timnc910 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Can some one elaborate on what this is. Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, timnc910 said: Can some one elaborate on what this is. Thanks in advance Just a snow accumulation forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriadTom_wxm Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Keep the mojo mojoing. Battleground area bound to be around triangle with maybe a dream set up east of triangle. However, I could see battleground area shifting slightly more NW based on overnight changes in runs. Snow on top of the existing ice in Triad and then refreezing should be fun. Good luck and be safe everyone! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 hours ago, Solution Man said: Use the short range now, it picks up better on banding. You may ask why am I in here. I have to bring my wife to Duke for treatment this Monday, but will leave today and stay in Raleigh with friends. Praying for your wife 51 minutes ago, ILM2714 said: Please, pardon my ignorance and question but these recent runs seem to show Wilmington being in a dry area or somehow missing the precip that is circling. Should we be less focused on the “banding” now and expect the area to covered in a similar fashion or is the concern growing that we may get squeezed out? This storm always has had the potential for banding. In this case, short range models will begin to pick up on this. In addition, where banding sets up will also allow for subsidence on each side, or the sinking of air. This causes drying which means that areas next to high totals could have much lower totals themselves. This is a common feature of very strong mid latitude storms and nearly impossible to predict. That withstanding, global models (with less resolution) will normally smooth out the QPF forecast, whereas short range models will attempt to showcase where these bands set up. This is because globals have a lower resolution and therefore the algorithm will not be able to as readily differentiate banding and this will smooth, or average, out the precipitation forecast over its grid (boxes of resolution, ie 12km, 3km resolution, etc etc). Short range models - or CAMS - have a higher resolution and will thus alter precipitation forecasts more, which is where you usually see the qpf (precip forecast) changing. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 It is hard to believe we are nearing the start of this event. May the odds be ever in our favor. I am ready to go mobile if I have to in order to get into the FGEN band if it decides to miss my area. 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthboundYank Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, eyewall said: It is hard to believe we are nearing the start of this event. May the odds be ever in our favor. I am ready to go mobile if I have to in order to get into the FGEN band if it decides to miss my area. I personally appreciate your continued inputs, comments and obs...please keep 'em coming, if you have the time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Praying for your wife This storm always has had the potential for banding. In this case, short range models will begin to pick up on this. In addition, where banding sets up will also allow for subsidence on each side, or the sinking of air. This causes drying which means that areas next to high totals could have much lower totals themselves. This is a common feature of very strong mid latitude storms and nearly impossible to predict. That withstanding, global models (with less resolution) will normally smooth out the QPF forecast, whereas short range models will attempt to showcase where these bands set up. This is because globals have a lower resolution and therefore the algorithm will not be able to as readily differentiate banding and this will smooth, or average, out the precipitation forecast over its grid. It forecast area. Short range models - or CAMS - have a higher resolution and will thus local precipitation forecasts more, which is where you usually see the qpf (precip forecast) changing. Thank you brother. Looking forward to riding this one out with you. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 12z FV3 it’s nice for Western North Carolina. That upper level low just sits and pivots. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orange county Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I assumme some heavy banding occurs We will know where when it occurs.............. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 NAM looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 thru 33 she's already dropped 9" on Raleigh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6 minutes ago, JoshM said: 12z FV3 it’s nice for Western North Carolina. That upper level low just sits and pivots. Really good run for the western areas... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Some charts in advance of the upcoming snowstorm/blizzard: Should the storm bring 6" or more snow to both Wilmington, NC and Norfolk, it would become only the third storm on record to bring 6" or more to both locations. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 thru 39 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 The NAM has been so inconsistent it is hard to take seriously 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 SREF Plumes for RDU have the median at 12.5" 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Most of NC and SC still getting snow on the NAM at 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 RRFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTWolf Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 So ILM between 1-12 inches. Got it. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 thru 45 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Droessl Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 5 minutes ago, wake4est said: SREF Plumes for RDU have the median at 12.5" 15/26 members are above that mean as well, with no crazy outliers at 34" or something silly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3K - Still snowing at the coast but severely different then 12k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 NAM 3K much different. Pretty much 0 for Wake through 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, Droessl said: 15/26 members are above that mean as well, with no crazy outliers at 34" or something silly. Tight cluster around that 15" snow mark 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Doesn't make sense for the 3K NAM to be that different than 12K. Yes, I know it is higher resolution, but that's way too much of a difference. So either the 3K is way too low or the 12K is way too high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Needless to say, I don’t think the nam has a clue where the banding is going to set up 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 Now can we toss the NAM? It’s all over the damn place. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure1 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Looks as if the 3k has some issues. Way too different than 12k, and most other model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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