kind of what we’ve been mentioning. It’s a winter hurricane so it’s going to do that . Just depends how close it can pass 

Are we sure this is still this powerhouse of a system? It seems with all these other lows and what not…it’s robbing the potential for whatever low does seem to become the primary storm so to speak?  This is a mess…I have a feeling this becomes something completely different than what we all were expecting. Whether that helps or hurts SNE, remains to be seen.
 

But most of us are out of the game anyway, as it looks now, so let’s morph this into something else, and take our chances? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

I see that, but honestly I thought it was the opposite. Won’t a really wound up low with closed off centers be less expansive as it collapses onto itself?

That’s why I’m so confused at these posts. Look at the gradient. Wherever it is. I don’t see anything other a massive precip field moving over the region.

It’s a pretty narrow area, for those that get into it. Some of these runs show like an inch for Boston and foot for the cape. That doesn’t scream broad circulation to me 

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

The NAM would probably have a big band further west.. Kev FTW? 

I actually agree with this sentiment ...wrt to just this 12z run, sure -

The system's close 531 dm actually encases the whole region with some E component at that 500 mb initiated.  The QPF paint on the actual surface chart looks dubiously broken apart. 

This is a very large system.  It's possible in fact probable that the there'll be an extended quasi CCB arc out farther than the typical size one may be used to seeing.  I mean I'm not trying to gaslight anyone into thinking but this arc could be more formed than what we are seeing here - if having the visual example helps ...

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

For the love of god please stick to weather. 
—-

I do agree that if we get this close enough there will be a western band that extends further back. I still think that part of CT is still in the game for a plowable event. I haven’t punted this one yet. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Look at the NAM 500mb starting at 60 hours (ugh, I know).  It is trying to create a second UL over eastern WV up into PA.  Absolutely not modelled anywhere until now...

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That’s why I’m so confused at these posts. Look at the gradient. Wherever it is. I don’t see anything other a massive precip field moving over the region.

It’s a pretty narrow area, for those that get into it. Some of these runs show like an inch for Boston and foot for the cape. That doesn’t scream broad circulation to me 

Well there is a high percentage of weenies opining in here(including myself)currently, so take with a grain of salt… lol

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I actually agree with this sentiment ...wrt to just this 12z run, sure -

The system's close 531 dm actually encases the whole region with some E component at that 500 mb initiated.  The QPF paint on the actual surface chart looks dubiously broken apart. 

This is a very large system.  It's possible in fact probable that the there'll be an extended quasi CCB arc out farther than the typical size one may be used to seeing.  I mean I'm not trying to gaslight anyone into thinking but this arc could be more formed than what we are seeing here - if having the visual example helps ...

 

 

Yea I agree with this. More likely than not given the mid level proximity.

i also agree this is an “advisory level something” but disappointing given the potential.

[jbenedet]

The real problem is the trailing clippah which is dampening - “kicker”

 

I don’t see any other issues. That’s the problem.

[dendrite]

Let’s keep it to weather or lack thereof. 

[SouthCoastMA]

12z ICON is slight improvement. stronger low, tick nw

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

12z ICON is slight improvement. stronger low, tick nw

Is it a cleaner look? Or Does it have all the appendages and other lows all over the joint? 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Is it a cleaner look? Or Does it have all the appendages and other lows all over the joint? 

Still a clean whiff for everyone outside of the cape

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

12z ICON is slight improvement. stronger low, tick nw

Very close. It then goes ENE from here.

[Kitz Craver]

Slight NW tick I guess

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Is it a cleaner look? Or Does it have all the appendages and other lows all over the joint? 

yes to latter. Just a stronger storm and slightly better positioned trough

[SouthCoastMA]

And the RGEM is meh. whole trough structure a bit east 

[SouthCoastMA]

Giving me confidence of seeing a move SE by 12z Euro. 

[dryslot]

Looks like i haven't missed much, Still looks like mainly a region whiff, Just a lot of interference.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

yes to latter. Just a stronger storm and slightly better positioned trough

Too bad, cuz that’s what’s screwing the pooch here unfortunately. It’s chasing all that junk. 

[Wxbear25]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The real problem is the trailing clippah which is dampening - “kicker”

 

I don’t see any other issues. That’s the problem.

Gonna have to disagree with you there, its mostly about that front-running stuff, IMO.

You can keep the kicker exactly the same, if you can better incorporate the stuff around/north of the Bahamas into the general circulation instead of allowing it to stretch the circulation and flatten heights ahead of it, you'd be dealing with a massive storm much closer to the Delmarva.

The way its modeled now, that front-running stuff is creating the weakness that the ULL escapes northeastward through

The runs that showed hits and or very-close misses all share the characteristic that they orient that energy more meridionally than zonally

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Reggie ticked east. Life support alert activated…

[JKEisMan]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Reggie ticked east. Life support alert activated…

On the other hand the Rufus ticked west, I call it a wash. Haha

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The real problem is the trailing clippah which is dampening - “kicker”

 

I don’t see any other issues. That’s the problem.

And the low to the east of the main low 

[MJO812]

We would of had a big snowstorm on our hands if H5 low would have been further north instead of near the Southern Mid Atlantic. They will be seeing a nice snowstorm with strong winds ( wouldnt be shocked to see blizzard warnings) 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Reggie ticked east. Life support alert activated…

It’s been lol…we need a defibrillator now. 

[dendrite]

Squash city. That W-E ribbon of vorticity is basically a 500mb front…NE flow above it and W flow south of it.

The end of the PV lobe/trough/vortmax tries to dig, curl, and amplify but it just can’t recover enough to make the system significantly affect us at our lat/long. If we didn’t get that little extra shitstreak dropping south over Maine I think there would be a better ridging response over New England and that vort may dug off the Carolinas instead. 
It’s almost looks like that extra suppression forces the angular momentum to dig it further south. But maybe that’s just weenie physics to my naked eyes  

[Kitz Craver]

Poop.