The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[sarcean]

1 hour ago, Spidyr2k said:

Wondering when the last time all of NC was under a WSW?  I don't remember it. 

• January 21-23, 2022: A massive system brought measurable snow to almost every corner of the state, including the typically snow-free southeastern coast.
• December 25-26, 2010: A historic "White Christmas" event where all 100 counties reported snowfall, with a foot or more in several regions.

[AirNelson39]

RAH at just before 2 am dropped the accumulation totals quite a bit and…
 
now models are coming in quite nice for the triangle. 

What are they a day behind!?

[CentralNC]

Since we are basically at nowcast time, are we gonna have a storm obs thread started?

[JoshM]

Started obs thread 

 

 

[PeeDeeWx]

This one feels different, no??

[wake4est]

It really does. Seeing the NAM and HRRR dropping bombs on the day the event starts is insane. 

[ILM2714]

Please, pardon my ignorance and question but these recent runs seem to show Wilmington being in a dry area or somehow missing the precip that is circling. Should we be less focused on the “banding” now and expect the area to covered in a similar fashion or is the concern growing that we may get squeezed out? 

[olafminesaw]

This map aligns with my thinking right now. I would also cut totals along the SE NC immediate coast

[neverSnowsLCSC]

More and more QPF starting to slowly trickle into the lowcountry. NAM 3km shows 6-7" around here. Expecting 1-3, so I'll be pleasantly surprised if we get any more than that.

Good luck everyone!

[Rsheely88]

12z HRR not looking as juicy as the 6z did


.

[olafminesaw]

The biggest thing that will help Raleigh is if the stall of the coastal occurs south of cape lookout. Will give a chance for banding to build in. Of course, the closer to the coast the better

[mstr4j]

19 minutes ago, wake4est said:

It really does. Seeing the NAM and HRRR dropping bombs on the day the event starts is insane. 

It's just one run - but this run is a killer heartbreak for the Upstate of sc - I mean absolute killer.  Losing around 0.4 qpf is a ton, considering at least 0.1 of what's there will be virga.  Ouch!! I need @lilj4425 to bring us back some MOJO!  Lets go baby!!!!

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, Rsheely88 said:

12z HRR not looking as juicy as the 6z did


.

Looks good for Raleigh to the coast, drier for the NW Piedmont

[GunBlade]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

The biggest thing that will help Raleigh is if the stall of the coastal occurs south of cape lookout. Will give a chance for banding to build in. Of course, the closer to the coast the better

Getting more negative tilt too would help throw more moisture back that way and setup some great totals. 

[PeeDeeWx]

At this point, is it fair to say that most only need to worry about the dreaded dry slot set ups? 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Getting more negative tilt too would help throw more moisture back that way and setup some great totals. 

Yeah and I think less moisture overall on the latest HRRR is in response to the overall trend towards more positive tilt

[Regan]

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

Yeah and I think less moisture overall on the latest HRRR is in response to the overall trend towards more positive tilt

Someone reach out to Tennessee and tell the people there to go outside with their vacuums and make this sucker go negative!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

That was a legendary inside 24 hrs NAM run. Hopefully 12z holds serve 

[PackGrad05]

12Z HRRR looks amazing for central NC.  It also picks up on the "banding" nature of the convection.  
There will be localized higher amounts that it can't resolve at this time.

[ADB83]

12z HRRR still solid, less amounts but I wouldn’t complain. Also sticking to the idea that the whole state of North Carolina is going to at least cash something


.

[NorthHillsWx]

HRRR good for footprint, not amounts 

[PackGrad05]

According to data from the NC Climate Office, in the past 50 winters at RDU (December, January, February), there have only been 25 months with a total of 3" of snow or more.  That's 17%....

3" in a month (much less a single storm), is a big deal for Raleigh.

Yes, we want all want the big one, but this is Raleigh...  Gotta keep it in relative perspective.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

BAM

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

HRRR

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Now THAT is a forum wide smackdown. 

[Snow dog]

Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said:

HRRR

Its becoming clear that all the short range models are picking up on the dry slot for the Upstate SC..

[SouthboundYank]

2 hours ago, Solution Man said:

Use the short range now, it picks up better on banding. You may ask why am I in here. I have to bring my wife to Duke for treatment this Monday, but will leave today and stay in Raleigh with friends.

I remember you and always enjoyed your comments/obs from the MA sub, having lived there for the past 30+ years. I'm sorry that y'all have to be here under these circumstances (and I hope your wife is okay/improving), but hope you contribute and observe here in the SE forum while you're here. 

18 minutes ago, neverSnowsLCSC said:

More and more QPF starting to slowly trickle into the lowcountry. NAM 3km shows 6-7" around here. Expecting 1-3, so I'll be pleasantly surprised if we get any more than that.

Good luck everyone!

Yeah, have noticed that, too. On a whim, I pinged Google Gemini and its "Weather next 2.0" wx AI tool on the latest models and it produced this. Seems mostly common sense, with exceptions that Horry County has been upgraded to a warning and not a watch: