February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Chris78]

Aigfs joined the euro AI in liking next weekend. Long way to go for this one...

[anotherman]

Two days in a row waking up to people saying winter is over.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO AI says we are still tracking next weekend's system.

[Kevin Reilly]

11 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Two days in a row waking up to people saying winter is over.

The ground hog must wrong then.

[Weather Will]

Ridiculous to say winter is over with the arctic blast arriving this evening. Bunch of spoiled brats!!!! WB 6Z 3K NAM for tomorrow. 

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS extended says cold and stormy between February 22 and March 22.  Will it actually snow?  Who knows....but this is not a winter is definitely over look.

[Terpeast]

MJO going into phase 3 by mid-late Feb. 

MJO 1 (where we currently are) in a weak nina (-GLAAM regime) is actually warm for the east, 2 less so, and 3 is cold. Usually assume a few days lag, so the "warm up" behind the frigid saturday makes sense.

[GreyHat]

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended says cold and stormy between February 22 and March 22.  Will it actually snow?  Who knows....but this is not a winter is definitely over look.

Yeah, are those departures from normal temperature? Snow map can't be taken seriously for that long period of time.

I will say delmarva was supposed to have mid 40s mid8of next week through next weekend.  That's changed to mid upper 30s. The long range forecast for around 17-20 has possible upper 30s low 40s with showers and freezing rain,  something we definitely don't want. 

Those long range will definitely keep changing as the transition from winter to spring starts to happen. 

[CAPE]

The shortwave of interest for next weekend weakens in the convergence behind the NS energy on the ens means similar to the op runs. As we know, models rarely(never) have the location and timing of these wave interactions nailed a week out. Plenty of time for corrections.

[CAPE]

Still liking this window a lot right now, but way out there.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EPS AI still looks good for next weekend. About 40% of members with a nice hit.

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS AI still looks good for next weekend. About 40% of members with a nice hit.

Those maps are not for next weekend, that's total snow. More like 2-4" on the mean, which is ok if it isnt skewed by a handful of members. If you look at the 6 hour panels per member for the period it isn't that impressive.