The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[Regan]

5 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

My scientific explanation for the 18z Euro suite is that the European model has a personal beef with Wake County, North Carolina…and they want Wake County to know that it’s personal.


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And it wants us to talk about it over an over. I think WRAL is funding them. 

[Grayman]

5 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

I could be wrong but this might be it dropping down from Canada

Thanks, not sure why I wanted to look at it cause I don’t know what the heck I’m looking at. lol 

[RaleighNC]

10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

If the euro was true, Wake county would have the lowest amounts in the entire state. Including the coast.


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The weather dome is real. 

[ADB83]

And it wants us to talk about it over an over. I think WRAL is funding them. 

Totally agree lol


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[olafminesaw]

15 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Does anyone know when our energy might start showing up on the satellite imagery? That’s way over my pay grade, but I just wanted to see what it looked like on a water vapor.

This guy normally posts satellite analysis that are really fascinating , hopefully he does some updates soon

[AGardiner87]

https://www.facebook.com/share/1DUD6mxc6S/?mibextid=wwXIfr

[ADB83]

18z WN2 with its most aggressive run so far, but continues to concentrate the heavier precipitation field in the same general area. It’s consistent. I’ll say that.


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[Kraychav]

3 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

I get Debardelaben flashbacks if I watch now.

The Biggest Name in Weather 

[AGardiner87]

I

[Nick Esasky]

Haven’t seen much Atlanta commentary over last few hours but see some social media noise about things trending drier?  Still a chance at 1-2” in northern Atlanta metro.  

[PeeDeeWx]

A lot of chatter from local Mets in Carolina’s about an influx of dry air. Is this not factored into modeling?

[AirNelson39]

18z WN2 with its most aggressive run so far, but continues to concentrate the heavier precipitation field in the same general area. It’s consistent. I’ll say that.


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This truly might be the new king if it verifies. It’s been the most consistent of any model.

[SEwakenosnowforu]

2 minutes ago, Kraychav said:

The Biggest Name in Weather 

Have not heard that name in a while! Him and Fishel were the best when they were together!

[NYweatherguy]

2 minutes ago, Nick Esasky said:

Haven’t seen much Atlanta commentary over last few hours but see some social media noise about things trending drier?  Still a chance at 1-2” in northern Atlanta metro.  

North Gwinnett and into Hall County should see 2 or 3 inches. 

[senc30]

3 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said:

A lot of chatter from local Mets in Carolina’s about an influx of dry air. Is this not factored into modeling?

Been hearing that as well and was going to ask. 

[digital snow]

RAH maps have consistently been showing more snow than forecast. TV mets have to be conservative, and I don't pay attention to social media mets for the obvious reasons. NWS has been consistently showing a jackpot from southern pines north to alamace/orange county line. I am with y'all. The models are not spitting out those numbers for the most part, but the nws maps keep going up. When that reverses course, I will change my thinking.

I also remember a storm in early/mid 2000's that dropped heavy snow 12+ in in Charlotte and 12+ on the obx while rdu had a few inches. Bush was visiting Charlotte that day. I can't remember important shit, but I remember that for some reason. Anyway, the double jackpot dry slot blah blah can and has happened, but until the nws maps change, I am not buying it.

[ragtop50]

8 minutes ago, digital snow said:

RAH maps have consistently been showing more snow than forecast. TV mets have to be conservative, and I don't pay attention to social media mets for the obvious reasons. NWS has been consistently showing a jackpot from southern pines north to alamace/orange county line. I am with y'all. The models are not spitting out those numbers for the most part, but the nws maps keep going up. When that reverses course, I will change my thinking.

I also remember a storm in early/mid 2000's that dropped heavy snow 12+ in in Charlotte and 12+ on the obx while rdu had a few inches. Bush was visiting Charlotte that day. I can't remember important shit, but I remember that for some reason. Anyway, the double jackpot dry slot blah blah can and has happened, but until the nws maps change, I am not buying it.

During the Raleigh NWS briefing (posted on YouTube), they touch in this and emphasize that there very well could be a dry slot somewhere and that some people could end up with less than they are forecasting, but how do you put that on a map when you don't know where and to what degree (and it keeps changing)?  So their amounts are outside of that happening.  And just the same they mentioned some areas could obviously be higher.

 

 

[Snowncanes]

SREF plumes for RDU. 4 at 20+ 3 at 0. Crazy spread for 48 hours away

[oconeexman]

2 hours ago, lilj4425 said:

You talk to Bloo Q Kazoo. I’ll make you an appointment.

How u doing over her blue turd? I hope you get a foot!!

[Tony Sisk]

51 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Would you change to a Tiger?

I couldn’t do that! So funny!!

[digital snow]

Yes, it won't look like the map. Someone will see way less, maybe (probably) me. It is just odd that the models show certain trends and the tv mets are dry slot this lower totals that and the professionals keep putting out graphics that say hold my beer. New graphics just came out, no change. It's fascinating.

[Snowncanes]

Just now, digital snow said:

Yes, it won't look like the map. Someone will see way less, maybe (probably) me. It is just odd that the models show certain trends and the tv mets are dry slot this lower totals that and the professionals keep putting out graphics that say hold my beer. New graphics just came out, no change. It's fascinating.

They’re the pros for a reason, I would imagine they’re thinking the surface low forms a little closer to the coast per climo and holding off on changing anything until they see otherwise. Also really high rates are going to help them. 18-1 rates only need 1/2” qpf to give rdu 9”

[PackGrad05]

Removing the outliers, the sref plume shows 6 to 15 inches for rdu


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[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Ravens94]

Sref is moving to other guidance 

 

Reminder this is 10:1

[Aleksey]

North Gwinnett and into Hall County should see 2 or 3 inches. 

Winder (where I’m at) out to Athens is looking at 2-4” with the possibility of 5”. That’s a huge win for us!


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[Aleksey]

Haven’t seen much Atlanta commentary over last few hours but see some social media noise about things trending drier?  Still a chance at 1-2” in northern Atlanta metro.  

2-4” for me with the possibility of 5”


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[CaryWx]

13 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

SREF plumes for RDU. 4 at 20+ 3 at 0. Crazy spread for 48 hours away

Even if you remove those outliers the cluster in the middle is not concentrated.  Spread is still 5"-15" of snow

[CaryWx]

3 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Sref is moving to other guidance 

It can stop now

[suzook]

4 minutes ago, Aleksey said:

Winder (where I’m at) out to Athens is looking at 2-4” with the possibility of 5”. That’s a huge win for us!


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Still think it will be less. Very dry air here. Gonna take a bit to actually get precip on the ground. I think the models are overestimating the amount of precip that actually makes it to the ground, especially in the metro ATL area.