The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[Icy Hot]

13 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Really hoping all our NC, SC, and GA friends can cash in. We are still waiting in NETN but I know for many of you, you've been waiting much longer.

[MDsnowPRO]

4 minutes ago, neverSnowsLCSC said:

How similar to the early January 2018 storm is this looking to be?

How are you feeling about the low country 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Allan Huffman

[StantonParkHoya]

GFS a tick SE


.

[eyewall]

GFS coming down closer to reality:

[ADB83]

A more believable run. A statewide win. Sign me up.


.

[calculus1]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

GFS a tick SE

What does this mean? The surface low? The upper low? The model snow or QPF output at the surface? I have no idea how to interpret this statement.

[Regan]

I’ll take it. 

[BornAgain13]

I think 18z GFS looks like a highly likely solution in my opinion. Sharp cut off in central VA and North Carolina gets smoked!

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

GFS coming down closer to reality:

We can live with this reality 

[Duncana]

WPC Latest Update:

 

[StantonParkHoya]

Confusing map by WPC


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[chris624wx]

Not liking that cutoff in Hampton Roads on the 18z GFS...

[WinstonSalemArlington]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

GFS coming down closer to reality:

I love it when “reality” involves two feet for Eastern North Carolina 

[CentralNC]

1 minute ago, chris624wx said:

Not liking that cutoff in Hampton Roads on the 18z GFS...

I think that is only through 0Z which is 7pm on saturday

[Stormpc]

1 minute ago, CentralNC said:

I think that is only through 0Z which is 7pm on saturday

I think he means the overall output from the GFS run. It really cut down the northern extent of the measurable snow

[chris624wx]

Just now, Stormpc said:

I think he means the overall output from the GFS run. It really cut down the northern extent of the measurable snow

Yeah, lost about 14'' from 12z GFS lol oh well

[Ephesians2]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I think 18z GFS looks like a highly likely solution in my opinion. Sharp cut off in central VA and North Carolina gets smoked!

I'll be sweating that cutoff here. I hope NC does well, but I also hope I don't get fringed twice in a row 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

I think he means the overall output from the GFS run. It really cut down the northern extent of the measurable snow

Yeah it cut totals in half in the Triad. Also more in line with It's ensembles

[lilj4425]

7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Confusing map by WPC


.

Seems pretty straight forward to me. They understand climo.

[calculus1]

From WPC this afternoon. Note the bold portion.

Quote

...Southern Appalachians & Mid-Atlantic...
Days 2.5-3.5...

...Confidence growing for a major winter storm & heavy snowfall
across the southern Mid-Atlantic...

WPC cluster analysis continues to show the primary driving factors
in the development of this impending winter storm are the
strength/speed/tilt of the approaching shortwave trough in the
Great Lakes and the spacing between the trough and the TPV over
southeast Canada. The meteorology is supportive of a significant
winter storm from the southern Appalachians and Carolinas on north
and east through the VA Tidewater. Just about all ensemble
guidance now show the shortwave trough over the OH Valley Friday
evening deepening into a powerful and highly anomalous closed low
that tracks into the southern Appalachians Saturday evening. By the
end of this forecast period (00Z Sun) the ECMWF 500mb heights are
approaching record low levels over the FL Panhandle for late Jan-
early Feb. As the 500mb low approaches, exceptional PVA and WAA
over the Mid-Atlantic coast will spawn low pressure along the
strengthening coastal front. This aligns well across the 12Z GFS
and 06Z ECMWF which show increasing 700mb Q-vector convergence near
the NC Outer Banks that fosters healthy mid-level ascent. This
aligns favorably beneath the diffluent left-exit region of a
>100kt 500mb jet streak located a the base of the closed 500mb low.
As the 700mb low tracks towards the Cape Fear region Saturday
night, the axis of heaviest snowfall will reside on the 700mb low's
northern and western flank.

