The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

BRAD P posted 10PM update.  He mentions that some of the CAMS are struggling with initiation but blossoming.  He also says he was one of the first ones to mention the DRY SLOT.  

What we're seeing on the CAMs isn't a dry slot so much as a complete failure of the coastal to do, well anything.  Not sure what is going on there.

[Aleksey]

I said that after last weekend, and I got reeled back in. 

Man same!! I am definitely cool with that after this weekend though and I truly believe this is our best and last chance this winter. I’m fine with that if it verifies. We still have about 5 weeks left, but I expect February to be a lot more mild and dry. This January will go down as one of the coldest and most wintry state wide, on record. The last 2 years have definitely been great for us. 2 storms last year, and 3 Saturdays in a row where all of GA has seen some form of winter weather. That hasn’t happened before. Definitely a January of records for GA.


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[cbmclean]

The regionals are much more aggressive with the coastal and as a result have much more QPF from Raleigh East.  All we can do now is hope the CAMs are completely lost in that regard.

[PackGrad05]

ALLAN says the high-res models may be on to something and if it isn't snowing in Raleigh tomorrow morning, then the LOW BUST RISK is HIGH

[SEwakenosnowforu]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

What we're seeing on the CAMs isn't a dry slot so much as a complete failure of the coastal to do, well anything.  Not sure what is going on there.

Yeah...it makes no sense...the coastal is only throwing moisture on a couple of those models back to hwy 17

[AGardiner87]

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/17rXFTbSfx/?mibextid=wwXIfr
 

Brad P’s latest!

[wasnow215]

You guys need to chill down here. The stinking NAM has changed every six hours. It's a horrible model especially as you get closer to an event. It does not handle these types of events well at all! This is not the weenie in me I don't have any stake in the game I'm up here in Richmond,Va.
 

It's pretty much go time now. Nowcasting and globals- that's it stick with those. 

Super jealous of your historic storm but rooting for you like crazy because I believe in the laws of sowing and reaping lol!!

[KyleEverett]

I will note a lot of the models, including the Euro I believe have shown the double maxima scenario with upstate SC and coastal NC winning, so if RDU is on the lower side it wasn't an impossible outcome, just one people didn't want to see.

[clt_25]

16 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

ICON

As one of the few Charlotte area natives, if this happens it will be huge. Then we can look forward to it again in 2046!

[PackGrad05]

ALLAN says CONGRATS CLT this is your storm.

[Regan]

11 minutes ago, RaleighNC said:

Maze just backed way off

But the little young dude said they aren’t changing the map again. 

[USCG RS]

So with ULL slowing, I wonder if the CAMs are putting that together with a very dry h5 and shearing this out. We already discussed the h5 being dry but h7 being high with regard to RH. 

But.. I do wonder if the CAMs see the ULL as too slow.. But that wouldn't make synoptic sense because you can see how it's already affecting and being affected by the storm. 

[Snowncanes]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

So with ULL slowing, I wonder if the CAMs are putting thst together with a very dry h5 and shearing this out. We already discussed the h5 being dry but h7 being high with regard to RH. 

But.. I do wonder if the CAMs see the ULL as too slow.. But that wouldn't make synoptic sense because you can see how it's already affecting and being affected by the storm. 

I forget which one it was, maybe 3k nam, but I’m pretty sure one of the models actually did shear out the ULL on the coast. Thats actually a really good point.

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, KyleEverett said:

I will note a lot of the models, including the Euro I believe have shown the double maxima scenario with upstate SC and coastal NC winning, so if RDU is on the lower side it wasn't an impossible outcome, just one people didn't want to see.

Not sure anyone can deny at this point there will be a relative minimum in the center of NC.  The question is will there be a complete collapse of the coastal so virtually 0 qpf gets thrown into the entire NE quadrant of NC.  That's a complete shocker for me and I'm going to have to see proof if anybody comes out after the fact and says they saw it coming.

[Regan]

Seeing broad and contradicting ideas about inches and timing from professionals. Alan says if it doesn’t start in central by morning to worry and yet others are saying afternoon start but could still see 3in or so. 

