OBS: 1/25-26 Snow/Sleet

[ForestHillWx]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

FWIW the 3k NAM has sleet to Staten Island by about 2pm over to I-80 in NJ and to the Tappan Zee/my backyard/West Milford by 3pm. It's quite wet, 1.5" liquid or more for most. 

Really nowcast time, but that’s south of last nights runs; I believe the NAM pushed the mix line to Port Jervis. 

NWS just put up a heavy snow advisory for my area. 6 degrees with 3.5” down. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

Closing in on 4 here on 0.16 LE  25:1 or better ratios

 

Its crazy because i put the chart up for ratios,a lot of folks weren't buying it. Rn im at 26 to 25 to 1@9 degrees. Close to 4@home.

[SACRUS]

 

It's always been a front end with best ratios ahead of the mixing and   each hour the sleet doesnt arrive is 1-2 inches more ahead of the mix.   

[BoulderWX]

Morristown: 3.75” - 12* - Heavy snow

[SACRUS]

 

Not sure why there are two threads for this storm?  Harder to follow the different convos.  Why not merge the obs and storm discussion into one thread - imo.

 

11 / 8 SN

[wthrmn654]

Extremely icy,  route 25 was snow covered and I was spinning wheels before dot went by.  

[Snowlover11]

8F

4”

[RKO36]

Not quite 4" of snow in central Edison.  Started to get heavy about 20 minutes ago.

[495weatherguy]

Eyeball somewhere around 3 inches, in Melville LI

Intensity has varied for last 90 mins

 

[Northof78]

Friend in N MD already has 9" with heavy snow (roughly 1.5"/hr.) And NAM gave him a storm total of 5"....

[wthrmn654]

Just now, Northof78 said:

Friend in N MD already has 9" with heavy snow (roughly 1.5"/hr.) And NAM gave him a storm total of 5"....

Tell @eduggs that

[Franklin0529]

My sister in Galloway got 5.5" already 10 mins from Atlantic City. Was only forecast for 3-5" in Mt Holly New update. Said it's still snowing really hard

[sussexcountyobs]

Just measured 4.75" +4.7F

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Friend in N MD already has 9" with heavy snow (roughly 1.5"/hr.) And NAM gave him a storm total of 5"....

The problem is the snow map algorithm can't accurately predict ratios. So if the says you get 5 out of .3" and were at 20 or 25:1 then you add a few inches to that

[SACRUS]

Mix line to about SNJ between Wild Wood and Atlantic city. At the current rate of progression it looks to mix in CNJ between 11 - 1Pm and NNJ/ EWR / NYC  between 1 - 3 PM.  So another solid 3 - 4 hours of 1-3 inch an hour rates gets a mojority >10 then whatever additional snow/sleet mix falls after 3pm and 10pm.

 

 

[winterwarlock]

about 3 here in Belle Mead NJ

[lee59]

13.5 degrees, 2.5 inches of snow.

[winterwarlock]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

Mix line to about SNJ between Wild Wood and Atlantic city. At the current rate of progression it looks to mix in CNJ between 11 - 1Pm and NNJ/ EWR / NYC  between 1 - 3 PM.  So another solid 3 - 4 hours of 1-3 inch an hour rates gets a mojority >10 then whatever additional snow/sleet mix falls after 3pm and 10pm.

 

 

this seems a bit quicker than progged? is there a best radar to track this

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Sleet line southern NJ cape may area 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Weak coastal off hatteras,nc currently, the tug of war has started. This is where models start to waffle. Almost every model has the weak coastal just off the nj coast later. 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Weak coastal off hatteras,nc currently, the tug of war has started. This is where models start to waffle. Almost every model has the weak coastal just off the nj coast later. 

Imagine if this gets suppressed. 

[SACRUS]

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

this seems a bit quicker than progged? is there a best radar to track this

 

9 of 10 times its quicker in my experience.  The bonus / counter has been the front end WAA overrunning with 20:1 / 25:1 ratios.  Of the 1.5 QPF if we can get 0.7 or better than half on the front end the >10 inches will be common for most.  NNJ >12

[TJW014]

3.5" as of 9:45. Temp up to 30. 

[jm1220]

PHL radar looks amazing-here comes the money 4-5 hours. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Imagine if this gets suppressed. 

Not so sure about that 

[JonClaw]

Incredibly fine flakes out there

[allgame830]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Mix line to about SNJ between Wild Wood and Atlantic city. At the current rate of progression it looks to mix in CNJ between 11 - 1Pm and NNJ/ EWR / NYC  between 1 - 3 PM.  So another solid 3 - 4 hours of 1-3 inch an hour rates gets a mojority >10 then whatever additional snow/sleet mix falls after 3pm and 10pm.

 

 

Right but most models had the mix line getting to a certain spot then collapsing back south. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

[jdj5211]

Very fine flakes all morning in Montville off 287. Haven’t seen any larger flakes yet. Guessing about 2-3 inches this far


.

[SACRUS]

 

Piling up 4.5 - 5 here now (Monroe, NJ - CNJ)