sarcean Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Spidyr2k said: Wondering when the last time all of NC was under a WSW? I don't remember it. January 21-23, 2022: A massive system brought measurable snow to almost every corner of the state, including the typically snow-free southeastern coast. December 25-26, 2010: A historic "White Christmas" event where all 100 counties reported snowfall, with a foot or more in several regions. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 RAH at just before 2 am dropped the accumulation totals quite a bit and… now models are coming in quite nice for the triangle. What are they a day behind!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Since we are basically at nowcast time, are we gonna have a storm obs thread started? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Started obs thread 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeeDeeWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 This one feels different, no?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 It really does. Seeing the NAM and HRRR dropping bombs on the day the event starts is insane. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILM2714 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Please, pardon my ignorance and question but these recent runs seem to show Wilmington being in a dry area or somehow missing the precip that is circling. Should we be less focused on the “banding” now and expect the area to covered in a similar fashion or is the concern growing that we may get squeezed out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 This map aligns with my thinking right now. I would also cut totals along the SE NC immediate coast 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neverSnowsLCSC Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 More and more QPF starting to slowly trickle into the lowcountry. NAM 3km shows 6-7" around here. Expecting 1-3, so I'll be pleasantly surprised if we get any more than that. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 12z HRR not looking as juicy as the 6z did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 The biggest thing that will help Raleigh is if the stall of the coastal occurs south of cape lookout. Will give a chance for banding to build in. Of course, the closer to the coast the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mstr4j Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 19 minutes ago, wake4est said: It really does. Seeing the NAM and HRRR dropping bombs on the day the event starts is insane. It's just one run - but this run is a killer heartbreak for the Upstate of sc - I mean absolute killer. Losing around 0.4 qpf is a ton, considering at least 0.1 of what's there will be virga. Ouch!! I need @lilj4425 to bring us back some MOJO! Lets go baby!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, Rsheely88 said: 12z HRR not looking as juicy as the 6z did . Looks good for Raleigh to the coast, drier for the NW Piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, olafminesaw said: The biggest thing that will help Raleigh is if the stall of the coastal occurs south of cape lookout. Will give a chance for banding to build in. Of course, the closer to the coast the better Getting more negative tilt too would help throw more moisture back that way and setup some great totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeeDeeWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 At this point, is it fair to say that most only need to worry about the dreaded dry slot set ups? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, GunBlade said: Getting more negative tilt too would help throw more moisture back that way and setup some great totals. Yeah and I think less moisture overall on the latest HRRR is in response to the overall trend towards more positive tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, olafminesaw said: Yeah and I think less moisture overall on the latest HRRR is in response to the overall trend towards more positive tilt Someone reach out to Tennessee and tell the people there to go outside with their vacuums and make this sucker go negative! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: That was a legendary inside 24 hrs NAM run. Hopefully 12z holds serve 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 12Z HRRR looks amazing for central NC. It also picks up on the "banding" nature of the convection. There will be localized higher amounts that it can't resolve at this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 12z HRRR still solid, less amounts but I wouldn’t complain. Also sticking to the idea that the whole state of North Carolina is going to at least cash something. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 HRRR good for footprint, not amounts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 According to data from the NC Climate Office, in the past 50 winters at RDU (December, January, February), there have only been 25 months with a total of 3" of snow or more. That's 17%.... 3" in a month (much less a single storm), is a big deal for Raleigh. Yes, we want all want the big one, but this is Raleigh... Gotta keep it in relative perspective. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 BAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Now THAT is a forum wide smackdown. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said: HRRR Its becoming clear that all the short range models are picking up on the dry slot for the Upstate SC.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthboundYank Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 hours ago, Solution Man said: Use the short range now, it picks up better on banding. You may ask why am I in here. I have to bring my wife to Duke for treatment this Monday, but will leave today and stay in Raleigh with friends. I remember you and always enjoyed your comments/obs from the MA sub, having lived there for the past 30+ years. I'm sorry that y'all have to be here under these circumstances (and I hope your wife is okay/improving), but hope you contribute and observe here in the SE forum while you're here. 18 minutes ago, neverSnowsLCSC said: More and more QPF starting to slowly trickle into the lowcountry. NAM 3km shows 6-7" around here. Expecting 1-3, so I'll be pleasantly surprised if we get any more than that. Good luck everyone! Yeah, have noticed that, too. On a whim, I pinged Google Gemini and its "Weather next 2.0" wx AI tool on the latest models and it produced this. Seems mostly common sense, with exceptions that Horry County has been upgraded to a warning and not a watch: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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