Where guidance still disagrees is the progression of the storm and
its proximity to the coast. The tilt of the 500mb trough and closed
low plays a key role in this, as it maximizes vertical ascent and
draws moisture farther north if the system takes on a negative
tilt. The EC-AIFS ensemble mean has been gradually decreasing QPF
largely because the negative tilt takes longer to occur and there
is less time for the developing 850mb low to tap into moisture off
the Gulf Stream. Most guidance holds off on a negative until
Sunday, which is why there is a "gap" in the snowfall from northern
VA on up I-95 to the NYC metro area, but heavy snow becomes
possible over southeast New England by Sunday thanks to the region
sticking out eastward into the Atlantic. Note the 12Z GEFS, 06Z
EPS, and 12Z EC-AIFS ensembles are still showing changes in its
mean inside of 72 hours, so exact amounts and the expanse of the
snow shield are still likely to change. In addition, unlike the
last winter storm, wind will have a more profound impact up and
down the Eastern Seaboard. The 00Z ECMWF EFI shows wind speeds that
are topping 0.8 from the MA Capes on south along the NC Coast.
These anomalous winds also align with climatologically significant
snowfall potential along the coasts, indicating the concern for
blizzard conditions in affected coastal areas.

CIPS Analogs (GFS-based) continue to suggest this storm's
potential ceiling could be exceptional, particularly in the
Carolinas. CIPS is keying in on several past major winter storms
that featured similar 300mb & 500mb evolutions to what the GFS is
showing, just 100-200 miles farther south and east from where those
events unfolded. While the CIPS analogs are analyzing the GFS, the
differences in the GFS versus the ECMWF are not all that different
when it comes to the meteorology involved: powerful closed upper
low, healthy upper-level divergence over a strengthening coastal
front, and tapping into Atlantic moisture revolving around the
closed 700mb low. In summary-- ensembles are beginning to identify
the floor of this winter storm (disruptive winter storm in the
southern Mid-Atlantic) but based on some of the analogs, there is a
potentially more significant-ceiling that could be achieved in the
Carolinas should guidance consolidate on a slower and more intense
winter storm. Given it is 72 hours out, there remains some caution
when it comes to expected snowfall totals.

WPC probabilities through Saturday night currently show moderate-
to-high chances (50-80%) for snowfall totals >4" from the NC
Piedmont on east to eastern NC and southeast VA. It is worth noting
some higher end solutions are present with low-to-moderate chances
(30-50%) for snowfall totals >8" over central NC through 06Z
Sunday.

 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Seems pretty straight forward to me. They understand climo.

This plus highest ratios north and west. The closer you are to the surface low, the closer to 10:1 you are as well.

[ozzyman]

18 minutes ago, eyewall said:

GFS coming down closer to reality:

Is the precipitation hole over Pickens County and western Greenville County a result of downsloping from the mountains into the piedmont? 

[PenguinLover]

I've noticed a lack of snow coverage for N GA on the Euro and GFS compared to the Canadian models. I know the NAM has a moisture and humidity bias, so it's a bit worrying to me that the Canadian models have a larger precip shield than even the NAM. Not sure if ATL will cash in at all...

[WinstonSalemArlington]

3 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

From WPC this afternoon. Note the bold portion.

 

Boom: In summary-- ensembles are beginning to identify the floor of this winter storm (disruptive winter storm in the southern Mid-Atlantic) but based on some of the analogs, there is a potentially more significant-ceiling that could be achieved in the Carolinas should guidance consolidate on a slower and more intense winter storm.

[PenguinLover]

I'm nervous about this one 

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, PenguinLover said:

I've noticed a lack of snow coverage for N GA on the Euro and GFS compared to the Canadian models. I know the NAM has a moisture and humidity bias, so it's a bit worrying to me that the Canadian models have a larger precip shield than even the NAM. Not sure if ATL will cash in at all...

They don't dig the upper low as far west as the other models. You want the upper low to dig into Mississippi/Bama then go negative tilt south of Atlanta. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

WFMY Graf: https://x.com/timbuckleywx/status/2016637472973717774?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

[BornAgain13]

18z GEFS with a small tick south but not much. Has similarities to 12z. 

[mstr4j]

27 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We can live with this reality 

I would kill for this...Spartanburg needs a 25-40 mile shift or 1 deformation band!  Please! 7 inches at 10:1 would be life changing here 15-20:1