Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

You're in a good spot for this one.

you don't want to be in a Jackpot zone 5 days out

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

you don't want to be in a Jackpot zone 5 days out

He's not now but closer to the coast will be best for this one. Just like 2015

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Growing up during the age of Miller A's, I will say this...  Some of the biggest busts I've witnessed and studied were intense Miller A storms.  Error / bust potential is often much less when dealing with Miller B events.  Given the historic look of the absurdly digging 500 mb trough, I would be very wary of this escaping too far east?

While history making events are always possible, that 500 mb evolution is beyond extreme!  If it develops as modeled, then it's one for the record books.  I think it would be wise to assume its (500 mb) intensity is not going to be as intense as modeled. 

Lots to consider; where will the primary form, does it jump / reform well to the east, or does it get tugged westward, stall, loop, ???

Thumb through the Kocin book(s) and you will find examples of Miller A's that were expected to graze southeastern SNE, and to everyone's surprise, ended up throwing heavy snow back into eastern NY?  Not saying this one will, but the evolution of the 500 mb level tells me this is not a simple escape east situation.

I think a more western track evolves on modeling tomorrow.   

  

 

Absolutely agreed.

[Kitz Craver]

But it’s like you said, if it’s occluded way south and wobbling/rotting, even with a nice track it will leave much to be desired 

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

But it’s like you said, if it’s occluded way south and wobbling/rotting, even with a nice track it will leave much to be desired 

Still plenty of time.   

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Still plenty of time.   

We don't want a perfect hit at this point, its downhill from there.

[MJO812]

Gefs more NW

[Torch Tiger]

this has the beginnings of an E-W regional battle

[dryslot]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

this has the beginnings of an E-W regional battle

Only when people gaslight and instill one.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

this has the beginnings of an E-W regional battle

Someone needs to AI a pic of Scooter rounding up Wolf pelts. 

[JACKASS]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

this has the beginnings of an E-W regional battle

Not seeing East lose.

[Typhoon Tip]

52 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Growing up during the age of Miller A's, I will say this...  Some of the biggest busts I've witnessed and studied were intense Miller A storms.  Error / bust potential is often much less when dealing with Miller B events.  Given the historic look of the absurdly digging 500 mb trough, I would be very wary of this escaping too far east?

While history making events are always possible, that 500 mb evolution is beyond extreme!  If it develops as modeled, then it's one for the record books.  I think it would be wise to assume its (500 mb) intensity is not going to be as intense as modeled. 

Lots to consider; where will the primary form, does it jump / reform well to the east, or does it get tugged westward, stall, loop, ???

Thumb through the Kocin book(s) and you will find examples of Miller A's that were expected to graze southeastern SNE, and to everyone's surprise, ended up throwing heavy snow back into eastern NY?  Not saying this one will, but the evolution of the 500 mb level tells me this is not a simple escape east situation.

I think a more western track evolves on modeling tomorrow.   

  

 

In my 30 years of modeling I've never seen a dam core plum below 516 at Cape Hatteras...  I challenge anyone to find one.  Kocin&Ucellini to NCEP's Library, I'm will to wager we are close to or at a record if/should that take place.  

I agree, ... the idea of moving something of that accord then bodily ENE through the perennial height wall of the west Atlantic is suspect in principle.  There's much to question wrt to the models for doing that.  Can it happen... rules are meant to be broke, but there's also a reason why that particular standard of behavior is very seldom seen.  Just for one ... what's going to happen when that implosion in deep heights teases the b-c ambience extending across Gulf/land interface region out to E of GA/FL?  The explosion that is not there but really should be.. would impose just an incredible convective feedback latency potential.  We have to sit here and imagine, within constrained of learning and experience, that this faux missing component ( presently...) would foster the west correction on its own.  No model seems to even be doing anything with that potential.  Very suss. 

Another bugaboo for me... I have all kinds of problem with a ridge anchored over Idaho, and these models taking an already stretched Rossby signature, ...and straining my believability to even more tension by stretching into something like this...   Wanna hear something funny?  I mused that idea yesterday, 'gee I hope this doesn't end up over ALB'.  

Not happenin'    

As an afterthought, with a west vestigial -NAO going on, that also doesn't lend to longitudinal motion escaping the M/A latitudes. 

[Torch Tiger]

also you have to think that even that with a "graze" track that clips ENE, portions of the S shore to eventually Cape Cod would see lots of OEH/if not ocean-effect banding on that rounding NE to  N to NNW flow

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just now, JACKASS said:

Not seeing East lose.

They're heavy favorites right now.

[Damage In Tolland]

Heaviest will be East of River but west will get plenty 

[The 4 Seasons]

Latest National Blend run fwiw. V5 is further SE but still clips SE MA with .5-1.25

Big Bump NW on the 18Z GEFS, theres also a lot more of a spread NW of the mean this time. 

[ORH_wxman]

GEFS mean is a huge storm for eastern folks and a moderate storm even for western NE. 

Edit: 4seasons beat me to it

[Damage In Tolland]

Here we come 

[ORH_wxman]

Would be nice to get the Euro suite on board. Need a 100 mile bump west on it. 

[CoastalWx]

That's a biggun on the GEFS.

[HoarfrostHubb]

At that approach vector, this far out, it would take almost nothing to shift it NW

just watch for any sort of kicker though. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

lol I was just posting maps too you guys beat me to it .. that’s not just a bump northwest that’s a 15-20” mean at day 5 for SEMASS. 5-10” to ENY. GFS has burnt us quite a bit this winter in the medium range so I’m very wary. But as we’ve said we would expect a strong Miller A to move NW as we get closer so we shall see what the other guidance says.

[Torch Tiger]

hope this thing amps up later, and deep into LI or BID.  Black hole over the S coast. That's what we all wanted

[JACKASS]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

hope this thing amps up later, and deep into LI or BID.  Black hole over the S coast. That's what we all wanted

Still think this one's more impressive than the last?

[CT Rain]

Would be great for any model other than the GFS/GEFS to get on board.

[MuddyWx]

Model war

[dryslot]

Lot of folks would be happy with the 18z GEFS.

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

Still think this one's more impressive than the last?

I am more down with the earlier phase - party time MA

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

hope this thing amps up later, and deep into LI or BID.  Black hole over the S coast. That's what we all wanted

I want ozone over Orleans

[JACKASS]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I want ozone over Orleans

Want in one hand....