CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 43 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Also two days in a row waking up to @CAPE calling people’s analysis lazy lol. Unlike yesterday, that wasn't really directed at anyone, just a general statement. I was actually replying to my own post lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: looks like a mix of 1966, 1978, 1993 and 2003 someone gave JB access to the google model making feature 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 looks like a mix of 1966, 1978, 1993 and 2003JB created it in a lab. Frankenhecs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: looks like a mix of 1966, 1978, 1993 and 2003 so much changed. the lead wave was suppose to cut under the block. but this look now is completely different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: looks like a mix of 1966, 1978, 1993 and 2003 Except with warm rain? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 9 minutes ago, Ji said: so much changed. the lead wave was suppose to cut under the block. but this look now is completely different You know how this works. As we get closer, errors in previous simulated outcomes get incrementally corrected until we arrive at the actual outcome, which is yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 44 minutes ago, Ji said: so much changed. the lead wave was suppose to cut under the block. but this look now is completely different The blocking trended better but the wave leaves too much energy behind and the EPS washes it out on most members as the weaker wave that ejects gets shredded by the flow. We need a stronger wave with that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Heading for a different result on the gfs for next weekend but not sure they'll be any cold air left 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 GFS has a good slug of precip to our SW, but is gonna fuck it up with retreating thermals next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Some weak CAD...zero isotherm is barely south of DC with precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I mean, the takeaway is still....we trackin' next week. STORMTRACKIN' 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Talk about a thread the needle lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Honestly, it's not bad. Especially for it being the suck ass GFS. Cold enough that it's not rain...warm enough that it's not all snow for everyone. N and W of the fall line appears to be snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Talk about a thread the needle lol If you don't take this run verbatim wrt to temps, it's not that bad. Cold is close enough and...it's the GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: If you don't take this run verbatim wrt to temps, it's not that bad. Cold is close enough and...it's the GFS Preach 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: If you don't take this run verbatim wrt to temps, it's not that bad. Cold is close enough and...it's the GFS It actually looks alot like the Euro AI has its past several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If you don't take this run verbatim wrt to temps, it's not that bad. Cold is close enough and...it's the GFS We do thump per the WxBell maps. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Well the last 3 runs of the GFS have been completely different for this time period so take it with a grain of salt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Easy buy 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: We do thump per the WxBell maps. Things always look so much better with the pretty maps. That thump is nice. Any accum maps yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Easy buy Well shitfire. Yeah..No questions. Take. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well shitfire. Yeah..No questions. Take. DC flips just barely. Would be solved with better rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Easy buy Oh look, Hagerstown doesn't get screwed. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 CMC has something similar looking. Not nearly as good*, but there *talking about DC - cville/south will prefer this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: We do thump per the WxBell maps. Man that is a sad amount of frozen frozen for mid February. Either way it does work out for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: CMC has something similar looking. Not nearly as good*, but there *talking about DC - cville/south will prefer this Meh, it has the same problem. Just such a small amount of frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: CMC has something similar looking. Not nearly as good*, but there *talking about DC - cville/south will prefer this CMC looks weird. At least on pivotal. Jumps precip all around us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: CMC looks weird. At least on pivotal. Jumps precip all around us Kinda shears out. Agree it's odd. But the GFS run also looked a little funky so maybe it's just a funky period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 GFS tries with the Feb 20 @CAPE potential 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Kinda shears out. Agree it's odd. But the GFS run also looked a little funky so maybe it's just a funky period So what do we think is more likely, this map that jackpots the Alleghenies or the one that jackpots the piedmont/coastal plain? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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