February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Chris78]

Aigfs joined the euro AI in liking next weekend. Long way to go for this one...

[anotherman]

Two days in a row waking up to people saying winter is over.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO AI says we are still tracking next weekend's system.

[Kevin Reilly]

11 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Two days in a row waking up to people saying winter is over.

The ground hog must wrong then.

[Weather Will]

Ridiculous to say winter is over with the arctic blast arriving this evening. Bunch of spoiled brats!!!! WB 6Z 3K NAM for tomorrow. 

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS extended says cold and stormy between February 22 and March 22.  Will it actually snow?  Who knows....but this is not a winter is definitely over look.

[Terpeast]

MJO going into phase 3 by mid-late Feb. 

MJO 1 (where we currently are) in a weak nina (-GLAAM regime) is actually warm for the east, 2 less so, and 3 is cold. Usually assume a few days lag, so the "warm up" behind the frigid saturday makes sense.

[GreyHat]

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended says cold and stormy between February 22 and March 22.  Will it actually snow?  Who knows....but this is not a winter is definitely over look.

Yeah, are those departures from normal temperature? Snow map can't be taken seriously for that long period of time.

I will say delmarva was supposed to have mid 40s mid8of next week through next weekend.  That's changed to mid upper 30s. The long range forecast for around 17-20 has possible upper 30s low 40s with showers and freezing rain,  something we definitely don't want. 

Those long range will definitely keep changing as the transition from winter to spring starts to happen. 

[CAPE]

The shortwave of interest for next weekend weakens in the convergence behind the NS energy on the ens means similar to the op runs. As we know, models rarely(never) have the location and timing of these wave interactions nailed a week out. Plenty of time for corrections.

[CAPE]

Still liking this window a lot right now, but way out there.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EPS AI still looks good for next weekend. About 40% of members with a nice hit.

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS AI still looks good for next weekend. About 40% of members with a nice hit.

Those maps are not for next weekend, that's total snow. More like 2-4" on the mean, which is ok if it isnt skewed by a handful of members. If you look at the 6 hour panels per member for the period it isn't that impressive.

[NorthArlington101]

Those maps are not for next weekend, that's total snow. More like 2-4" on the mean, which is ok if it isnt skewed by a handful of members. If you look at the 6 hour panels per member for the period it isn't that impressive.

It’s total snow out to 264 - 95% of which is from the PD weekend. Median climbed up to 2” as well

Problem with the AIFS Ens is they can’t tell mix/cold rain apart from snow sometimes. Don’t know if I trust them.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s total snow out to 264 - 95% of which is from the PD weekend. Median climbed up to 2” as well

Problem with the AIFS Ens is they can’t tell mix/cold rain apart from snow sometimes. Don’t know if I trust them.

Where are you getting 95% from? Some members have an event on Thursday with a lead wave, and some show something for early the following week. So is next weekend Thursday through Tuesday?

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the AI EPS 72 hour snow from 2/13 am to 2/16 am.

Here is also the 50th percentile map through 2/13 am & through 2/16 am. Very little snow falls before 2/13, so the window for next weekend is evident at least in terms of snow maps.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Where are you getting 95% from? Some members have an event on Thursday with a lead wave, and some show something for early the following week. So is next weekend Thursday through Tuesday?

This is why mean snowfall at range is of limited value. Difficult to know what each member is keying on for precip. The lazy thing to do is to guess that its simply timing differences wrt one wave and take the total over 3-4 days.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z AI EPS compared to 0Z for next Sunday am looks North and stronger to me.

[Weather Will]

Another comparison:  24 hour precip ending next Sunday 7pm WB 6Z AI EPS compared to 0Z also improved.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Another comparison:  24 hour precip ending next Sunday 7pm WB 6Z AI EPS compared to 0Z also improved.

I'm assuming the regular eps isn't nearly as Gung go as the AI counterparts since no one is posting them

[Weather Will]

10 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I'm assuming the regular eps isn't nearly as Gung go as the AI counterparts since no one is posting them

6Z EPS stops at 6 days.  0Z EPS was pretty meh for next weekend.

[NorthArlington101]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Where are you getting 95% from? Some members have an event on Thursday with a lead wave, and some show something for early the following week. So is next weekend Thursday through Tuesday?

Not sure why you are harping on this so much - but here is the 3day period for PD weekend. I would probably consider the 5 days the whole of that threat window anyway. But as for “literally” the weekend…  maybe 90%? The Thursday threat adds like .3” on the mean. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

6Z EPS stops at 6 days.  0Z EPS was pretty meh.

0z wasn't bad- it had a decent amount of precip and the wonderful snow mean was 1-2".

[CAPE]

45 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Not sure why you are harping on this so much - but here is the 3day period for PD weekend. I would probably consider the 5 days the whole of that threat window anyway. But as for “literally” the weekend…  maybe 90%? The Thursday threat adds like .3” on the mean. 

In my initial reply to Will's total snowfall post I said it was realistically more like 2-4" across the area for that window.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 hours ago, anotherman said:

Two days in a row waking up to people saying winter is over.

Also two days in a row waking up to @CAPE calling people’s analysis lazy lol. 

[SnowenOutThere]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Not sure why you are harping on this so much

You should send him a strongly worded pm to let him know your thoughts 

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

You should send him a strongly worded pm to let him know your thoughts 

And your income lol

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

And your income lol

$149,969. 

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE  WRT AIFS ENS  There are only 2 members that have any snow at all from the lead wave next week.  The median snowfall from Saturday evening to Monday evening of PD weekend is about 3-4" across our area.  The mean is closer to 5".  The split is about 30% of the members have a VERY big storm with a classic 95 points NW MECS/HECS signature.  Then there are another 20% that have something pretty decent...2-4 to 4-6" type storms...a few members have something very minor and about 40% have absolutely nothing.  

It was an improvement over the last 3 runs and got us back to where we were 24 hours ago when I made that post showing how "interesting" they looked.  BUt yes...the total mean is inflated some.

BTW, they are interested in your window too...the median spikes up another 1-3" during your period and the mean about 2-3" which is significant for that lead time

[Weather Will]

Latest Google whatever it is model from WB's JB post. Day 10.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Latest Google whatever it is model from WB's JB post. Day 10.

looks like a mix of 1966, 1978, 1993 and 2003