ineedsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: With all these lows(fake or real?), we may see a situation where modeling will decide to blow up/focus on one, and ride it up the coast, after all the other appendages/convection exits east…so it may be a situation where it’s delayed, but not ultimately denied. That is a possibility. Thats been my thinking.. if we get that out of the way or weaker it might work 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Kind of what we’ve been mentioning. It’s a winter hurricane so it’s going to do that . Just depends how close it can pass I see that, but honestly I thought it was the opposite. Won’t a really wound up low with closed off centers be less expansive as it collapses onto itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Thats been my thinking.. if we get that out of the way or weaker it might work Exactly I still think the models are focusing on the convection to the east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Kind of what we’ve been mentioning. It’s a winter hurricane so it’s going to do that . Just depends how close it can pass Are we sure this is still this powerhouse of a system? It seems with all these other lows and what not…it’s robbing the potential for whatever low does seem to become the primary storm so to speak? This is a mess…I have a feeling this becomes something completely different than what we all were expecting. Whether that helps or hurts SNE, remains to be seen. But most of us are out of the game anyway, as it looks now, so let’s morph this into something else, and take our chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said: I see that, but honestly I thought it was the opposite. Won’t a really wound up low with closed off centers be less expansive as it collapses onto itself? That’s why I’m so confused at these posts. Look at the gradient. Wherever it is. I don’t see anything other a massive precip field moving over the region. It’s a pretty narrow area, for those that get into it. Some of these runs show like an inch for Boston and foot for the cape. That doesn’t scream broad circulation to me 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: The NAM would probably have a big band further west.. Kev FTW? I actually agree with this sentiment ...wrt to just this 12z run, sure - The system's close 531 dm actually encases the whole region with some E component at that 500 mb initiated. The QPF paint on the actual surface chart looks dubiously broken apart. This is a very large system. It's possible in fact probable that the there'll be an extended quasi CCB arc out farther than the typical size one may be used to seeing. I mean I'm not trying to gaslight anyone into thinking but this arc could be more formed than what we are seeing here - if having the visual example helps ... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 For the love of god please stick to weather. —- I do agree that if we get this close enough there will be a western band that extends further back. I still think that part of CT is still in the game for a plowable event. I haven’t punted this one yet. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Look at the NAM 500mb starting at 60 hours (ugh, I know). It is trying to create a second UL over eastern WV up into PA. Absolutely not modelled anywhere until now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That’s why I’m so confused at these posts. Look at the gradient. Wherever it is. I don’t see anything other a massive precip field moving over the region. It’s a pretty narrow area, for those that get into it. Some of these runs show like an inch for Boston and foot for the cape. That doesn’t scream broad circulation to me Well there is a high percentage of weenies opining in here(including myself)currently, so take with a grain of salt… lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I actually agree with this sentiment ...wrt to just this 12z run, sure - The system's close 531 dm actually encases the whole region with some E component at that 500 mb initiated. The QPF paint on the actual surface chart looks dubiously broken apart. This is a very large system. It's possible in fact probable that the there'll be an extended quasi CCB arc out farther than the typical size one may be used to seeing. I mean I'm not trying to gaslight anyone into thinking but this arc could be more formed than what we are seeing here - if having the visual example helps ... Yea I agree with this. More likely than not given the mid level proximity. i also agree this is an “advisory level something” but disappointing given the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 The real problem is the trailing clippah which is dampening - “kicker” I don’t see any other issues. That’s the problem. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Let’s keep it to weather or lack thereof. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12z ICON is slight improvement. stronger low, tick nw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: 12z ICON is slight improvement. stronger low, tick nw Is it a cleaner look? Or Does it have all the appendages and other lows all over the joint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Is it a cleaner look? Or Does it have all the appendages and other lows all over the joint? Still a clean whiff for everyone outside of the cape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: 12z ICON is slight improvement. stronger low, tick nw Very close. It then goes ENE from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Slight NW tick I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Is it a cleaner look? Or Does it have all the appendages and other lows all over the joint? yes to latter. Just a stronger storm and slightly better positioned trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 And the RGEM is meh. whole trough structure a bit east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Giving me confidence of seeing a move SE by 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Looks like i haven't missed much, Still looks like mainly a region whiff, Just a lot of interference. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: yes to latter. Just a stronger storm and slightly better positioned trough Too bad, cuz that’s what’s screwing the pooch here unfortunately. It’s chasing all that junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The real problem is the trailing clippah which is dampening - “kicker” I don’t see any other issues. That’s the problem. Gonna have to disagree with you there, its mostly about that front-running stuff, IMO. You can keep the kicker exactly the same, if you can better incorporate the stuff around/north of the Bahamas into the general circulation instead of allowing it to stretch the circulation and flatten heights ahead of it, you'd be dealing with a massive storm much closer to the Delmarva. The way its modeled now, that front-running stuff is creating the weakness that the ULL escapes northeastward through The runs that showed hits and or very-close misses all share the characteristic that they orient that energy more meridionally than zonally 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Reggie ticked east. Life support alert activated… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Reggie ticked east. Life support alert activated… On the other hand the Rufus ticked west, I call it a wash. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 17 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The real problem is the trailing clippah which is dampening - “kicker” I don’t see any other issues. That’s the problem. And the low to the east of the main low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 We would of had a big snowstorm on our hands if H5 low would have been further north instead of near the Southern Mid Atlantic. They will be seeing a nice snowstorm with strong winds ( wouldnt be shocked to see blizzard warnings) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Reggie ticked east. Life support alert activated… It’s been lol…we need a defibrillator now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Squash city. That W-E ribbon of vorticity is basically a 500mb front…NE flow above it and W flow south of it. The end of the PV lobe/trough/vortmax tries to dig, curl, and amplify but it just can’t recover enough to make the system significantly affect us at our lat/long. If we didn’t get that little extra shitstreak dropping south over Maine I think there would be a better ridging response over New England and that vort may dug off the Carolinas instead. It’s almost looks like that extra suppression forces the angular momentum to dig it further south. But maybe that’s just weenie physics to my naked eyes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Poop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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