The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[timnc910]

5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Can some one elaborate on what this is. Thanks in advance 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

2 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

Can some one elaborate on what this is. Thanks in advance 

Just a snow accumulation forecast 

[TriadTom_wxm]

Keep the mojo mojoing. Battleground area bound to be around triangle with maybe a dream set up east of triangle. However, I could see battleground area shifting slightly more NW based on overnight changes in runs. Snow on top of the existing ice in Triad and then refreezing should be fun. Good luck and be safe everyone!

[USCG RS]

2 hours ago, Solution Man said:

Use the short range now, it picks up better on banding. You may ask why am I in here. I have to bring my wife to Duke for treatment this Monday, but will leave today and stay in Raleigh with friends.

Praying for your wife

51 minutes ago, ILM2714 said:

Please, pardon my ignorance and question but these recent runs seem to show Wilmington being in a dry area or somehow missing the precip that is circling. Should we be less focused on the “banding” now and expect the area to covered in a similar fashion or is the concern growing that we may get squeezed out? 

This storm always has had the potential for banding. In this case, short range models will begin to pick up on this. In addition, where banding sets up will also allow for subsidence on each side, or the sinking of air. This causes drying which means that areas next to high totals could have much lower totals themselves. This is a common feature of very strong mid latitude storms and nearly impossible to predict. 

That withstanding, global models (with less resolution) will normally smooth out the QPF forecast, whereas short range models will attempt to showcase where these bands set up. This is because globals have a lower resolution and therefore the algorithm will not be able to as readily differentiate banding and this will smooth, or average, out the precipitation forecast over its grid (boxes of resolution, ie 12km, 3km resolution, etc etc). Short range models - or CAMS - have a higher resolution and will thus alter precipitation forecasts more, which is where you usually see the qpf (precip forecast) changing. 

[eyewall]

It is hard to believe we are nearing the start of this event. May the odds be ever in our favor. I am ready to go mobile if I have to in order to get into the FGEN band if it decides to miss my area. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[SouthboundYank]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

It is hard to believe we are nearing the start of this event. May the odds be ever in our favor. I am ready to go mobile if I have to in order to get into the FGEN band if it decides to miss my area. 

I personally appreciate your continued inputs, comments and obs...please keep 'em coming, if you have the time.   

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Praying for your wife

This storm always has had the potential for banding. In this case, short range models will begin to pick up on this. In addition, where banding sets up will also allow for subsidence on each side, or the sinking of air. This causes drying which means that areas next to high totals could have much lower totals themselves. This is a common feature of very strong mid latitude storms and nearly impossible to predict. 

That withstanding, global models (with less resolution) will normally smooth out the QPF forecast, whereas short range models will attempt to showcase where these bands set up. This is because globals have a lower resolution and therefore the algorithm will not be able to as readily differentiate banding and this will smooth, or average, out the precipitation forecast over its grid. It forecast area. Short range models - or CAMS - have a higher resolution and will thus local precipitation forecasts more, which is where you usually see the qpf (precip forecast) changing. 

Thank you brother. Looking forward to riding this one out with you. 

[JoshM]

12z FV3 it’s nice for Western North Carolina. That upper level low just sits and pivots.

[Orange county]

I assumme some heavy banding occurs

We will know where when it occurs..............

[wake4est]

NAM looks good.

[wake4est]

thru 33 she's already dropped 9" on Raleigh

[Upstate Tiger]

6 minutes ago, JoshM said:

12z FV3 it’s nice for Western North Carolina. That upper level low just sits and pivots.

Really good run for the western areas...

[donsutherland1]

Some charts in advance of the upcoming snowstorm/blizzard:

Should the storm bring 6" or more snow to both Wilmington, NC and Norfolk, it would become only the third storm on record to bring 6" or more to both locations.

[wake4est]

thru 39

[olafminesaw]

The NAM has been so inconsistent it is hard to take seriously 

[wake4est]

SREF Plumes for RDU have the median at 12.5"

[Upstate Tiger]

Most of NC and SC still getting snow on the NAM at 39.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

RRFS

[CLTWolf]

So ILM between 1-12 inches. Got it.

[Upstate Tiger]

[wake4est]

thru 45

[Droessl]

5 minutes ago, wake4est said:

SREF Plumes for RDU have the median at 12.5"

15/26 members are above that mean as well, with no crazy outliers at 34" or something silly. 

[Ravens94]

3K - Still snowing at the coast but severely different then 12k

[PackGrad05]

NAM 3K much different.  Pretty much 0 for Wake through 33.

[CaryWx]

2 minutes ago, Droessl said:

15/26 members are above that mean as well, with no crazy outliers at 34" or something silly. 

Tight cluster around that 15" snow mark

[PackGrad05]

Doesn't make sense for the 3K NAM to be that different than 12K.  Yes, I know it is higher resolution, but that's way too much of a difference.  So either the 3K is way too low or the 12K is way too high.

[JoshM]

Needless to say, I don’t think the nam has a clue where the banding is going to set up

[lilj4425]

Now can we toss the NAM? It’s all over the damn place.

[Lowpressure1]

Looks as if the 3k has some issues. Way too different than 12k, and most other model guidance.