[PackGrad05]

All the professionals are saying the same thing.  They are all saying there is the POSSIBILITY of a bust and a MINIMUM in central NC.  But so far nobody has the guts to put 0-1" on a map.

[NCSU_Pi]

7 minutes ago, KyleEverett said:

I will note a lot of the models, including the Euro I believe have shown the double maxima scenario with upstate SC and coastal NC winning, so if RDU is on the lower side it wasn't an impossible outcome, just one people didn't want to see.

For a while there, there was some slightly tongue-in-cheek whinging along the lines of "oh no, I'm getting five inches when a bunch of clown maps said 18!" from the Triangle folks after those earlier trends. I think it was at least slightly put on for humor and exaggerated for effect.

Now, I think we're wondering whether we see more than an inch, and it's less funny.

(Yes, I'll see myself out to the Cliff Diving thread)

[NorthHillsWx]

Man, charlotte looks locked in. Congrats to you folks 

[SouthWake33]

Does anyone else think it would be refreshing to hear a tv met say “I don’t know how much snow we’re going to get. It’s beyond our ability to predict this. Be prepared for the possibility of accumulating snow and disruption for a few days”. Why do we need all of this back and forth over the number of inches??


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[UnionCountyNCWX]

39 minutes ago, DeltaPilot said:

Im gonna ask ONE MORE TIME. Please if you are posting models, can you post the map for the entire Southeast. I live just off the left side of all these clown maps being posted, and in this event we are on the western edge of the precip shield. I'd like to SEE how and where the models think some of these bands may set up on the western edges. i know they arent 100% accurate, but seeing that modeled gives us a better feel for the possibility we may see some snow. For the last week, the maps getting posted mostly show SC/NC/VA. There are a bunch of us who are in or just south of ATL and these maps are useless for us. I come here for the expertise, the experience, and the maps/models which I dont have access to. Hope you guys can help a fellow weenie out. TIA!

Many sites have access to it for free. Don't force others to post what you want to see.

[btownheel]

All the professionals are saying the same thing.  They are all saying there is the POSSIBILITY of a bust and a MINIMUM in central NC.  But so far nobody has the guts to put 0-1" on a map.

Your almost childlike enthusiasm to come on here for days/weeks straight and excitedly post the absolute worst case possible scenarios (at least 3 times in a short time frame) every time is…….super weird. I guess whatever gets your jollies…


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[SouthWake33]

All the professionals are saying the same thing.  They are all saying there is the POSSIBILITY of a bust and a MINIMUM in central NC.  But so far nobody has the guts to put 0-1" on a map.

All the professionals? How about the group at NWS? Or Don S?


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[Upstate Tiger]

[UnionCountyNCWX]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Man, charlotte looks locked in. Congrats to you folks 

Im not budging on my forecast for here of 3-5 until the ground is white. Still can go wrong. But hoping for the best!!!!

[knowledgeispwr]

5 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said:

Does anyone else think it would be refreshing to hear a tv met say “I don’t know how much snow we’re going to get. It’s beyond our ability to predict this. Be prepared for the possibility of accumulating snow and disruption for a few days”. Why do we need all of this back and forth over the number of inches??


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To be honest, I've seen local mets in the Triad area say as much, more or less. They put out predictions, but have been saying that it could be much lower or higher for various reasons.

[lilj4425]

40 minutes ago, UpStateCAD said:

Becoming clear greenville, Pickens, and oconee counties in SC upstate are in a storm minima area; and Charlotte is in the bullseye once again. 

Upstate looks fine at least for a few inches. Raleigh is where I would be concerned.

[NEGA_Dawg]

Some of you need this. 

[USCG RS]

9 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said:

Does anyone else think it would be refreshing to hear a tv met say “I don’t know how much snow we’re going to get. It’s beyond our ability to predict this. Be prepared for the possibility of accumulating snow and disruption for a few days”. Why do we need all of this back and forth over the number of inches??


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I have this fight with OEM alot. 

[andrew29649]

3 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Reach! That would be an earlier than expected onset for the southern upstate of SC

[Regan]

00z rgem looks good