Icy Hot Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 13 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Really hoping all our NC, SC, and GA friends can cash in. We are still waiting in NETN but I know for many of you, you've been waiting much longer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, neverSnowsLCSC said: How similar to the early January 2018 storm is this looking to be? How are you feeling about the low country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Allan Huffman 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 GFS a tick SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 GFS coming down closer to reality: 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 A more believable run. A statewide win. Sign me up. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: GFS a tick SE What does this mean? The surface low? The upper low? The model snow or QPF output at the surface? I have no idea how to interpret this statement. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I think 18z GFS looks like a highly likely solution in my opinion. Sharp cut off in central VA and North Carolina gets smoked! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, eyewall said: GFS coming down closer to reality: We can live with this reality 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncana Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 WPC Latest Update: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Confusing map by WPC. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORFDawg2013 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Not liking that cutoff in Hampton Roads on the 18z GFS... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: GFS coming down closer to reality: I love it when “reality” involves two feet for Eastern North Carolina 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, chris624wx said: Not liking that cutoff in Hampton Roads on the 18z GFS... I think that is only through 0Z which is 7pm on saturday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, CentralNC said: I think that is only through 0Z which is 7pm on saturday I think he means the overall output from the GFS run. It really cut down the northern extent of the measurable snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORFDawg2013 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Stormpc said: I think he means the overall output from the GFS run. It really cut down the northern extent of the measurable snow Yeah, lost about 14'' from 12z GFS lol oh well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I think 18z GFS looks like a highly likely solution in my opinion. Sharp cut off in central VA and North Carolina gets smoked! I'll be sweating that cutoff here. I hope NC does well, but I also hope I don't get fringed twice in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Stormpc said: I think he means the overall output from the GFS run. It really cut down the northern extent of the measurable snow Yeah it cut totals in half in the Triad. Also more in line with It's ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Confusing map by WPC . Seems pretty straight forward to me. They understand climo. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 From WPC this afternoon. Note the bold portion. Quote ...Southern Appalachians & Mid-Atlantic... Days 2.5-3.5... ...Confidence growing for a major winter storm & heavy snowfall across the southern Mid-Atlantic... WPC cluster analysis continues to show the primary driving factors in the development of this impending winter storm are the strength/speed/tilt of the approaching shortwave trough in the Great Lakes and the spacing between the trough and the TPV over southeast Canada. The meteorology is supportive of a significant winter storm from the southern Appalachians and Carolinas on north and east through the VA Tidewater. Just about all ensemble guidance now show the shortwave trough over the OH Valley Friday evening deepening into a powerful and highly anomalous closed low that tracks into the southern Appalachians Saturday evening. By the end of this forecast period (00Z Sun) the ECMWF 500mb heights are approaching record low levels over the FL Panhandle for late Jan- early Feb. As the 500mb low approaches, exceptional PVA and WAA over the Mid-Atlantic coast will spawn low pressure along the strengthening coastal front. This aligns well across the 12Z GFS and 06Z ECMWF which show increasing 700mb Q-vector convergence near the NC Outer Banks that fosters healthy mid-level ascent. This aligns favorably beneath the diffluent left-exit region of a >100kt 500mb jet streak located a the base of the closed 500mb low. As the 700mb low tracks towards the Cape Fear region Saturday night, the axis of heaviest snowfall will reside on the 700mb low's northern and western flank. Where guidance still disagrees is the progression of the storm and its proximity to the coast. The tilt of the 500mb trough and closed low plays a key role in this, as it maximizes vertical ascent and draws moisture farther north if the system takes on a negative tilt. The EC-AIFS ensemble mean has been gradually decreasing QPF largely because the negative tilt takes longer to occur and there is less time for the developing 850mb low to tap into moisture off the Gulf Stream. Most guidance holds off on a negative until Sunday, which is why there is a "gap" in the snowfall from northern VA on up I-95 to the NYC metro area, but heavy snow becomes possible over southeast New England by Sunday thanks to the region sticking out eastward into the Atlantic. Note the 12Z GEFS, 06Z EPS, and 12Z EC-AIFS ensembles are still showing changes in its mean inside of 72 hours, so exact amounts and the expanse of the snow shield are still likely to change. In addition, unlike the last winter storm, wind will have a more profound impact up and down the Eastern Seaboard. The 00Z ECMWF EFI shows wind speeds that are topping 0.8 from the MA Capes on south along the NC Coast. These anomalous winds also align with climatologically significant snowfall potential along the coasts, indicating the concern for blizzard conditions in affected coastal areas.CIPS Analogs (GFS-based) continue to suggest this storm's potential ceiling could be exceptional, particularly in the Carolinas. CIPS is keying in on several past major winter storms that featured similar 300mb & 500mb evolutions to what the GFS is showing, just 100-200 miles farther south and east from where those events unfolded. While the CIPS analogs are analyzing the GFS, the differences in the GFS versus the ECMWF are not all that different when it comes to the meteorology involved: powerful closed upper low, healthy upper-level divergence over a strengthening coastal front, and tapping into Atlantic moisture revolving around the closed 700mb low. In summary-- ensembles are beginning to identify the floor of this winter storm (disruptive winter storm in the southern Mid-Atlantic) but based on some of the analogs, there is a potentially more significant-ceiling that could be achieved in the Carolinas should guidance consolidate on a slower and more intense winter storm. Given it is 72 hours out, there remains some caution when it comes to expected snowfall totals. WPC probabilities through Saturday night currently show moderate- to-high chances (50-80%) for snowfall totals >4" from the NC Piedmont on east to eastern NC and southeast VA. It is worth noting some higher end solutions are present with low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for snowfall totals >8" over central NC through 06Z Sunday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Seems pretty straight forward to me. They understand climo. This plus highest ratios north and west. The closer you are to the surface low, the closer to 10:1 you are as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozzyman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 18 minutes ago, eyewall said: GFS coming down closer to reality: Is the precipitation hole over Pickens County and western Greenville County a result of downsloping from the mountains into the piedmont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PenguinLover Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I've noticed a lack of snow coverage for N GA on the Euro and GFS compared to the Canadian models. I know the NAM has a moisture and humidity bias, so it's a bit worrying to me that the Canadian models have a larger precip shield than even the NAM. Not sure if ATL will cash in at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, calculus1 said: From WPC this afternoon. Note the bold portion. Boom: In summary-- ensembles are beginning to identify the floor of this winter storm (disruptive winter storm in the southern Mid-Atlantic) but based on some of the analogs, there is a potentially more significant-ceiling that could be achieved in the Carolinas should guidance consolidate on a slower and more intense winter storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PenguinLover Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I'm nervous about this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, PenguinLover said: I've noticed a lack of snow coverage for N GA on the Euro and GFS compared to the Canadian models. I know the NAM has a moisture and humidity bias, so it's a bit worrying to me that the Canadian models have a larger precip shield than even the NAM. Not sure if ATL will cash in at all... They don't dig the upper low as far west as the other models. You want the upper low to dig into Mississippi/Bama then go negative tilt south of Atlanta. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 WFMY Graf: https://x.com/timbuckleywx/status/2016637472973717774?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 18z GEFS with a small tick south but not much. Has similarities to 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mstr4j Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 27 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: We can live with this reality I would kill for this...Spartanburg needs a 25-40 mile shift or 1 deformation band! Please! 7 inches at 10:1 would be life changing here 15-20:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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