The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

FV3 looks similar to the NAM, just a little more north 

Nice deform band that basically stretches from RIC all the way back to NW GA.

[VBsurf]

Very well-done.  One minor adjustment I’d make would be to move “A” to encompass a *little* more of SE VA…as 3-7” seems a little too conservative for Norfolk, IMO.  

Maybe some bay enhancement as well? Being in Virginia Beach myself my only worry is the south shift closer to game time with this setup


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[BooneWX]

Just now, bigjohndc said:

Can a Met way in about the dry slot? Is it subsistence between the ULL and the coastal, with the moisture feed it should blossom, but doesn't seem to be happening.

I’m not a met, but you can tell the NAM has zero clue where to place the coastal. I’d think it’s some feedback issues but there will be a bust zone somewhere. You can’t have it hammering west and east with air sinking in middle. 

[Grayman]

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That’s through 60 right? Still a lot left to fall east of those areas.

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

If this continues this is brutal for Triangle.


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FV3 crushes I-40 at 12Z.

[PackGrad05]

Everyone relax.  Don't live and die by each model run.  The exact track will make a huge difference.  The NAM wasn't even finished.

[AirNelson39]

Rug feels like it’s getting pulled in Raleigh area

Certainly is, writing is on the wall. Globals will trend to this. Bookmark it. Biggest rug pull in the history of rug pulls for the triangle.

[buckeyefan1]

Ya’ll, PLEASE take your cliff diving to the appropriate thread. Thank you 

[Snowncanes]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

FV3 looks similar to the NAM, just a little more north 

I think it looks a good bit different at H5. Closes off the upper low much earlier, is more west, and goes neutral earlier. Blossoms the precip shield over NC much better and even takes care of our Atl people a bit. To me this is the thing we are looking for the most. How early can we get that low to close off and go negative. Makes all the difference in the world.

[olafminesaw]

This is a now-casting event. Please do not live and die by every run of the NAM. Someone will be in the screw zone, someone will get a surprise foot 

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Ya’ll, PLEASE take your cliff diving to the appropriate thread. Thank you 

Lol...we went through this 12 hours ago when they were cliff diving after the 0z Nam run. Fun thread to read back through 

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

I think it looks a good bit different at H5. Closes off the upper low much earlier, is more west, and goes neutral earlier. Blossoms the precip shield over NC much better and even takes care of our Atl people a bit. To me this is the thing we are looking for the most. How early can we get that low to close off and go negative. Makes all the difference in the world.

Exactly. The earlier this closes off, the more of this sub forum is happy. 

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

I think it looks a good bit different at H5. Closes off the upper low much earlier, is more west, and goes neutral earlier. Blossoms the precip shield over NC much better and even takes care of our Atl people a bit. To me this is the thing we are looking for the most. How early can we get that low to close off and go negative. Makes all the difference in the world.

1000% I also agree. This is actually a good thing happening and it goes to show the power of what an ULL can do. Everyone breathe haha.

[franklin NCwx]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

This is a now-casting event. Please do not live and die by every run of the NAM. Someone will be in the screw zone, someone will get a surprise foot 

How do you "now-cast" on an event that doesn't start for roughly 48 hours out?

[NorthHillsWx]

FV3 looks nice across the forum. Looking like it goes negative tilt. That’s the key for the coastal 

[lilj4425]

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

This is a now-casting event. Please do not live and die by every run of the NAM. Someone will be in the screw zone, someone will get a surprise foot 

Now-casting? It’s sunny outside. What a fail of a system.

[Snowncanes]

1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

How do you "now-cast" on an event that doesn't start for roughly 48 hours out?

What he means is everyone go stand outside with a thermometer and wait until things start falling from the sky instead of doomscrolling every model run haha

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

What he means is everyone go stand outside with a thermometer and wait until things start falling from the sky instead of doomscrolling every model run haha

Somebody in the MA forum had me dying because he recommended everyone go outside with their vacuums and suck all the air westward so the coastal would come this way. Then proceeded to create an AI generated photo with a bunch of people holding their vacuums high in the sky lollllll

All seriousness though, this is what we all enjoy to do is interpret models/data and then see things transpire. Yes it can drive you nuts but it's what we sign up for, knowing damn good and well we may get nothing. Live for the thrill of the moment. 

[tarheelwx]

NAM was very consistent calling out the drier solution last weekend.  I wouldn't discount it totally.  Actually it seems very logical to me.  Not agreeing, just saying it has merit.

TW

[NorthHillsWx]

FV3 is how we win as a forum. Smooth transition from ULL to coastal, negative tilt, no screw zone. Still a little funky with surface depiction of SLP for coastal but my guess is it cranks right off cape lookout if this goes out 6-10 more hours. That’s a pretty look for everyone 

[Buddy1987]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

FV3 is how we win as a forum. Smooth transition from ULL to coastal, negative tilt, no screw zone. Still a little funky with surface depiction of SLP for coastal but my guess is it cranks right off cape lookout if this goes out 6-10 more hours. That’s a pretty look for everyone 

FV3 is an absolute thing of beauty and would put all the worry bears to bed.

[Buddy1987]

SMOKED!

[USCG RS]

8 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

How do you "now-cast" on an event that doesn't start for roughly 48 hours out?

I think what they mean is that this is another very complicated set up. The ice storm last week had very complicated thermals. This one is a storm transfer over the area with questions of where this closes off. These scenarios tend to create rather hyper local outcomes due to where the moisture sets up and this can lead to significant subsidence in places depending on where banding sets up as well. It takes time for precip to blossom as well when storms are developing. This is where some persons were saying that smoothing of the mean creates qpf forecasts that appear uniform over an area but really aren't. 

So all of this together, it's another tough forecast leading to last minute trends and observations ruling the day. 

[stormwatcherJ]

Weenie question but i think relevant: when is this coastal low supposed to start forming? I hear the experts saying we'll have more reliable data once it starts forming. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Last RGEM was good too. With CSMs those are the two you want in your corner vs NAM suite. Definitely would like to see them converge but those are what we want other short range guidance to trend towards today 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Last RGEM was good too. With media those are the two you want in your corner vs NAM suite. Definitely would like to see them converge but those are what we want other short range guidance to trend towards today 

GRAF kinda mirrors the NAM, so I do think the concern is legit. It's wait and see time

[Regan]

I just don’t think it’ll be that extreme. 

[ADB83]

GRAF kinda mirrors the NAM, so I do think the concern is legit. It's wait and see time

I agree, but I actually think both points are valid. There is still considerable uncertainty, even this close to the event. Dry slots look likely now, but this is not gospel as to exactly where.


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[PeeDeeWx]

Confused why folks are upset over the latest NAM?

 

[olafminesaw]

Also I gotta say if you live in upstate SC/NE GA trends have been great for you guys over the past 12 hours. Would not be surprised at all to see Greenville SC get 6"+